This is making me feel sick to my stomach. I find it impossible to understand why so many republicans are willing to forsake our 250 year old democracy. And then to see Republican senators who have lost their primaries FINALLY vote with the Democrats to stop the madness? I hope it’s not too little too late. That just makes me insane. They KNOW what’s right and yet continue to vote along party lines just to keep their jobs. That is so utterly cowardly and disgusting. I couldn’t understand why they allowed his 2016 candidacy in the first place. And here we are. 🤬
Chrissy...thank you for writing this...and I want you to know that the sick feeling you're describing...is NOT weakness.
It's a sign that your moral compass is STILL working...when a lot of people's have gone quiet.
You've actually put your finger on the thing that matters most. The cruelest part isn't the senators who genuinely believe in this. It's the ones who DON'T....the ones who know EXACTLY what's right...and vote against it anyway.
And the fact that some of them only find their spine...AFTER they've already lost a primary tells you everything: it was never about conviction.
It was about the job. Once the job is gone...the truth becomes affordable.
The fear of the unknown causes overreaction. Keeping yourself in check without fear and over reactivity is a tough and necessary challenge. This administration is not smart enough to knowingly cause an ongoing historic disaster as the one we as a geopolitical community are experiencing. Who is actually in charge? Do we really want to know? I treasure my life. Taking a stand takes grit. It takes courage to withstand judgement that is derived from misconceptions and miscommunications.
I would certainly like to see our children overcome our obvious weaknesses and become the stronger quiet voice that overcomes these manmade creations of fear. Thank you Jack.
Alexa...this is one of the most clear-eyed things anyone has written to me...and...I want you to notice how far you've traveled in just a few messages.
You started out feeling sick to your stomach. You're ending HERE....naming your own fear... keeping it in check...and still resolved to stand.
That's not a small thing. That's exactly the muscle that gets people through hard stretches of history.
What you said about fear of the unknown driving overreaction...that's the whole game... really.
The pull toward catastrophizing...and the pull toward surrender...are the SAME PULL wearing two different coats.
Both end with a person sitting down. Staying UPRIGHT in the uncertain middle...WITHOUT flinching and without going numb...is the actual discipline. You've found it.
And...that line about our children becoming the stronger quiet voice... I'll be thinking about that for a while.
It reframes the stakes correctly. We may not get to see the resolution of all this. The job isn't to win it single-handedly in our own lifetime...and...I don't think we will...it's to hand the next people a country...and a temperament...WORTH inheriting. Quiet...steady... unafraid.
You're already modeling the thing you hope they'll carry.
Thank you for being the kind of reader who makes this work feel less lonely. Steady as we go...I'll be right here.
This was so fun to read. You sort of walked each other through what was going on, like a call-and-response song. Through each message I quietly spoke the word “yes” to myself. Grateful for the parts that were all playing in community here.
Honestly, it works both ways: subscribers like YOU are a good part of what keeps me steady enough to write.
And I love the merch idea. #HoldFast started as a sign-off and it's turned into something people seem to actually want to carry around...which tells me it's hitting a nerve.
I'm sketching a few shirt and cap concepts now. Once the paid report is out I'll share the designs and figure out the simplest way to get them made.
AWESOME! Yes, I was reading your work when you first introduced the phrase and it stuck with me. Just be sure there is nothing in the color red in them. I refuse to wear red these days.
Perhaps I’m ironing out the wrinkles on the white flag too soon but I sometimes think the Nov 2026 elections are already fraught with tampering. I think these primaries are important to 47 and his cabal because they are picking the winners now. The top vote getters in November may not matter because it won’t be counted / reported accurately. Has even one candidate that 47 has endorsed declined the endorsement?
Mary...you said it yourself...you may be ironing the white flag too soon.
Hold onto that instinct. It's the honest part of you, and it's right.
Here's where I think you're genuinely onto something: the primaries DO matter enormously...and...for exactly the reason you name.
A contested general election can be lost. A primary where the field has been cleared by an endorsement...a threat...or a well-funded challenger...is decided before most voters are paying attention.
That's real...it's documented...and...it's happening in the open...no conspiracy required. Picking the nominees is how you shape the outcome...without EVER touching a ballot count.
This is about the only story I can follow closely, maybe it’s the significance, maybe perverse curiosity, maybe a love of horror stories, I don’t know. But if this DOJ won’t even turn over evidence in two murders to local authorities, as was said “who is guarding the guards”?
I have questioned those 2024 results all along, Nancy. One person who knew about the details of the computers explained it in a comment to the Robert Reich substack long ago, and I believe what he wrote.
Also, the claimed winner of the main office gave special thanks to his then main person, praising his work, especially with computers, and especially in Pennsylvania.
While there are people who put down any questioning of that particular election, I will never stop believing what I believe. Neither do I blame the fine person who is said to have lost. She is of fine character, and I trust her.
I miss the days when day to day politics were boring 😔 I'm hoping on the American People will stand up and Vote this November and in 2028. We simply can't afford Republicans anymore. Thanks again Jack, for your insight and will reStack ASAP 💯👍
Karen...that line...missing when politics was boring...I think a lot of people feel exactly that and haven't found the words for it.
There's no shame in it. Wanting the ordinary back isn't apathy; it's a sign you understand what's ACTUALLY at stake.
Boring politics...is what a healthy country gets to have. Wanting it back...is wanting the country to be WELL.
And you've landed in the right place: the hope isn't a wish...it's a plan.
Show up in November, show up in 2028...bring people with you.
That's not naive...turnout is the one variable on the board that no court ruling...no affidavit...and no amount of structural tilt can fully cancel out.
It's the part that's genuinely in your hands.
Thank you for the restack...that's how this work finds the next person who needs it...so it means a great deal. Rest when you need to...then back to it.
Jack, you hit the nail on the head…it’s all about institutional control! The other issues are triggers and “window dressing” to distract the voters from the very real danger of the moment we are facing! This is the real worry that keeps me awake at night! We are doing everything that we can to help the “Blue Wave” occur…donating to candidates across the country, small donations from coast to coast. I am also contacting our elected representatives urging them to stand up and fight back in any way possible! We’re on the street when necessary and I think that a General Strike has to be really organized and repeated until we drive the message home to corporate America, too…they are enabling this regime! Look forward to your next post…thanks!
There are enough of us if everyone votes. It will be challenging but it is doable. I was listening to Ken harbaugh and Fred well man who is running for congress and lives in Missouri. Fred said feedback he is getting is regular republicans are fed up and he feels that by being on the ground and meeting people where they are has shown him the people are ready for truth and honesty. He said the current congress person the is republican is on their 13 year and does not respond the people in her district or have any contact. I think if a deep red state like that can elect a dem that is campaigning in affordability, accountability, and honesty has a great chance to flip a seat in congress. I also think there are more to be flipped. We just have to keep reminding people what we are fighting for!
Teri..."There are enough of us if everyone votes"...that's the WHOLE thing in one sentence. Keep saying it. It's not a slogan...it's just arithmetic...and arithmetic is harder to argue with than hope.
You've got the Wellman details basically right (and...Fred is a good friend of mine. We did an event together last year) and they're worth getting precise because precision is persuasive.
The incumbent is Ann Wagner...and she's held that seat since 2013...so yes, your '13 years' is exactly right. Wellman is a 22-year Army veteran...West Point...multiple Iraq deployments...running on lowering costs...protecting Social Security and Medicare...and accountability. That's a strong profile for that district.
One thing I'd adjust, and it actually helps your case: Missouri's 2nd isn't really 'deep red.' It's suburban St. Louis...St. Charles, Franklin...parts of St. Louis and Jefferson counties... and the Democratic campaign arm has already put Wagner on its target list...precisely because suburban seats like hers,,,get competitive when the national mood sours on the party in power.
So...this isn't a long shot in hostile territory. It's a REACHABLE suburban seat where an incumbent has gotten comfortable...and STOPPED showing up.
That's a better story than 'miracle in a red state,'...and...it's the TRUE one.
The other thing to keep straight: Wellman is in a five-way Democratic primary on August 4...he isn't the nominee yet. Not a knock on him...just worth knowing so you're not surprised...and a reminder that the August primary is a REAL date on your calendar...not just November.
But...your core instinct is sound...and the Wellman-on-the-ground point is the most important thing you said.
An incumbent who's stopped holding town halls and stopped answering her district...has handed her challenger the one opening that matters: just showing up.
'Affordability...accountability...honesty' plus...actually being in the room beats an absentee incumbent...more often than people expect.
And...you're right that it's not one seat...the same suburban PATTERN repeats in districts across the country.
So...KEEP reminding people what we're fighting for. That's not naive optimism. It's the JOB.
I watched Ken and Fred on one of Ken’s podcasts and really liked what Fred was saying. I am hoping that because Jess Piper talks how the republicans never have competition they don’t bother to campaign in Missouri that hearing they are now getting competition that many seats will flip. Schools, hospitals and health plus enough to live on are very front and center this time. Here in Florida the Supreme Court has all republicans thanks to deathsantis. And the legislature is such that if some republicans don’t cross the aisle we lose what was on the ballot. But there is hope because the Hispanic and black communities are NOT happy. Especially the Cubans in Miami. So we just
Donna...good question...and an important one to get right...because the Fulton County story is a near-perfect illustration of the thing I keep trying to describe.
Here's what we actually know.
On January 28, FBI agents executed a search warrant at Fulton County's elections hub in Union City...and removed roughly 700 boxes of 2020 election materials...ballots...tabulator tapes...ballot images...and voter rolls.
The county sued to get them back.
A federal judge has so far let the DOJ keep them, but...and this part matters...the same judge openly called portions of the FBI's affidavit 'misleading' and noted it omitted innocent explanations for the irregularities investigators cited.
A bipartisan group of eight former U.S. attorneys filed a brief calling the warrant unconstitutional.
The NAACP and the ACLU...went to court specifically to stop the seized voter data from being used for ANYTHING beyond the stated investigation...things like voter-roll purging or immigration enforcement.
So what was the point of it?
I'd be honest with you and say:
I can't read minds...and anyone who claims certainty about motive is selling something...bullshit, most likely.
But...the PATTERN is readable.
This concerns the 2020 election...a contest audited...recounted...litigated...and settled years ago.
Fulton County itself still holds copies of everything seized...which the judge noted.
The county's own argument in court is that the criminal warrant was a 'pretext' to grab records the administration had already been trying to get through a civil lawsuit.
If that reading is right...the 'point' isn't really the 2020 ballots. It's three things at once: keeping the grievance about 2020 alive as a live issue heading into the midterms; getting hold of detailed Georgia voter data; and sending a message...to every county election office in the country...that the federal government will come through your doors.
That last one is the quiet part. You don't need to find fraud. You need every local elections official to feel watched. That's the 'selective fear' mechanism I wrote about... working exactly as designed.
But...notice the other half of the story...because it's the half that should give you more than a modicum of hope.
Fulton County sued. The NAACP sued. The ACLU sued. Eight former prosecutors...from both parties...put their names on a brief.
A judge...even while ruling against the county...said PLAINLY... on the record....that the government's affidavit was misleading. The system PUSHED BACK. Loudly...in public...on paper. That is what institutions resisting looks like..not cinematic, but REAL.
And...that's the right note to end on...because you said this newsletter and seeing solid folks holding fast gives you a modicum of hope.
Hold onto that modicum. A modicum is not nothing...it's the foothold.
Despair would have you believe the raid proves the game is over. The lawsuits...the briefs... the judge's own words prove it isn't.
The fight is live. People are in it. And...you're paying attention...which is its own form of being in it.
Jack, I have that sick feeling that Chrissy has too. Part of it might be this migraine… not most of it though.
I couldn’t actually read it because of the migraine that refuses to go away… and I couldn’t wait after seeing the headline… so I listened. Did you know that it will suddenly speak a sentence or phrase with a French accent? Weird! DEI is pronounced Day… had to stop it a few times and figure it out… but I understood it… far too well.
Now I sit here with a renewed sense of anger and frustration at some people who refused to vote in 2024.. in spite of everything I could say. They won’t vote this time either. I know that and it makes me furious. The only person who could convince them is not very convincing.. gotta keep the peace… and that makes me furious.
Anyway, I look forward to the paid piece and hope the migraine eases but I’ll read and read again later if necessary. I’m hoping for some solid WHAT TO DO RIGHT NOW advice.. because suddenly the midterms seem far too close and the evil side feels quite a few moves ahead of us.
Thank you, Jack. I look forward… I think… to the paid article. I’d have already dissolved into despair if I hadn’t found you a decade or so ago and knew right then that you were a gift. Honestly, I had no idea just how much… I do now.
Excedrin Migraine sometimes helps. I also take magnesium glycinate which helped Jack’s wife and at first it seemed to help but now, not so much. Maybe stress is making it worse. There are prescription meds but they aren’t anywhere close to being in my budget. I’ll take and appreciate any help you send. Thank you, Cherae.
If you remember the breathing exercises Jack shared with us, you can dim your lights, close your eyes and try to focus on your breathing. Also, a nice warm bath helps me, or the negative ions during a shower. Get as comfortable as possible and release your cares for awhile. You are safe, you are strong, you are loved.
I’ve had severe panic disorder for over 33 years. I definitely know the breathing techniques and use them. Some of Jack’s have been better than all the psychiatrists, psychologists and therapists I’ve seen over the years though. Plus, he’s shared some other things that help with anxiety. I have meds for the… I’m having a heart attack… panic attacks. I take a little daily to try to prevent them because they are so severe and they make my BP skyrocket which isn’t good, of course. I do truly appreciate the suggestions though. They’re a kindness that I don’t always get from even those close to me.
I understand how a panic/severe anxiety disorder can disrupt a person’s life. I’ve seen it up close and personal with a member of my family. I’m so sorry that you haven’t received the kind of support you needed.
I’m going to open my window for some cool air. Soft blanket, 3 sweet doggies, holding your hand.
Why are you framing this as a consequence of Democrats being wiped out electorally? What evidence do you have that this is a likely outcome? Isn't it far more likely that, at worse, the GOP tries to sabotage the election and/or challenge the results, neither scenario which would equate with Democrats being drubbed at the polls. The framing is unwarranted under current conditions and not likely to change as a result where MAGA becomes popular in the six months.
Frank...this is the best pushback I've gotten on the piece...and I'm not going to wave it away...you've caught something real, so let me answer straight.
You're right that I never established the premise. The article runs on 'if Democrats get crushed,' and then spends three thousand words on what follows...without ever making the case that a crushing is likely.
That's a structural weakness. A conditional is only as useful as the odds you assign the condition...and I left those odds blank. Fair hit.
You're also right on the base rates...and they cut against me.
The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. When a president is underwater in approval, the losses get steeper, not shallower.
So if anything, the boring historical expectation is that the party in power takes damage in November...the opposite of the scenario my article is built around. I didn't reckon with that, and I should have.
And...your alternative is sharper than my framing: the more probable bad outcome isn't Democrats being repudiated at the polls...it's a close result that gets sabotaged, contested, or muddied after the fact.
Those are very different threats. Mine assumes a genuine popular mandate hands the movement permission.
Yours assumes NO mandate arrives...so...the field gets tilted and the result gets fought instead. Yours is better supported by current conditions. I'll concede that cleanly.
So why did I write it the way I did? Honest answer, not a justification: the 'crushing defeat' scenario is the one readers are LEAST PREPARED FOR AND MOST PARALYZED BY...so it's the one I find most USEFUL to walk through. When I keep in mind...why I'm here...and what my goal is when it comes to my writing...it makes the perspective I take quite simple...and easy.
But 'useful to examine' is not the same as 'likely,' and I blurred those two things.
A worst-case stress test should be labeled as a stress test...a low-probability...high-consequence branch...not delivered in a tone that implies it's the base case.
The piece would have been more honest, and frankly more credible, if it had said so plainly up top and spent a paragraph on probabilities.
I'd put the realistic distribution closer to what you describe: most likely the in-party loses ground; the genuine danger concentrated in sabotage-and-contest scenarios, not in a mandate.
I'd rather have a subscriber who holds my arguments to account than one who just nods along. This sharpens the next piece. Thank you for it — and keep doing exactly this.
And...if I didn't end with this, it would be negligence of the worst kind: Everything about the elections is going to be far worse that most Americans care to think about. There is every reason to think that...and no good ones...for thinking otherwise.
Well, that's as honest a response I could have ever imagined. Here's framing I think is more likely: the GOP interference is demonstrable and in the open and the refusal to seat elected Democrats becomes more likely depending on how successfully the interference phase is executed. The former depends on how effective the redistricting efforts are executed and how many goons Chump can get to do his bidding whether it comes from DHS/ICE, the National Guard, the armed forces and/or the recipients of his $1.8M cop beater slush fund for seditionists. What I think we need to prepare for is the most significant level of state sponsored violence directed at the citizenry since Reconstruction and how we respond to it. If we can become Minneapolis writ large, we save the Republic. If not, we become Vichy, France. In either case, violence is certain to take place and it will be initiated by MAGA.
You have just outlined my ever present nightmare. And now Trump is grabbing $1.775 billion dollars to compensate the jan/ 6 rioters. do not be fooled by this, it is not compensation. It is him funding them for the next insurrection. think what the Proud Boys and Oathkeepers could do with that much money. No blue state will be safe nor any who does not bend the knee.
I can’t even think this is possible. If the democrats lost the midterms, it will because of cheating. The polls are not wrong, America is done with Trump. If he steals the midterms it’s time for a revolution and rebellion. In the streets. We absolutely cannot allow the election to be stolen. Period!
So glad I found you here. I am married to the quintessential optimist (opposites do, in fact, attract). I have to keep telling him there is real danger here, even as he fights for veterans' and military family rights. This regime, this group of despicable anti-democracy fools, MUST GO. Anxious to keep reading your pieces because we need all the advice we can get. #HoldingFast and yet crying for our country, too.
This is making me feel sick to my stomach. I find it impossible to understand why so many republicans are willing to forsake our 250 year old democracy. And then to see Republican senators who have lost their primaries FINALLY vote with the Democrats to stop the madness? I hope it’s not too little too late. That just makes me insane. They KNOW what’s right and yet continue to vote along party lines just to keep their jobs. That is so utterly cowardly and disgusting. I couldn’t understand why they allowed his 2016 candidacy in the first place. And here we are. 🤬
Chrissy...thank you for writing this...and I want you to know that the sick feeling you're describing...is NOT weakness.
It's a sign that your moral compass is STILL working...when a lot of people's have gone quiet.
You've actually put your finger on the thing that matters most. The cruelest part isn't the senators who genuinely believe in this. It's the ones who DON'T....the ones who know EXACTLY what's right...and vote against it anyway.
And the fact that some of them only find their spine...AFTER they've already lost a primary tells you everything: it was never about conviction.
It was about the job. Once the job is gone...the truth becomes affordable.
-Jack
And the thorn in my side is that this is all being carried out by the most disgusting, the most ignorant, vile person on earth.
The republicans will cheat. They cheat in every election.
Walter...sadly, any sane person would agree with you.
-Jack
Agree
They are in the cheating profession!
The fear of the unknown causes overreaction. Keeping yourself in check without fear and over reactivity is a tough and necessary challenge. This administration is not smart enough to knowingly cause an ongoing historic disaster as the one we as a geopolitical community are experiencing. Who is actually in charge? Do we really want to know? I treasure my life. Taking a stand takes grit. It takes courage to withstand judgement that is derived from misconceptions and miscommunications.
I would certainly like to see our children overcome our obvious weaknesses and become the stronger quiet voice that overcomes these manmade creations of fear. Thank you Jack.
Steady as we go.
Alexa...this is one of the most clear-eyed things anyone has written to me...and...I want you to notice how far you've traveled in just a few messages.
You started out feeling sick to your stomach. You're ending HERE....naming your own fear... keeping it in check...and still resolved to stand.
That's not a small thing. That's exactly the muscle that gets people through hard stretches of history.
What you said about fear of the unknown driving overreaction...that's the whole game... really.
The pull toward catastrophizing...and the pull toward surrender...are the SAME PULL wearing two different coats.
Both end with a person sitting down. Staying UPRIGHT in the uncertain middle...WITHOUT flinching and without going numb...is the actual discipline. You've found it.
And...that line about our children becoming the stronger quiet voice... I'll be thinking about that for a while.
It reframes the stakes correctly. We may not get to see the resolution of all this. The job isn't to win it single-handedly in our own lifetime...and...I don't think we will...it's to hand the next people a country...and a temperament...WORTH inheriting. Quiet...steady... unafraid.
You're already modeling the thing you hope they'll carry.
Thank you for being the kind of reader who makes this work feel less lonely. Steady as we go...I'll be right here.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Thank you so much Jack!
This was so fun to read. You sort of walked each other through what was going on, like a call-and-response song. Through each message I quietly spoke the word “yes” to myself. Grateful for the parts that were all playing in community here.
We are fortunate to have one another.
#Holdfast
We need to see this as a long term commitment!! Our children will either benefit or pay the price for what we do now.
You are such an anchor in these stormy winds. Looking forward to the paid post. I want shirts and caps that say: #HoldFast! Can you design some?
Sara...what a kind thing to say...thank you.
Honestly, it works both ways: subscribers like YOU are a good part of what keeps me steady enough to write.
And I love the merch idea. #HoldFast started as a sign-off and it's turned into something people seem to actually want to carry around...which tells me it's hitting a nerve.
I'm sketching a few shirt and cap concepts now. Once the paid report is out I'll share the designs and figure out the simplest way to get them made.
Stay tuned...and hold fast.
#HoldFast
-Jack
AWESOME! Yes, I was reading your work when you first introduced the phrase and it stuck with me. Just be sure there is nothing in the color red in them. I refuse to wear red these days.
AGREED!
What a perfect metaphor for Jack….an anchor….because he is. Thank you Cherae! #HOLDFAST
Perhaps I’m ironing out the wrinkles on the white flag too soon but I sometimes think the Nov 2026 elections are already fraught with tampering. I think these primaries are important to 47 and his cabal because they are picking the winners now. The top vote getters in November may not matter because it won’t be counted / reported accurately. Has even one candidate that 47 has endorsed declined the endorsement?
Mary...you said it yourself...you may be ironing the white flag too soon.
Hold onto that instinct. It's the honest part of you, and it's right.
Here's where I think you're genuinely onto something: the primaries DO matter enormously...and...for exactly the reason you name.
A contested general election can be lost. A primary where the field has been cleared by an endorsement...a threat...or a well-funded challenger...is decided before most voters are paying attention.
That's real...it's documented...and...it's happening in the open...no conspiracy required. Picking the nominees is how you shape the outcome...without EVER touching a ballot count.
So your eye for the primaries is sharp!
-Jack
I think you may be right. Hate to say it but the more I read I am questioning the results of the 2024 election.
I'm right there with you. FIRMLY, Nancy.
-Jack
Trump and Elon stole 2024, they have as much outright admitted it.
This is about the only story I can follow closely, maybe it’s the significance, maybe perverse curiosity, maybe a love of horror stories, I don’t know. But if this DOJ won’t even turn over evidence in two murders to local authorities, as was said “who is guarding the guards”?
I have questioned those 2024 results all along, Nancy. One person who knew about the details of the computers explained it in a comment to the Robert Reich substack long ago, and I believe what he wrote.
Also, the claimed winner of the main office gave special thanks to his then main person, praising his work, especially with computers, and especially in Pennsylvania.
While there are people who put down any questioning of that particular election, I will never stop believing what I believe. Neither do I blame the fine person who is said to have lost. She is of fine character, and I trust her.
Only fraught if we stop bringing attention to the bad actors!
The ground is already shifting....steady tremors...
I miss the days when day to day politics were boring 😔 I'm hoping on the American People will stand up and Vote this November and in 2028. We simply can't afford Republicans anymore. Thanks again Jack, for your insight and will reStack ASAP 💯👍
Karen...that line...missing when politics was boring...I think a lot of people feel exactly that and haven't found the words for it.
There's no shame in it. Wanting the ordinary back isn't apathy; it's a sign you understand what's ACTUALLY at stake.
Boring politics...is what a healthy country gets to have. Wanting it back...is wanting the country to be WELL.
And you've landed in the right place: the hope isn't a wish...it's a plan.
Show up in November, show up in 2028...bring people with you.
That's not naive...turnout is the one variable on the board that no court ruling...no affidavit...and no amount of structural tilt can fully cancel out.
It's the part that's genuinely in your hands.
Thank you for the restack...that's how this work finds the next person who needs it...so it means a great deal. Rest when you need to...then back to it.
Steady as we go.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Jack, you hit the nail on the head…it’s all about institutional control! The other issues are triggers and “window dressing” to distract the voters from the very real danger of the moment we are facing! This is the real worry that keeps me awake at night! We are doing everything that we can to help the “Blue Wave” occur…donating to candidates across the country, small donations from coast to coast. I am also contacting our elected representatives urging them to stand up and fight back in any way possible! We’re on the street when necessary and I think that a General Strike has to be really organized and repeated until we drive the message home to corporate America, too…they are enabling this regime! Look forward to your next post…thanks!
There are enough of us if everyone votes. It will be challenging but it is doable. I was listening to Ken harbaugh and Fred well man who is running for congress and lives in Missouri. Fred said feedback he is getting is regular republicans are fed up and he feels that by being on the ground and meeting people where they are has shown him the people are ready for truth and honesty. He said the current congress person the is republican is on their 13 year and does not respond the people in her district or have any contact. I think if a deep red state like that can elect a dem that is campaigning in affordability, accountability, and honesty has a great chance to flip a seat in congress. I also think there are more to be flipped. We just have to keep reminding people what we are fighting for!
Teri..."There are enough of us if everyone votes"...that's the WHOLE thing in one sentence. Keep saying it. It's not a slogan...it's just arithmetic...and arithmetic is harder to argue with than hope.
You've got the Wellman details basically right (and...Fred is a good friend of mine. We did an event together last year) and they're worth getting precise because precision is persuasive.
The incumbent is Ann Wagner...and she's held that seat since 2013...so yes, your '13 years' is exactly right. Wellman is a 22-year Army veteran...West Point...multiple Iraq deployments...running on lowering costs...protecting Social Security and Medicare...and accountability. That's a strong profile for that district.
One thing I'd adjust, and it actually helps your case: Missouri's 2nd isn't really 'deep red.' It's suburban St. Louis...St. Charles, Franklin...parts of St. Louis and Jefferson counties... and the Democratic campaign arm has already put Wagner on its target list...precisely because suburban seats like hers,,,get competitive when the national mood sours on the party in power.
So...this isn't a long shot in hostile territory. It's a REACHABLE suburban seat where an incumbent has gotten comfortable...and STOPPED showing up.
That's a better story than 'miracle in a red state,'...and...it's the TRUE one.
The other thing to keep straight: Wellman is in a five-way Democratic primary on August 4...he isn't the nominee yet. Not a knock on him...just worth knowing so you're not surprised...and a reminder that the August primary is a REAL date on your calendar...not just November.
But...your core instinct is sound...and the Wellman-on-the-ground point is the most important thing you said.
An incumbent who's stopped holding town halls and stopped answering her district...has handed her challenger the one opening that matters: just showing up.
'Affordability...accountability...honesty' plus...actually being in the room beats an absentee incumbent...more often than people expect.
And...you're right that it's not one seat...the same suburban PATTERN repeats in districts across the country.
So...KEEP reminding people what we're fighting for. That's not naive optimism. It's the JOB.
#HoldFast
I watched Ken and Fred on one of Ken’s podcasts and really liked what Fred was saying. I am hoping that because Jess Piper talks how the republicans never have competition they don’t bother to campaign in Missouri that hearing they are now getting competition that many seats will flip. Schools, hospitals and health plus enough to live on are very front and center this time. Here in Florida the Supreme Court has all republicans thanks to deathsantis. And the legislature is such that if some republicans don’t cross the aisle we lose what was on the ballot. But there is hope because the Hispanic and black communities are NOT happy. Especially the Cubans in Miami. So we just
#HOLDFAST
Teri
I like Wellman.
So Jack what do you think the point of the Fulton County raid and removal of the ballots was about?
And I have to say your Substack and seeing solid folks #Holding Fast gives me a modicum of Hope
Donna...good question...and an important one to get right...because the Fulton County story is a near-perfect illustration of the thing I keep trying to describe.
Here's what we actually know.
On January 28, FBI agents executed a search warrant at Fulton County's elections hub in Union City...and removed roughly 700 boxes of 2020 election materials...ballots...tabulator tapes...ballot images...and voter rolls.
The county sued to get them back.
A federal judge has so far let the DOJ keep them, but...and this part matters...the same judge openly called portions of the FBI's affidavit 'misleading' and noted it omitted innocent explanations for the irregularities investigators cited.
A bipartisan group of eight former U.S. attorneys filed a brief calling the warrant unconstitutional.
The NAACP and the ACLU...went to court specifically to stop the seized voter data from being used for ANYTHING beyond the stated investigation...things like voter-roll purging or immigration enforcement.
So what was the point of it?
I'd be honest with you and say:
I can't read minds...and anyone who claims certainty about motive is selling something...bullshit, most likely.
But...the PATTERN is readable.
This concerns the 2020 election...a contest audited...recounted...litigated...and settled years ago.
Fulton County itself still holds copies of everything seized...which the judge noted.
The county's own argument in court is that the criminal warrant was a 'pretext' to grab records the administration had already been trying to get through a civil lawsuit.
If that reading is right...the 'point' isn't really the 2020 ballots. It's three things at once: keeping the grievance about 2020 alive as a live issue heading into the midterms; getting hold of detailed Georgia voter data; and sending a message...to every county election office in the country...that the federal government will come through your doors.
That last one is the quiet part. You don't need to find fraud. You need every local elections official to feel watched. That's the 'selective fear' mechanism I wrote about... working exactly as designed.
But...notice the other half of the story...because it's the half that should give you more than a modicum of hope.
Fulton County sued. The NAACP sued. The ACLU sued. Eight former prosecutors...from both parties...put their names on a brief.
A judge...even while ruling against the county...said PLAINLY... on the record....that the government's affidavit was misleading. The system PUSHED BACK. Loudly...in public...on paper. That is what institutions resisting looks like..not cinematic, but REAL.
And...that's the right note to end on...because you said this newsletter and seeing solid folks holding fast gives you a modicum of hope.
Hold onto that modicum. A modicum is not nothing...it's the foothold.
Despair would have you believe the raid proves the game is over. The lawsuits...the briefs... the judge's own words prove it isn't.
The fight is live. People are in it. And...you're paying attention...which is its own form of being in it.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Jack, I have that sick feeling that Chrissy has too. Part of it might be this migraine… not most of it though.
I couldn’t actually read it because of the migraine that refuses to go away… and I couldn’t wait after seeing the headline… so I listened. Did you know that it will suddenly speak a sentence or phrase with a French accent? Weird! DEI is pronounced Day… had to stop it a few times and figure it out… but I understood it… far too well.
Now I sit here with a renewed sense of anger and frustration at some people who refused to vote in 2024.. in spite of everything I could say. They won’t vote this time either. I know that and it makes me furious. The only person who could convince them is not very convincing.. gotta keep the peace… and that makes me furious.
Anyway, I look forward to the paid piece and hope the migraine eases but I’ll read and read again later if necessary. I’m hoping for some solid WHAT TO DO RIGHT NOW advice.. because suddenly the midterms seem far too close and the evil side feels quite a few moves ahead of us.
Thank you, Jack. I look forward… I think… to the paid article. I’d have already dissolved into despair if I hadn’t found you a decade or so ago and knew right then that you were a gift. Honestly, I had no idea just how much… I do now.
#Holdfast
~Susan
Is there anything you can take to help your migraine, Susan? I’ll send you all my softest ju-ju, which you need not accept if you prefer not to.
Excedrin Migraine sometimes helps. I also take magnesium glycinate which helped Jack’s wife and at first it seemed to help but now, not so much. Maybe stress is making it worse. There are prescription meds but they aren’t anywhere close to being in my budget. I’ll take and appreciate any help you send. Thank you, Cherae.
~Susan
If you remember the breathing exercises Jack shared with us, you can dim your lights, close your eyes and try to focus on your breathing. Also, a nice warm bath helps me, or the negative ions during a shower. Get as comfortable as possible and release your cares for awhile. You are safe, you are strong, you are loved.
I’ve had severe panic disorder for over 33 years. I definitely know the breathing techniques and use them. Some of Jack’s have been better than all the psychiatrists, psychologists and therapists I’ve seen over the years though. Plus, he’s shared some other things that help with anxiety. I have meds for the… I’m having a heart attack… panic attacks. I take a little daily to try to prevent them because they are so severe and they make my BP skyrocket which isn’t good, of course. I do truly appreciate the suggestions though. They’re a kindness that I don’t always get from even those close to me.
Appreciate you Cherae!
~Susan
I understand how a panic/severe anxiety disorder can disrupt a person’s life. I’ve seen it up close and personal with a member of my family. I’m so sorry that you haven’t received the kind of support you needed.
I’m going to open my window for some cool air. Soft blanket, 3 sweet doggies, holding your hand.
Why are you framing this as a consequence of Democrats being wiped out electorally? What evidence do you have that this is a likely outcome? Isn't it far more likely that, at worse, the GOP tries to sabotage the election and/or challenge the results, neither scenario which would equate with Democrats being drubbed at the polls. The framing is unwarranted under current conditions and not likely to change as a result where MAGA becomes popular in the six months.
Frank...this is the best pushback I've gotten on the piece...and I'm not going to wave it away...you've caught something real, so let me answer straight.
You're right that I never established the premise. The article runs on 'if Democrats get crushed,' and then spends three thousand words on what follows...without ever making the case that a crushing is likely.
That's a structural weakness. A conditional is only as useful as the odds you assign the condition...and I left those odds blank. Fair hit.
You're also right on the base rates...and they cut against me.
The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. When a president is underwater in approval, the losses get steeper, not shallower.
So if anything, the boring historical expectation is that the party in power takes damage in November...the opposite of the scenario my article is built around. I didn't reckon with that, and I should have.
And...your alternative is sharper than my framing: the more probable bad outcome isn't Democrats being repudiated at the polls...it's a close result that gets sabotaged, contested, or muddied after the fact.
Those are very different threats. Mine assumes a genuine popular mandate hands the movement permission.
Yours assumes NO mandate arrives...so...the field gets tilted and the result gets fought instead. Yours is better supported by current conditions. I'll concede that cleanly.
So why did I write it the way I did? Honest answer, not a justification: the 'crushing defeat' scenario is the one readers are LEAST PREPARED FOR AND MOST PARALYZED BY...so it's the one I find most USEFUL to walk through. When I keep in mind...why I'm here...and what my goal is when it comes to my writing...it makes the perspective I take quite simple...and easy.
But 'useful to examine' is not the same as 'likely,' and I blurred those two things.
A worst-case stress test should be labeled as a stress test...a low-probability...high-consequence branch...not delivered in a tone that implies it's the base case.
The piece would have been more honest, and frankly more credible, if it had said so plainly up top and spent a paragraph on probabilities.
I'd put the realistic distribution closer to what you describe: most likely the in-party loses ground; the genuine danger concentrated in sabotage-and-contest scenarios, not in a mandate.
I'd rather have a subscriber who holds my arguments to account than one who just nods along. This sharpens the next piece. Thank you for it — and keep doing exactly this.
And...if I didn't end with this, it would be negligence of the worst kind: Everything about the elections is going to be far worse that most Americans care to think about. There is every reason to think that...and no good ones...for thinking otherwise.
-Jack
Well, that's as honest a response I could have ever imagined. Here's framing I think is more likely: the GOP interference is demonstrable and in the open and the refusal to seat elected Democrats becomes more likely depending on how successfully the interference phase is executed. The former depends on how effective the redistricting efforts are executed and how many goons Chump can get to do his bidding whether it comes from DHS/ICE, the National Guard, the armed forces and/or the recipients of his $1.8M cop beater slush fund for seditionists. What I think we need to prepare for is the most significant level of state sponsored violence directed at the citizenry since Reconstruction and how we respond to it. If we can become Minneapolis writ large, we save the Republic. If not, we become Vichy, France. In either case, violence is certain to take place and it will be initiated by MAGA.
Frank, I think it’s a hypothetical question so as to be able to prepare for the possibility.
You have just outlined my ever present nightmare. And now Trump is grabbing $1.775 billion dollars to compensate the jan/ 6 rioters. do not be fooled by this, it is not compensation. It is him funding them for the next insurrection. think what the Proud Boys and Oathkeepers could do with that much money. No blue state will be safe nor any who does not bend the knee.
I can’t even think this is possible. If the democrats lost the midterms, it will because of cheating. The polls are not wrong, America is done with Trump. If he steals the midterms it’s time for a revolution and rebellion. In the streets. We absolutely cannot allow the election to be stolen. Period!
So glad I found you here. I am married to the quintessential optimist (opposites do, in fact, attract). I have to keep telling him there is real danger here, even as he fights for veterans' and military family rights. This regime, this group of despicable anti-democracy fools, MUST GO. Anxious to keep reading your pieces because we need all the advice we can get. #HoldingFast and yet crying for our country, too.
A good friend of mine never seemed to curse. I asked him why and he says “I do, but so rarely it makes more of an impression.”
Fuck.