As Todd alluded to, I don’t trust a thing the Trump regime says. I’ll watch the systems and yes… I’d believe Iran over Washington if those were the only two choices… they aren’t the only things to pay attention to though.
It’s disturbing that we’d believe Iran over our own government but it’s where we are.
File the date: May 7, 2026. The U.S. Navy is escorting commercial vessels through a strait the White House says is open.
Note which things coexist in the same week: a declared ceasefire and active exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces near Hormuz. Note which institutions are still pricing for instability — the insurers, the shipping firms, the commodity desks. Note which ones have accepted the official narrative. There are not many.
Jack is correct that this is how modern pressure campaigns work. Iran does not need to close the Strait. It needs to keep the question open. The Ottoman Empire spent decades doing precisely that in the Bosphorus — not blocking passage but controlling the terms of it. The leverage was in the uncertainty, not the closure.
Jack is correct that the public is several layers behind. The systems managing actual risk learned this lesson earlier. History records that gap, too — the distance between what governments announced and what institutions already knew. That distance is measurable. It shows up later in the documents.
The reader can decide what it means that the ships are still rerouting.
When it comes to this war, I don’t believe anything that comes out of this administration. I look to what Iran says if I want to get something close to factual accuracy.
I’ve seen it mentioned that if everything does go pear-shaped for Iran, they could send out a fishing boat to drag its anchor on the sea floor and tear up an undersea internet cable. The cable provides several Middle East countries with 80% of their internet service. The cascade effects from that simple act would have global consequences.
Iran does not just hold the cards, they have all the aces.
Iran is basically holding the world hostage. Kudos to those who went ahead and made investments in alternative energy, bought cars that are either electric or hybrid and have done their best to minimize dependence on fossil fuels (individuals and countries). Problem is the ramifications will be far more widespread. What will ppl do and how will they respond if we end up with food shortages?
T and his approach reminds of Charlie Sheen when he was in the throes of his addiction & mental health crisis and he responded to the world with “winning!” when he was doing any thing but. T has met his match with the Iranians and put the US in a situation where it appears we hold very few, if any, cards. What price will we pay? what concessions will Iran extract? where does this leave the world? what role will China and/or Russia play in all of this? will Iran basically say screw you all and continue the instability? if yes, then what?
I have to say I have a newfound respect for my body and how it freaked out when the Iran bombing begin on 2/28. It knew. I sure wish it would tell me how we get out of this mess…..
Thanks, Jack! I look forward the deep dive later tonight.
It is clear to me that Iran's biggest weapon is US public opinion. As prices continue to rise, the public outrage will continue. Once that outrage reaches a breaking point, the call for Trump's impeachment will escalate to the point where even congress will be able to ignore it. This is not a war, this is a diversion. A war takes significant planning and coordination while a diversion basks in uncertainty, which the media loves.
Great analysis focused on watching behavior of intertwined systems. This type of focus should supersede watching TV rhetoric which unfortunately has been used as a propaganda mechanism and untrustworthy. One focus area I’m sensing is the increased use of these systems’ instability to modify wealth acquisition and where the concentration of wealth is occurring.
It's all unstable because leadership is unstable. The World, not just Iran... cannot trust or determine what Trump will do from one day to the next. They do not trust him They are not wrong. The responsibility for this entire situation at this moment in time rests entirely on him. This situation is separate and unrelated to any nation's past actions IMO.
One thing that's happened is that MBS, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is not allowing the US to have access to any of their land or airspace. The reporting indicates that some of the leaders of countries in the Middle East are angry that the US hasn't kept their word and "finished" Iran off by now.
Fwiw, I'm wondering if this rift between the Saudis and the US has to do with the UAE's announcement to leave OPEC. The fear of UAE's departure means that there's even less stability in the region, which could leave all the Middle East nations subject to the same treatment that the Palestinians have received from Bibi and Israel.
Given the trustworthiness of this regime, nope, the Strait is not open. Iran isn't done mopping the Strait of Hormuz with Trump's rear. They declared they are the Persian Gulf Port Authority (someone must have been to New York). This includes, of course, all of Iran + strait + Hormuz + Lebanon + Gaza. This could get very interesting.
Jack, are you okay? I’m writing here because this is the last date of your email I received, but now it’s after midnight, so it’s Saturday morning. I hope you are fine. Did I miss something?
As Todd alluded to, I don’t trust a thing the Trump regime says. I’ll watch the systems and yes… I’d believe Iran over Washington if those were the only two choices… they aren’t the only things to pay attention to though.
It’s disturbing that we’d believe Iran over our own government but it’s where we are.
I look forward to the paid piece later tonight.
Thanks, Jack!
#Holdfast
~Susan
Same here Susan...on all points.
File the date: May 7, 2026. The U.S. Navy is escorting commercial vessels through a strait the White House says is open.
Note which things coexist in the same week: a declared ceasefire and active exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces near Hormuz. Note which institutions are still pricing for instability — the insurers, the shipping firms, the commodity desks. Note which ones have accepted the official narrative. There are not many.
Jack is correct that this is how modern pressure campaigns work. Iran does not need to close the Strait. It needs to keep the question open. The Ottoman Empire spent decades doing precisely that in the Bosphorus — not blocking passage but controlling the terms of it. The leverage was in the uncertainty, not the closure.
Jack is correct that the public is several layers behind. The systems managing actual risk learned this lesson earlier. History records that gap, too — the distance between what governments announced and what institutions already knew. That distance is measurable. It shows up later in the documents.
The reader can decide what it means that the ships are still rerouting.
#HOLDFAST
When it comes to this war, I don’t believe anything that comes out of this administration. I look to what Iran says if I want to get something close to factual accuracy.
I’ve seen it mentioned that if everything does go pear-shaped for Iran, they could send out a fishing boat to drag its anchor on the sea floor and tear up an undersea internet cable. The cable provides several Middle East countries with 80% of their internet service. The cascade effects from that simple act would have global consequences.
Iran does not just hold the cards, they have all the aces.
And they didn't start this round of hooey. That is inescapable. Trump really screwed up.
This is how this regime operates, Everything is being Managed Under Threat. Another eye opening article, Jack, Spot On, and will reStack ASAP 💯👍
Iran is basically holding the world hostage. Kudos to those who went ahead and made investments in alternative energy, bought cars that are either electric or hybrid and have done their best to minimize dependence on fossil fuels (individuals and countries). Problem is the ramifications will be far more widespread. What will ppl do and how will they respond if we end up with food shortages?
T and his approach reminds of Charlie Sheen when he was in the throes of his addiction & mental health crisis and he responded to the world with “winning!” when he was doing any thing but. T has met his match with the Iranians and put the US in a situation where it appears we hold very few, if any, cards. What price will we pay? what concessions will Iran extract? where does this leave the world? what role will China and/or Russia play in all of this? will Iran basically say screw you all and continue the instability? if yes, then what?
I have to say I have a newfound respect for my body and how it freaked out when the Iran bombing begin on 2/28. It knew. I sure wish it would tell me how we get out of this mess…..
Thanks, Jack! I look forward the deep dive later tonight.
I gotta get some sleep, but will be reading you first thing with my coffee in the morning.
#Holdfast
It is clear to me that Iran's biggest weapon is US public opinion. As prices continue to rise, the public outrage will continue. Once that outrage reaches a breaking point, the call for Trump's impeachment will escalate to the point where even congress will be able to ignore it. This is not a war, this is a diversion. A war takes significant planning and coordination while a diversion basks in uncertainty, which the media loves.
Great analysis focused on watching behavior of intertwined systems. This type of focus should supersede watching TV rhetoric which unfortunately has been used as a propaganda mechanism and untrustworthy. One focus area I’m sensing is the increased use of these systems’ instability to modify wealth acquisition and where the concentration of wealth is occurring.
It's all unstable because leadership is unstable. The World, not just Iran... cannot trust or determine what Trump will do from one day to the next. They do not trust him They are not wrong. The responsibility for this entire situation at this moment in time rests entirely on him. This situation is separate and unrelated to any nation's past actions IMO.
One thing that's happened is that MBS, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is not allowing the US to have access to any of their land or airspace. The reporting indicates that some of the leaders of countries in the Middle East are angry that the US hasn't kept their word and "finished" Iran off by now.
Fwiw, I'm wondering if this rift between the Saudis and the US has to do with the UAE's announcement to leave OPEC. The fear of UAE's departure means that there's even less stability in the region, which could leave all the Middle East nations subject to the same treatment that the Palestinians have received from Bibi and Israel.
Given the trustworthiness of this regime, nope, the Strait is not open. Iran isn't done mopping the Strait of Hormuz with Trump's rear. They declared they are the Persian Gulf Port Authority (someone must have been to New York). This includes, of course, all of Iran + strait + Hormuz + Lebanon + Gaza. This could get very interesting.
Jack, are you okay? I’m writing here because this is the last date of your email I received, but now it’s after midnight, so it’s Saturday morning. I hope you are fine. Did I miss something?
#HOLDFAST!