History shows that threats to invoke extraordinary powers are not idle gestures—they exploit fear, optics, and institutional compliance. Your “trigger map” mirrors past crises: escalation happens when leaders can frame a moment as urgent, isolate their target, and rely on bureaucratic green lights. Democracy survives only when these levers are illuminated and resisted.
I like your analogy here,I'm going to speculating that because he always says what he's going to do, before he actually does something, like for example,his Jan. 6th Insurrection on the Capitol,and suffered No Conciquences. He's Emboldened now,and with basically No Restraint's , in which case, I say "Yes" absolutely he will invoke the Insurrection Act, probably next fall Before any Election's happen. Never mind about the American People, trump will be Drunk with Power,as well as all the Maga Republicans. Hey, Jack? I thought you said this was a Short Read?!! 🤣 Good article, and will reStack ASAP 🙏
Karen, you’re not wrong about the pattern: he floats the move...tests the reaction...then escalates...and when consequences don’t show up...it trains boldness.
Where I’m careful is “next fall.”
Timing depends on whether he gets the sellable trigger...a violent flashpoint...a “local leaders failed” narrative...and the optics that let him say “no choice.”
Without that...he may keep it as a threat. With it, however...the odds spike FAST.
And...yes… “short read” in my world means “shorter than a book.” 😄 Appreciate the reStack.
Optics is everything. A dramatic visual gets media attention. Avoid the visual, the media pays no attention and the issue dies for lack of coverage. If extremist groups try to incite protests, the city leadership needs to identify it for what it is - an inside job to give Trump the excuse he needs. When the incitement is threatened, the citizenry needs to take a few deep breaths and stay calm. Police activity needs to stay overt. Nothing under the table. Surprise helps the extremists.
Steven...you hammered it. Optics drives permission. One dramatic clip...can hand them the very storyline they want.
I would caution readers not to confuse “no spectacle” with “no coverage.”
The move is visibility without volatility, calm crowds...clear marshals...constant filming... and instant documentation. Make the truth easy to see and hard to spin.
And...YES...if agitators show up...call it what it is...pretext manufacturing. The best defense is overt policing...transparent rules...and zero surprises. Surprise is oxygen for extremists.
What do you think Jack? Could the 11th Airborne be headed to Greenland not Minnesota? All those Senators were just in Denmark, will they stop him? Will this cause them to impeach and convict him? 🤔
I’m waiting for “ the optics” to start.Portland, during the BLM protests, had been 99% peaceful til the out of state provocateurs showed up, the Umbrella Man, smashing storefront windows, others setting vehicles alight etc. Given half a chance, I fear they will be showing up again, making for great headlines, and 🍊💩’s wet dreams coming to fruition.
Not to encourage "conspiracy thinking " but what's to stop this regime from staging an event that gets blamed on protesters? Maybe even more than one event?
And were that to happen in Minnesota- can the regime then postpone or cancel elections nationwide? States control elections. So what would red vs blue states do? He can't deploy troops everywhere. And if he tries to call off elections we definitely will see mass mobilization against the regime.
Has this scenario happened before in our history, where the Insurrection Act interfered with elections?
Malcom Nance said on YT that a year ago he predicted if the particular unit was put on notice, it meant DJT would be invading Greenland. This is the same unit mentioned by Nance — they are paratroopers, which means they can parachute into that country. They are also a “Winter or cold weather” unit, which means they are acclimated for either Minnesota or Greenland. If they are still “on notice” it is likely the target is Greenland and he telegraphed this action in his letter to the President of Norway yesterday.
I am wondering if it could be more simple. As we get closer to the respective primaries (MN is August, CA is June, OR is May), the likelihood of presidential abuse of authority over the military increases. The world soccer cup is mid-June thru mid-July, this country’s 250th is early July, and, for optics, they may factor in.
Thank you for the details, it provided a good understanding of the rhetoric and processes.
Excellent read with exceptional key points!
History shows that threats to invoke extraordinary powers are not idle gestures—they exploit fear, optics, and institutional compliance. Your “trigger map” mirrors past crises: escalation happens when leaders can frame a moment as urgent, isolate their target, and rely on bureaucratic green lights. Democracy survives only when these levers are illuminated and resisted.
I like your analogy here,I'm going to speculating that because he always says what he's going to do, before he actually does something, like for example,his Jan. 6th Insurrection on the Capitol,and suffered No Conciquences. He's Emboldened now,and with basically No Restraint's , in which case, I say "Yes" absolutely he will invoke the Insurrection Act, probably next fall Before any Election's happen. Never mind about the American People, trump will be Drunk with Power,as well as all the Maga Republicans. Hey, Jack? I thought you said this was a Short Read?!! 🤣 Good article, and will reStack ASAP 🙏
Karen, you’re not wrong about the pattern: he floats the move...tests the reaction...then escalates...and when consequences don’t show up...it trains boldness.
Where I’m careful is “next fall.”
Timing depends on whether he gets the sellable trigger...a violent flashpoint...a “local leaders failed” narrative...and the optics that let him say “no choice.”
Without that...he may keep it as a threat. With it, however...the odds spike FAST.
And...yes… “short read” in my world means “shorter than a book.” 😄 Appreciate the reStack.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Optics is everything. A dramatic visual gets media attention. Avoid the visual, the media pays no attention and the issue dies for lack of coverage. If extremist groups try to incite protests, the city leadership needs to identify it for what it is - an inside job to give Trump the excuse he needs. When the incitement is threatened, the citizenry needs to take a few deep breaths and stay calm. Police activity needs to stay overt. Nothing under the table. Surprise helps the extremists.
Steven...you hammered it. Optics drives permission. One dramatic clip...can hand them the very storyline they want.
I would caution readers not to confuse “no spectacle” with “no coverage.”
The move is visibility without volatility, calm crowds...clear marshals...constant filming... and instant documentation. Make the truth easy to see and hard to spin.
And...YES...if agitators show up...call it what it is...pretext manufacturing. The best defense is overt policing...transparent rules...and zero surprises. Surprise is oxygen for extremists.
-Jack
https://substack.com/@malcolmnance/note/c-201969018?r=e8o6t&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
What do you think Jack? Could the 11th Airborne be headed to Greenland not Minnesota? All those Senators were just in Denmark, will they stop him? Will this cause them to impeach and convict him? 🤔
What role do the Black Panthers play? Are they for real, or are they staged by the right to go rogue?
I’m waiting for “ the optics” to start.Portland, during the BLM protests, had been 99% peaceful til the out of state provocateurs showed up, the Umbrella Man, smashing storefront windows, others setting vehicles alight etc. Given half a chance, I fear they will be showing up again, making for great headlines, and 🍊💩’s wet dreams coming to fruition.
Not to encourage "conspiracy thinking " but what's to stop this regime from staging an event that gets blamed on protesters? Maybe even more than one event?
And were that to happen in Minnesota- can the regime then postpone or cancel elections nationwide? States control elections. So what would red vs blue states do? He can't deploy troops everywhere. And if he tries to call off elections we definitely will see mass mobilization against the regime.
Has this scenario happened before in our history, where the Insurrection Act interfered with elections?
🤣👈💯👍
Malcom Nance said on YT that a year ago he predicted if the particular unit was put on notice, it meant DJT would be invading Greenland. This is the same unit mentioned by Nance — they are paratroopers, which means they can parachute into that country. They are also a “Winter or cold weather” unit, which means they are acclimated for either Minnesota or Greenland. If they are still “on notice” it is likely the target is Greenland and he telegraphed this action in his letter to the President of Norway yesterday.
He's itching to move onto Greenland.
Jack, you wrote (and I am paraphrasing):
Probability call (with extreme uncertainty):
Next 2 - 6 weeks: odds 35-40%
If violent incident occurs: 60-80%
I am wondering if it could be more simple. As we get closer to the respective primaries (MN is August, CA is June, OR is May), the likelihood of presidential abuse of authority over the military increases. The world soccer cup is mid-June thru mid-July, this country’s 250th is early July, and, for optics, they may factor in.
Thank you for the details, it provided a good understanding of the rhetoric and processes.