63 Comments
User's avatar
Jeff J's avatar

I think is a major crack that will eventually get bigger

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Jeff J...it is...and...yes...MUCH bigger. I genuinely believe that.

-Jack

Marjorie LaRico's avatar

I agree.

Lisa Abramson's avatar

All I felt was a dog whistle to blame Israel and AIPAC, or to put it plainly, the Jews, without giving Trump any responsibility. Buckle up Jewish people and get ready for some intense antisemitism.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Lisa...you’re picking up on something real here...the way blame gets redirected or framed absolutely matters, especially in moments like this.

When tensions rise around foreign policy and war...it’s not uncommon to see narratives shift toward broad...simplified targets...and...historically...that’s where things can get dangerous fast.

That concern you’re raising...about how language can open the door to antisemitism...certainly isn’t coming out of nowhere.

And...at the same time, what makes this moment complicated...and why it’s getting so much attention...is that there are multiple layers of accountability...all being debated at once:

The administration’s decisions...the intelligence framing...and outside influence. When those all collide...people tend to zero in on different parts of the story.

But...your instinct to watch how rhetoric evolves from here...is EXACTLY right. These are the kinds of moments...where tone, framing...and who gets blamed...start to matter just as much as the underlying policy itself.

-Jack

CJ Bair's avatar

This is Bigger-

His resignation is big.

That he absolutely contradicts the administration’s stated reason for attacking Iran,

is huge.

And the timing…

is interesting…

it’s at the same time…

same time…

that NATO responded “NO” to the President…

when he asked for help…

The president looks like he’s been…

and is being… manipulated…

he looks weak…

MANIPULATED

cj

Jack Hopkins's avatar

CJ...exactly. It’s the convergence that makes this feel bigger.

Not just a resignation. Not just a contradiction. But...a senior insider...breaking ranks while allied resistance shows up at the same time.

That’s when it starts to look less like a one-off and more like...STRAIN...breaking through the surface.

Yes...the overall effect is weakness...NOT control. That’s why this moment stands out.

-Jack

David Black MD's avatar

I'd like to think it would get bigger.

I have ZERO CONFIDENCE in the American people.

NOT ONLY those who voted for this,

But the MILLIONS MORE who are silent.

When has anybody in Congress even tried?

Is there no one in America who cares?

Likely no.

I'm thinking of Kerensky and the Russian Duma in the time after the Tsar

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Dr. Black...I get the despair (or whatever other word would more accurately fit) behind this, and I don’t think it’s irrational.

A hell of a lot of people feel like they are watching something enormous unfold...while too many others...do very little...stay passive...quiet...distracted, and/or willing to rationalize any damn thing.

That kind of silence does something to you. It makes you start wondering whether the country has any REAL immune system...or "BALLS" left at all.

I think you nailed it regarding the broader problem...not just the people who voted for this... but the millions who keep seeing enough to know better and still say nothing.

I’m not willing to say no one cares. But...yeah..I do think we are living through a period where courage is clearly in VERY short supply...especially in the places...where it would unquestionably matter most.

That’s part of why moments like this matter so much. They’re not enough. Not even close. But...people like Kent are reminders that the silence is not total...and that reminder does matter.

Your frustration is earned. So is your lack of confidence. I get it.

-Jack

Roberta's avatar

Quick comment: I think he will be painted as a know-nothing by the administration. Not sure the general public will pay attention, but others in the administration who feel the same way may see this as a way to jump ship, too.

Susan Pethick's avatar

Wouldn't that be great? (fingers crossed)

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Damn right, Susan.

-Jack

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Roberta...I think that’s exactly right.

Publicly, the instinct will be to minimize him...discredit him...and paint him as weak or uninformed. That part is predictable. Spot on.

But...the more important audience...may not be the general public at all. It may be...the people INSIDE the administration...who have had similar doubts, and are now seeing that someone at Kent’s level...was willing to say it out loud...and then walk his ass out.

That’s how these things can start to spread...not all at once...through public opinion, but through permission structures INSIDE the system.

-Jack

J. B. Levin's avatar

"Do you see this as a one-off disagreement…" you ask.

No. There have been some resignations already, I believe at lower levels. I have been waiting for more higher level departures, hopefully with reasons shared that go beyond "personal reasons", etc. But this resignation statement goes above and beyond, and I think there will be more.

After this it's hard to be patient, but I think more like this is coming.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Exactly, J.B. That’s how I read it too.

This does not feel isolated. It feels like part of a pattern that has not fully surfaced...yet.

There have already been lower-level exits...but this is different. This is higher-level...far more explicit...and....a LOT harder to wave away with the usual “personal reasons” fog.

And that...is what makes it matter.

Once someone at this level...says something this DIRECT...it becomes easier for others to do the same. That does NOT mean a flood starts tomorrow. But...it does mean the barrier gets lower.

I also think your read on patience is dead on. It is hard to be patient after something like this...for damn sure... especially when the stakes are this high. But...moments like this are often less important as isolated events....than as permission structures...for what comes next.

My guess...is the same as yours: more is coming. The question is not whether this stands alone forever. The question is who follows...and how blunt they are when they do.

-Jack

Roberta's avatar

We shall see. Thanks for the analysis, as always. #HoldingABitFaster

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Roberta...you're welcome, as always!

Keep #HoldingABitFaster

-Jack

Elizabeth George's avatar

Except...people are dying. So, to me, it's not enough to watch for signs that Trump's hold on the government looks to be weakening.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Yes, people are dying, Elizabeth. No question.

But...I would ask this: which reality would you rather be facing?

People are dying, and Trump’s grip on the government appears to be weakening.

or

People are dying, and Trump’s grip on the government appears to be strengthening.

In a perfect world, simply watching for signs that his hold is weakening...would feel nowhere near enough. I agree with that.

But..the reality is that...as citizens...there are times when our power is limited, and all we can do in the moment is recognize those shifts for what they are.

-Jack

Judy Robinson's avatar

Elizabeth, thank you for caring about lives, and please know that we all care about the lives, for sure. That is one of many reasons why we must see this resignation of Kent as the big beginning of a roll.

If T. cared about lives of all people, there would be no raids, no imprisonment and deportations where people are left to die, no ordering of troops to attack anywhere, or of anybody else to attack.

He wants and wanted a war, a symbol of power added to his name, and a huge distraction, as well as a possible reason for calling emergency status to foil or at least to prevent an election which probably would. and definitely should, result in his impeachment as well as his being out of office permanently, as opposed to staying in control beyond his term and against the rules of our Constitution.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

What a brilliant synthesis, Judy!

-Jack

Judy Robinson's avatar

Why, thank you, Jack!

Cherae Stone's avatar

The fact that he used the deaths of our devoted service members should show us all how much he cares about ANY of us. Never mind the damn ball cap. No couth, no respect, no CLUE!

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Nailed it, Rae!

-Jack

Morgan's avatar

Spot on Judy

Karen Scofield's avatar

Not Good News😱 but, Happy St.Patrick's Day ☘️🍻‼️

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Happy St. Patrick's Day to YOU, Karen! I'm just getting ready to boil cabbage and potatoes!

-Jack

Pamela H's avatar

I’m reading it as someone in a critical job unwilling to go along with the charade. I expect the fallout to grow.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

I believe you nailed it, Pamela H. You did.

-Jack

Becky G's avatar

Honestly, I don’t know enough psychopaths to speculate on what comes next. Even the most brilliant strategist would be hard pressed to resolve the Cuban humanitarian crisis, protect our soldiers sent into impossible danger, withdraw from an un-winnable war, and reign in out of control Washed out Office of Orderly Reverse Migration Schemers (WOORMS or I.C.E.).

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Becky G...that’s exactly it. The damage is so widespread...and the moving parts are so dangerous...that “what comes next” is not some neat strategy puzzle. It’s triage inside a fire.

You’re also right that it’s not just one crisis. It’s overlapping crises...humanitarian collapse, troops put in harm’s way...a war with no clean exit...and an enforcement machine that has spun far beyond anything resembling restraint or sanity.

That’s what makes this moment so brutal. Even...a highly competent administration would be strained by this. In the hands of people this reckless...cruel...and disordered...the risks multiply fast.

YES...WOORMS is darkly brilliant!

-Jack

Judy Robinson's avatar

Jack, thank you for this newsletter. Definitely, I believe that Kent’s resignation letter with his explanation of disagreement of any reason for the United States to attack, and citing lack of any provocation on the part of Iran, absolutely should be the huge beginning of people in the regime coming forward with the truth. Everyone should be in agreement with Kent, if they have been paying attention.

I said “should be the beginning” because I believe that without exception. Naturally, there are followers of the executive officeholder who declared the war unconstitutionally, and without any proof of actual provocation, but those followers do not pay attention to reason, as opposed to paying attention to why they were fed on their televised news sources.

I hope that they will pay attention to the words of Kent in his letter. Unfortunately, they will probably pay attention to the fact that he has resigned and to the degrading comments made by the leader who declared the war. It is beyond sad, beyond unfortunate, that strong followers of him refuse to listen to any explanation other than what they get from their favorite news source, the source that is replayed regularly to reinforce, encourage verbal repetition, and brainwash them, no matter how manipulated and untrue the information is.

I believe that his followers should examine the fact that T. runs many people down verbally, including military people, and one example would be a former presidential candidate most of them favored, a senator, a former prisoner of war, a hero. By examining that information alone, and then recalling the words of despise used by the current office holder, as he called soldiers suckers, should be more impactful, especially if they themselves or a loved one or more are likely to be pulled into this uncalled for war, by enlisting or by draft, or by current position. When there was no threat to us, when the war was only started because T. said to do it, what on Earth could any person think they were fighting for or sending their loved ones to fight for?

Why would they fail to realize that our true allies of decades have been cut off and mistreated by the current president, and that he turned his back on NATO? He wants to drag them into a war with Iran, and so far. they are by the truth, finding no provocation.

When will true realization occur? It seems that everybody should see the truth. If there are attacks here and I hope and pray there never shall be, it most likely would be due to the fact that unprovoked attacks were made on Iran, at the direction only of the person who claimed to feel it in his bones.

Further, the declarer claims to have talked to a former president who wishes he had made the attacks while president. No living president has had such a conversation or such a wish, as per the conversations of investigation with each living president, and the reporting by Aaron Parnas. That leaves only the current president as a living president who could have that wish.

# HOLDFAST!

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Judy Robinson...this is a strong, thoughtful read! You’re zeroing in on exactly why this moment matters.

Kent’s resignation isn’t just about his personal position. It’s about what happens when someone...inside the system...says, plainly, “this doesn’t add up.” That’s the part that can open the door for OTHERS.

You’re right to focus on that...because once that door cracks...it becomes easier for more people to step through it...ESPECIALLY if they’ve been holding similar concerns...quietly.

Your point about how people process information is also real. Very much so. Some will engage with what was actually said in the resignation. Others...will focus on how it was framed for them afterward. That split...is part of what makes moments like this feel so frustrating.

But where I think you’re especially on target is this:

This isn’t just about convincing everyone overnight.

It’s about accumulation...of facts...of statements...of contradictions.

That’s how perception shifts...over time.

That’s why something like Kent’s letter...matters a hell of a lot more than it might look at first glance. It adds WEIGHT. It adds FRICTION to the existing narrative. It gives others something CONCRETE to point to.

You’re thinking about this the right way...less as a single turning point...more as a beginning SIGNAL that can build...if more voices follow.

#HOLDFAST indeed.

-Jack

Stephanie H's avatar

The fractures in the dam are getting bigger and undermining structural integrity.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Stephanie H...without question!

-Jack

Hexxen Wulf Morgenstern's avatar

It’s a beginning…. MTG was the first very visible one, Noems sacking, A couple more snowflakes…. Or maybe just one more (Cuba) and there will be major Republican dissension in the House and Senate, They are already rumbling, but it’s going to get louder. The cabinet is a group of scape goats waiting to be tagged. Hegseth could be on the scaffolding…. If he can’t finish Iran in 2 weeks to a month, Trump will not be happy. Not sure if he handle two theaters at the same time…. Iran and Cuba. Trump will want Cuba by May.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Hexxen...you’re seeing the same early-stage pattern I am...it’s not loud...YET...but it’s there.

The key shift is this, moving from isolated noise → early rumbling. A few visible breaks..a few pressure points...and suddenly it’s not just random anymore...it starts to feel directional.

You’re right about something important: once expectations get set...timelines...outcomes... “wins”...that creates its own pressure.

If those expectations aren’t met quickly...the search for accountability tends to follow...and it rarely lands gently.

Your point about scapegoating...is ESPECIALLY sharp.

When things get complicated...or stall out...the instinct isn’t to reassess the decision...it’s to reassign blame. That’s when you start watching personnel moves VERY closely.

And...on the “two theaters” point...you’re getting at the core issue: BANDWIDTH. Political... military...and narrative bandwidth all at once. That’s...where strain tends to show up fastest.

You’re reading this the right way...not as a single turning point...but as something that could build...IF more pieces start to move at the same time.

-Jack

Kristine Antonivich's avatar

I believe it is a sign that cracks are forming. Once something cracks it weakens the whole structure. It is hard to reconcile your narrative of the war when your chief intelligence officer is disputing it. Couple that with the economic impacts this whole thing could blow apart for this regime. Also the Epstein files!! #Holdfast

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Kristine Antonivich...you’re seeing it clearly, my friend. That’s EXACTLY how this works.

It’s not the size of the first crack. It’s the fact...that it exists AT ALL.

Once a core piece of the narrative gets challenged...from the INSIDE...especially by someone in an intelligence role...it weakens the structure in a way that’s hard to fully repair.

You can message over it...attack the person...try to move on…but...the contradiction doesn’t disappear.

I also like how you've layered in the other pressures. These things don’t operate in isolation:

Narrative strain

Economic consequences

Unresolved...high-interest issues still hanging out there.

That’s how pressure builds...not from ONE event...but from multiple stress points...hitting all at once.

You’re thinking about it the right way: not as collapse...but as accumulating strain on the system.

#Holdfast

-Jack

Deb's avatar

I do not see this as a one-off. Guy is too politically aligned for that. I hope this breaks things wide open.

Of course, my brain goes to ‘where does this take us and how does it all go down’ scenarios. And I’m learning that sometimes you just have to observe, discern and let it all play out while maintaining a calm, focused state. Easier said than done some days.

I truly hope this is the beginning of the end. An insider breaking out is a huge deal. Congress, are you listening??

Thanks, Jack!