When you see 150+ aircraft move, including F-22s and F-35s, along with a carrier group like the USS Gerald R. Ford, that’s not just talk — that’s real positioning.
It doesn’t mean a strike is coming. But it does mean the U.S. wants the option ready.
Thanks for the detailed breakdown, Jack. Really appreciate you walking through the actual movements and not just the rhetoric. The focus on positioning over headlines is especially helpful right now.
That’s exactly the discipline we need right now: watch the positioning...not the noise. Rhetoric is cheap. Movement costs something. When you track what costs something...you see the real signal.
They could care less about loss of US military men or the hideous cost of this action. Human lives mean nothing to this regime. Thanks Jack for the outline of what to look for. I feel for every parent worrying about their child/children. I am from the Viet NAm era and remember it well. My oldest was in the marines in the late 80-early 90. The period of black hawk down.He was involved in something that he was never allowed to talk about and he really was not the same person after that time in service.
Setting the stage you describe certainly didn't come from trump or Hegseth. So, at least someone was left that will not totally hang our troops out to dry. And, hopefully the actual war plans won't be shared on truth social or Signal. And I also hope that there is justified reason.
You are undoubtedly right that it leans toward imminent attack, or just saber rattling, especially in light of all the losses trump has sustained in the last few weeks.
Sue...I get the déjà vu feeling. When posture shifts this visibly...it can damn sure feel like history looping back with more velocity.
You’re also right about one important thing...large-scale military positioning doesn’t originate from one personality.
The mechanics...aircraft dispersal...carrier movements... ISR layering...force-protection adjustments...are planned and executed by professionals whose job is to reduce risk to service members.
That architecture reflects institutional process...not impulse.
At the same time, posture alone doesn’t tell us intent. The same setup can support a strike...or...strengthen bargaining leverage. That’s why I’m watching duration and follow-through...more than tone.
Your last point is key: justification matters. If force is used...it has to be grounded in strategic necessity...not optics. That’s where scrutiny belongs.
For now, we stay analytical. Watch the positioning. Watch whether it tightens or stabilizes. THAT...will tell us far more than speculation ever will!
I’m curious… how vulnerable in other areas of the world does all the build up leave us? Or is that part of the calculus of the build up ie: things will likely happen soon or quickly settle?
Deb, thank you. And...great question...and yes, big buildups have opportunity costs.
When carriers, stealth fighters...and ISR concentrate in one theater...flexibility elsewhere can thin.
That said, planners try to preserve deterrence in layers...and a visible surge can actually deter opportunism because it signals readiness and will. The key variable is duration... short...decisive posture shifts...can stabilize. Long, open-ended ones...create real strain.
I want to know the justification other than to distract, or demonstrate how unconstrained he is. Iran is obviously an easy boogeyman for the US and Israel populace.
More jets have flown from UK to be stationed in Israel. The posturing is strong. It may depend on the direction/acceptance of the SOTU speech. If temper tantrum Donnie feels slighted, he will want to be strong. He has all the tools in the theatre at the ready and would be the answer he needs. Many countries state that will not support this and at least some military have stated we cannot sustain this action. That has never been an issue from the wannabe General Halftrack. He also cares nothing for the loss of life. So it will not bother him at all, to see death of our military. May cooler heads prevail.
well if he wants to own the news cycle the combo of Huckabee and Ramadan might work. I will be interested to see how Qatar and Jordan handle their populations on that one.
When you see 150+ aircraft move, including F-22s and F-35s, along with a carrier group like the USS Gerald R. Ford, that’s not just talk — that’s real positioning.
It doesn’t mean a strike is coming. But it does mean the U.S. wants the option ready.
And options like that aren’t cheap or casual.
Thanks for the detailed breakdown, Jack. Really appreciate you walking through the actual movements and not just the rhetoric. The focus on positioning over headlines is especially helpful right now.
#HOLDFAST
Jane, thank you...that means a lot.
That’s exactly the discipline we need right now: watch the positioning...not the noise. Rhetoric is cheap. Movement costs something. When you track what costs something...you see the real signal.
We stay steady. We stay clear-eyed.
#HOLDFAST
-Jack
Thank you corporate America.
Gary, I damn sure get the sentiment.
Defense contractors, energy markets, media cycles...they all intersect when tensions rise.
And...in addition to who profits...it’s whether policy decisions are being driven by strategic necessity or incentives that PREFER instability.
That’s a healthy lens to keep applied, Gary!
-Jack
They could care less about loss of US military men or the hideous cost of this action. Human lives mean nothing to this regime. Thanks Jack for the outline of what to look for. I feel for every parent worrying about their child/children. I am from the Viet NAm era and remember it well. My oldest was in the marines in the late 80-early 90. The period of black hawk down.He was involved in something that he was never allowed to talk about and he really was not the same person after that time in service.
#HOLDFAST
Teri
Déjà vu, except this time on steroids.
Setting the stage you describe certainly didn't come from trump or Hegseth. So, at least someone was left that will not totally hang our troops out to dry. And, hopefully the actual war plans won't be shared on truth social or Signal. And I also hope that there is justified reason.
You are undoubtedly right that it leans toward imminent attack, or just saber rattling, especially in light of all the losses trump has sustained in the last few weeks.
Sue
Sue...I get the déjà vu feeling. When posture shifts this visibly...it can damn sure feel like history looping back with more velocity.
You’re also right about one important thing...large-scale military positioning doesn’t originate from one personality.
The mechanics...aircraft dispersal...carrier movements... ISR layering...force-protection adjustments...are planned and executed by professionals whose job is to reduce risk to service members.
That architecture reflects institutional process...not impulse.
At the same time, posture alone doesn’t tell us intent. The same setup can support a strike...or...strengthen bargaining leverage. That’s why I’m watching duration and follow-through...more than tone.
Your last point is key: justification matters. If force is used...it has to be grounded in strategic necessity...not optics. That’s where scrutiny belongs.
For now, we stay analytical. Watch the positioning. Watch whether it tightens or stabilizes. THAT...will tell us far more than speculation ever will!
-Jack
Justified reason? For who? The fascists who govern israel? Or for our country?
Thanks, Jack. Good stuff.
I’m curious… how vulnerable in other areas of the world does all the build up leave us? Or is that part of the calculus of the build up ie: things will likely happen soon or quickly settle?
Love the analysis!
Deb, thank you. And...great question...and yes, big buildups have opportunity costs.
When carriers, stealth fighters...and ISR concentrate in one theater...flexibility elsewhere can thin.
That said, planners try to preserve deterrence in layers...and a visible surge can actually deter opportunism because it signals readiness and will. The key variable is duration... short...decisive posture shifts...can stabilize. Long, open-ended ones...create real strain.
Thanks again, Deb!
-Jack
Thanks, Jack. I’m going to be blunt: does 47 have the mental capacity and focus to carry out the State Of The Union AND this likely attack?
I want to know the justification other than to distract, or demonstrate how unconstrained he is. Iran is obviously an easy boogeyman for the US and Israel populace.
More jets have flown from UK to be stationed in Israel. The posturing is strong. It may depend on the direction/acceptance of the SOTU speech. If temper tantrum Donnie feels slighted, he will want to be strong. He has all the tools in the theatre at the ready and would be the answer he needs. Many countries state that will not support this and at least some military have stated we cannot sustain this action. That has never been an issue from the wannabe General Halftrack. He also cares nothing for the loss of life. So it will not bother him at all, to see death of our military. May cooler heads prevail.
Thanks, Jack!
#HoldFast
#ProtestSOTU
well if he wants to own the news cycle the combo of Huckabee and Ramadan might work. I will be interested to see how Qatar and Jordan handle their populations on that one.