Excellent and compelling piece. Unsettling, yes. Timely and balanced, definitely yes. Paranoid ideas are among the most corrosive to the self and to society. The loss of trust takes only a short time; regaining that trust takes far longer. Part of the paranoid mindset is to attribute enormous competence to the opposition, but most things are more cockup than conspiracy, and your balanced take of this is if anything the big take-home message of your piece - at least as I read it. Also, as you imply, you can’t be too well informed. Comparing sources, even (especially) when you strongly agree or strongly disagree with one opinion. Echo chambers are far easier to create than to avoid. This piece goes a long way to avoiding the echo chamber. Harder and unglamorously painstaking; but fundamentally necessary. Thank you for this
You nailed it Mike Isaac; most things ARE more cockup than conspiracy...and...paranoia's quiet trick is convincing us the other side...is far more competent than it really is. That's EXACTLY the take-home I hoped readers would find.
And you're right about SOURCES. Reading the people I disagree with is the unglamorous part of this job...but it's the part that KEEPS me honest. It's why I included the CRITICS of Kadlec's paper...right alongside it.
Readers like you, Mike... who think this carefully...are why I keep doing it the SLOW way.
Thank you for reading...and...for taking the time to write.
I don't think we have to worry too much about new, devastating bioweapons yet, for the simple reason that biology is HARD. It would be easier to build an atomic bomb in your garage than to design a novel virus right now, even with the help of AI. More problematic is the possible release of something nasty that already exists, like smallpox.
Bioweapons can also infect your own side just as easily as your enemies, which is another thing that as kept sane people from developing them. (Of course, not everyone is sane...)
If COVID was a bioweapon, it was the worst one ever designed: it had a fairly low mortality rate of about 1%, it killed the wrong people (soldiers tend to be young and healthy, not the nonworking elderly or the nonworking really young), and while Long COVID is real, most people who get COVID don't end up suffering from it. I would expect a bioweapon to be much, much nastier than COVID-19. While Annie Jacobsen's memory issues could be due to Long COVID, I suspect they are mostly normal age-related changes.
But weapons that induce paranoia and promote conspiracy-mongering we have already seen in wide use, in the form of social media + algorithms. We know a considerable percentage of comments on social media, and quite a bit of the audio video content on sites like TikTok, are created by the Russian government as deliberate disinformation campaigns; I suspect China is doing the same thing. Who needs to go to all the trouble of creating and then dispensing real viruses when Facebook and YouTube brainworms can do the job just as well, and far more safely (from the POV of the Russian and Chinese governments, which can control what their own citizens are allowed to see online)?
Your advice for how to avoid falling into the paranoia trap is excellent. Verify before you trust, but then trust! Driving divisions between different groups in our society so we fight each other is how our enemies win.
You rocked it: why go to the trouble of engineering a virus when an algorithm...can spread suspicion for FREE...and with no risk of blowback on your own population?
I think you're right that biology is HARD...and...that blowback has kept most SANE actors away from bioweapons. Your point about COVID being a poor fit as a designed weapon is one the skeptics of Kadlec's paper make too. I tried to leave room for that...since the hard evidence just isn't there.
The scale of foreign influence campaigns online is still being measured...BUT...there's no question they're REAL... and that they target exactly what you describe: The. Seems. Between. Us.
"Verify before you trust, but then trust." That line deserves its OWN index card.
Thank you for reading, and for such a detailed note!
When i was a government contractor, I had to take a CBRN course every year. That knowledge was why I dismissed the idea that Covid was a bioweapon. It didn't fit the requirements.
I'm a retired technical writer and it was part of my job to know how to research topics. As Jack mentioned, serious research and critical thinking is hard work. Watching a few random YouTube videos doesn't cut it.
Indeed. My graduate degrees and 30+ years entrenched in human behavior...aren't something people can watch a weekend of podcasts to "catch up" to what that investment required. Hard topics are hard WORK. Period.
A good friend of mine was a technical writer. Her attention to detail...SUPERB. Thanks for sharing that with all of us.
Also, thanks for bringing up the CBRN course. (For those who might not know that acronym, it refers to training in how to recognize, protect against, and respond to Chemical...Biological...Radiological...and Nuclear threats.)
As a Navy Corpsman, I went through a CBRN course. I agree; there are other, far more insidious pathogens out there, many of them able to spread with equal ease...that fit the profile SO much more closely.
I have read 2 of her books, they were well written and knowledgeable. Also the scariest books I have ever read. I will go watch the podcast. In my opinion, she is a brave woman. Many people in all governments probably wish she would just go away, I’m thankful she’s still writing.
The greatest threat our species faces long term, IMHO, isn't nuclear weapons or bioweapons or AI or even global warming. it's psychopathy. If we don't figure out how to keep psychopaths out of positions of power we are doomed as a species, because psychopaths care about nothing but their own desires and act accordingly.
There's so much going on these days and so many books I want to read. Unfortunately, even though I read several hours a day I just can't keep up. There's so much I feel that I need to know.
Almost every time I read your post's I am more concerned that our education system is failing to educate. Original source reading used to be the standard approach to researching anything. Now they've become the last thing anyone references in a discussion, behind most everything on the internet or what they heard on talk radio or saw in a piece of toast.
Fascinating piece. Orwell would have loved it. Thanks for the references I will definitely read the report. If one were to theorize how useful such a weapon would be they might look at our current situation. Leaders with poor analytical and strategic planning abilities resulting in bad decisions, increasing chaos and plummeting citizen trust and approval. But if you think about it creating mass paranoia and distrust would not be limited to just the country attacked. The citizens would be paranoid about other countries as well as their own and likely strike out. The perpetrator could be setting itself up as a target. The more you think about it the apocalyptic it becomes.
My younger brother and I have both had white matter disease diagnosed in our lifetimes. We, along with two sisters and our parents had spent a long summer in Moab Utah during the time of radiation testing in the early 1950s. This can and I think does cause cognitive "slowing" in some people, for sure in me. And, this didn't need China propaganda to infect or infest Americans. Our government did just fine on their own. Hence Downwinders. There has never been direct causation for my brother and I and neither of us developed cancer, but when a doctor in my case said that the spots of disease were innumerable -- too many to count, I believed him. And then there is Tuskegee.
I don't question that China has a plethora of diabolical plans aimed at us, as does Putin.
It would scare the pants off of us all if we ever got a gander at America's possible scenarios.
Excellent and compelling piece. Unsettling, yes. Timely and balanced, definitely yes. Paranoid ideas are among the most corrosive to the self and to society. The loss of trust takes only a short time; regaining that trust takes far longer. Part of the paranoid mindset is to attribute enormous competence to the opposition, but most things are more cockup than conspiracy, and your balanced take of this is if anything the big take-home message of your piece - at least as I read it. Also, as you imply, you can’t be too well informed. Comparing sources, even (especially) when you strongly agree or strongly disagree with one opinion. Echo chambers are far easier to create than to avoid. This piece goes a long way to avoiding the echo chamber. Harder and unglamorously painstaking; but fundamentally necessary. Thank you for this
Mike... thank you; this means a lot.
You nailed it Mike Isaac; most things ARE more cockup than conspiracy...and...paranoia's quiet trick is convincing us the other side...is far more competent than it really is. That's EXACTLY the take-home I hoped readers would find.
And you're right about SOURCES. Reading the people I disagree with is the unglamorous part of this job...but it's the part that KEEPS me honest. It's why I included the CRITICS of Kadlec's paper...right alongside it.
Readers like you, Mike... who think this carefully...are why I keep doing it the SLOW way.
Thank you for reading...and...for taking the time to write.
-Jack
Trust, then verify… I’ve used this for years, call me a sceptic.
Great piece Jack.
William, thank you.
Yep...trust, then verify...is about as solid as it gets!
Thanks for being here, William Gardner.
-Jack
I don't think we have to worry too much about new, devastating bioweapons yet, for the simple reason that biology is HARD. It would be easier to build an atomic bomb in your garage than to design a novel virus right now, even with the help of AI. More problematic is the possible release of something nasty that already exists, like smallpox.
Bioweapons can also infect your own side just as easily as your enemies, which is another thing that as kept sane people from developing them. (Of course, not everyone is sane...)
If COVID was a bioweapon, it was the worst one ever designed: it had a fairly low mortality rate of about 1%, it killed the wrong people (soldiers tend to be young and healthy, not the nonworking elderly or the nonworking really young), and while Long COVID is real, most people who get COVID don't end up suffering from it. I would expect a bioweapon to be much, much nastier than COVID-19. While Annie Jacobsen's memory issues could be due to Long COVID, I suspect they are mostly normal age-related changes.
But weapons that induce paranoia and promote conspiracy-mongering we have already seen in wide use, in the form of social media + algorithms. We know a considerable percentage of comments on social media, and quite a bit of the audio video content on sites like TikTok, are created by the Russian government as deliberate disinformation campaigns; I suspect China is doing the same thing. Who needs to go to all the trouble of creating and then dispensing real viruses when Facebook and YouTube brainworms can do the job just as well, and far more safely (from the POV of the Russian and Chinese governments, which can control what their own citizens are allowed to see online)?
Your advice for how to avoid falling into the paranoia trap is excellent. Verify before you trust, but then trust! Driving divisions between different groups in our society so we fight each other is how our enemies win.
dlnevins...thank you for this.
You rocked it: why go to the trouble of engineering a virus when an algorithm...can spread suspicion for FREE...and with no risk of blowback on your own population?
I think you're right that biology is HARD...and...that blowback has kept most SANE actors away from bioweapons. Your point about COVID being a poor fit as a designed weapon is one the skeptics of Kadlec's paper make too. I tried to leave room for that...since the hard evidence just isn't there.
The scale of foreign influence campaigns online is still being measured...BUT...there's no question they're REAL... and that they target exactly what you describe: The. Seems. Between. Us.
"Verify before you trust, but then trust." That line deserves its OWN index card.
Thank you for reading, and for such a detailed note!
-Jack
When i was a government contractor, I had to take a CBRN course every year. That knowledge was why I dismissed the idea that Covid was a bioweapon. It didn't fit the requirements.
I'm a retired technical writer and it was part of my job to know how to research topics. As Jack mentioned, serious research and critical thinking is hard work. Watching a few random YouTube videos doesn't cut it.
I think everyone reading this thread might appreciate this wonderful essay on AI and its potential uses in designing a bioweapon by Derek Lowe: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/ai-help-biological-or-chemical-weapons
Thank God biology is HARD!!!
And yes, really learning about a topic is hard work. I didn't earn my degrees and my medical license by watching a few hours of amateur videos.
Indeed. My graduate degrees and 30+ years entrenched in human behavior...aren't something people can watch a weekend of podcasts to "catch up" to what that investment required. Hard topics are hard WORK. Period.
-Jack
Bingo.
A good friend of mine was a technical writer. Her attention to detail...SUPERB. Thanks for sharing that with all of us.
Also, thanks for bringing up the CBRN course. (For those who might not know that acronym, it refers to training in how to recognize, protect against, and respond to Chemical...Biological...Radiological...and Nuclear threats.)
As a Navy Corpsman, I went through a CBRN course. I agree; there are other, far more insidious pathogens out there, many of them able to spread with equal ease...that fit the profile SO much more closely.
-Jack
I have read 2 of her books, they were well written and knowledgeable. Also the scariest books I have ever read. I will go watch the podcast. In my opinion, she is a brave woman. Many people in all governments probably wish she would just go away, I’m thankful she’s still writing.
I hope our own government hasn't participated in this type of weapon development.
China and Russia don't care about their own people. They censor what citizens can learn, and use propaganda to mislead. It's really evil.
The human mind is what distinguishes us from other animals. Yet these psychopath tyrants are happy to mess with human minds.
They do it already with psychological warfare. Pretty sure I read Mike Flynn has used his training - against the American people. Qanon?!
Cambridge Analytica did it with micro-targeting of social media.
Algorithms are doing it to keep us scrolling like a mouse on a wheel.
Cult leaders have done it to the extreme of mass suicide.
I read that Wales passed a law making political lying illegal. Wow.
Not having your mind manipulated is a human right.
The greatest threat our species faces long term, IMHO, isn't nuclear weapons or bioweapons or AI or even global warming. it's psychopathy. If we don't figure out how to keep psychopaths out of positions of power we are doomed as a species, because psychopaths care about nothing but their own desires and act accordingly.
Jack, I've been reading your work for a few months to decide if I wanted to subscribe. This was the piece that made the decision.
Robot Bender...WELCOME.
First, I don't take your support lightly. It's literally what allows me to continue doing this. Thank you.
Second, I'm glad this piece resonated with you and led you to make the decision. I aim every day...to keep delivering.
-Jack
You're welcome! I'm glad to be here.
There's so much going on these days and so many books I want to read. Unfortunately, even though I read several hours a day I just can't keep up. There's so much I feel that I need to know.
Almost every time I read your post's I am more concerned that our education system is failing to educate. Original source reading used to be the standard approach to researching anything. Now they've become the last thing anyone references in a discussion, behind most everything on the internet or what they heard on talk radio or saw in a piece of toast.
Fascinating piece. Orwell would have loved it. Thanks for the references I will definitely read the report. If one were to theorize how useful such a weapon would be they might look at our current situation. Leaders with poor analytical and strategic planning abilities resulting in bad decisions, increasing chaos and plummeting citizen trust and approval. But if you think about it creating mass paranoia and distrust would not be limited to just the country attacked. The citizens would be paranoid about other countries as well as their own and likely strike out. The perpetrator could be setting itself up as a target. The more you think about it the apocalyptic it becomes.
Thank you for this piece. Ms. Jacobsen definitely has my ear.
My younger brother and I have both had white matter disease diagnosed in our lifetimes. We, along with two sisters and our parents had spent a long summer in Moab Utah during the time of radiation testing in the early 1950s. This can and I think does cause cognitive "slowing" in some people, for sure in me. And, this didn't need China propaganda to infect or infest Americans. Our government did just fine on their own. Hence Downwinders. There has never been direct causation for my brother and I and neither of us developed cancer, but when a doctor in my case said that the spots of disease were innumerable -- too many to count, I believed him. And then there is Tuskegee.
I don't question that China has a plethora of diabolical plans aimed at us, as does Putin.
It would scare the pants off of us all if we ever got a gander at America's possible scenarios.
#HoldFast Jack, the worst is yet to come. 😉
Sue