Excellent analysis from start to finish. We are also witnessing his physical and mental decline in real time and it is accelerating. The revelations of his current eating habits and his taking 325mg aspirin daily will further accelerate the decline. Make no mistake he is still capable of doing a lot of damage. As a fellow healthcare professional, we have witnessed this type of decline too many times. I would be very surprised if he is still president by the end of the year.
Thank you, Linn. You’re right to flag the risk without slipping into diagnosis...that balance matters.
As you know...decline doesn’t have to be dramatic to be dangerous. Even subtle cognitive or physical degradation...narrows judgment...shortens fuse length...and increases impulsivity...especially in people already WIRED for escalation. That’s where damage happens.
And...I agree on the bigger point: the system doesn’t need him at FULL capacity to be destabilizing. In fact...systems are often most volatile when the figurehead is weakening but still empowered. That’s why this period deserves SOBER attention...not complacency.
One thing Trump craves as much as diet coke and golf is publicity. Publicity validates his self-established aura of being all knowing. Unfortunately for him, the media is now documenting his collapse every day. The more he complains about the coverage, the more he gets and the law of unintended consequences takes over. A Jack points out, Trump can't help himself so the death spiral will continue as he plays his violin on his sinking ship.
Exactly, Steven...and you’re putting your finger on the trap he CANNOT escape.
Publicity used to inflate his aura. Now it documents erosion. That’s the switch he doesn’t understand. He still believes attention...equals control, when...in reality it now functions like a daily audit of his decline.
And...you’re right about the feedback loop: every complaint summons more coverage... every outburst produces more evidence...and every attempt to reassert dominance accelerates the narrative...he most fears.
The law of unintended consequences is brutal when impulse replaces restraint.
The key point you make...and it matters...is that he doesn’t need to be “gone”...to be DANGEROUS.
Systems are often most volatile...when the figurehead is weakening....but still CENTRAL.
That’s when judgment narrows...grievance sharpens...and escalation FEELS like the only move left.
He can’t stop playing.
He can’t leave the stage.
And the audience is no longer applauding...they’re OBSERVING.
It's funny...when I saw the headline, this is where my mind went. I wondered if you were going to write about Trump's inability to be quiet and shadowy. Mob bosses stay in the shadows and the corners. They don't even let their subordinates get too loud, do they?
Julie...you’re exactly right...that instinct you had IS the tell.
Real mob bosses live in the MARGINS. They cultivate shadows. They shut subordinates up...because noise creates exposure...witnesses...and records. Silence is how risk gets pushed outward...and deniability stays intact.
Trump does the OPPOSITE. He drags everything into the light...centers himself in every conflict...and confuses visibility with control.
That’s not how durable power operates; it’s how you make yourself the single point of FAILURE.
When a leader can’t be quiet...can’t delegate...and can’t stay offstage...the system starts reorganizing WITHOUT them. That’s the phase we’re watching now. (And I'm enjoying it...immensely, even though it doesn't signal "everything's okay.")
I still find this to be a c edible assessment of his ongoing mental decline: frontotemporal dementia plus malignant Narcissism. It's a really interesting analysis, especially the confabulation part.
I love reading this and getting it. It's happening and I'm not just here for it, I understand it in real time, thanks to you! Happy New Year to you and your family.
Lori Smith, that means a great deal to me...thank you. And that distinction you make matters: not just watching it happen...but understanding it IN REAL TIME.
That’s the whole point of this work. Clarity beats adrenaline...every time.
I’m grateful you’re here...thinking it through with me. Wishing YOU and your family a healthy...grounded...and hopeful New Year. We’ll keep making sense of the noise... together.
Just this morning before I read this, I had a feeling that all the slower modes of stopping Trump are finally catching up with him: lawsuits, judgments, spent political capital, amateurish coverup of Epstein files.
Sara, that’s a sharp way to put it...the slow mechanisms...finally syncing up.
Power figures like Trump...are usually built to outrun any single threat...but they struggle when MULTIPLE low-drama forces...converge at once: courts...money...fatigue...credibility...and time.
What feels like “good news” isn’t a sudden win....it’s gravity reasserting itself.
Lawsuits don’t shout. Judgments don’t posture. Spent capital...doesn’t regenerate. And sloppy coverups...signal something deeper: loss of discipline.
Those slower systems always look weak...right up until they AREN'T. Starting the year with that clarity...is no small thing.
I’m looking forward to the follow-up article. From my observation chump is losing his power. He doesn’t have the hold on people that he once had. He will most likely escalate attacks in order to hold on to power.
Lori, you’re seeing it clearly. Loss of power rarely looks like retreat...it looks like escalation.
When leverage fades...volume goes up. When control slips...attacks multiply. That’s not a comeback move...it’s a tell.
And you’re right about the hold weakening. Power doesn’t disappear all at once...it thins.
Fewer people take risks. Fewer defend instinctively. More WAIT...hedge...or go quiet.
Escalation is often the LAST tool left...when the others stop working.
The follow-up dives straight into that dynamic; why escalation accelerates decline...who benefits from it...and how power quietly migrates ELSEWHERE... while the figurehead rages.
The collapse will be interesting to watch. Those who kissed Trump's ring won't know where to hide. We collectively will demand that those people be brought to justice because of the many crimes that they committed for Trump against the USA and the world.
Lynn...I understand the feeling...accountability MATTERS.
I say the following in a most respectful way, Lynn...I'd just gently caution against framing this as anything remotely close to a hunt or a purge (you didn't, this is just for everyone in general)...because that’s where things can slide into the very logic...that enabled Trump in the first place.
What usually happens...instead...and what actually works...is quieter and more durable:
Facts surface...records matter...cases are built...and responsibility is assigned through lawful processes.
Some people WILL face consequences. Others will fade into irrelevance. Not everyone who enabled him committed crimes...but...many DID ENABLE damage.
The key thing is this...justice is strongest when it’s boring...procedural...and indifferent to vengeance. (That feels as wrong to me, as it likely does to YOU. But...)
That’s how societies heal...without tearing themselves apart...and it’s also how the truth... tends to STICK.
Thank you, Jack, for clarifying and expanding on what I wrote. Yes, the people who violated our laws in the name of Trump, especially human rights violations, must be brought to justice. The people who looked the other way, knew what Trump was doing, but didn't commit crimes should never again work in our government. Accountability appropriately comes in many forms.
I find I read Jack's posts very slowly. I don't want to miss any subtle detail. I slow down, to take it all in. It's such good and informative writing. I don't wantnto miss a thing. So glad to be a subscriber.
His collapse as a leader is inevitable. His failure as a president was not, at first, inevitable but became apparent within the first few weeks rather than the end of eight (twelve) years. His failure as a businessman was not inevitable but took place repeatedly and despite much support from opportunistic businessmen, politicians, and the public. Throughout, Trump has never stopped believing and persisting. All will come apart for the same reason. Hubris, conceit, contempt, and ignorance played a central role in all his endeavors, start to finish. Now the rules of his life feed into the end of his life, his lives.
Cur.. Yar… is leaving the sinking ship with a rather loud announcement… which surprised me ( the loud calling attention to his leaving - not the fact that he’s actually leaving.) Makes me wonder why?
This article nails one thing: Trump doesn’t understand power—but not in some abstract, “rules of strategy” way. He’s a symptom of a system built to protect the rich and the powerful, no matter how chaotic or destructive they are. His “failures” aren’t accidental—they’re the inevitable outcome of a society where loyalty to institutions, law, and public good is optional if you have money and media influence.
The real lesson isn’t about Trump’s emotional missteps—it’s that the system allows a con man to bend rules, evade accountability, and still command a devoted base. That’s not a failure of personality; it’s a failure of democracy itself.
We need structural change, not just strategy lessons for billionaires who can’t follow rules.
Jack - This article makes so much sense to me. I feel like the little boy in the fairy tale who finally says that the emperor has no clothes- and suddenly everyone who previously accepted the emperor’s explanation that he was wearing clothes begins acknowledging the reality of the situation. We have been pulverized so long by Trump’s theatrics it is refreshing to know our personal observations weren’t that off base, especially after being guided by your commentary.
Jack, you’ve described trump since he took the stage in 2015. I keep waiting for the fallout and it still hasn’t happened (I’m hoping YET). This guy certainly doesn’t seem to face any natural consequences
Excellent analysis from start to finish. We are also witnessing his physical and mental decline in real time and it is accelerating. The revelations of his current eating habits and his taking 325mg aspirin daily will further accelerate the decline. Make no mistake he is still capable of doing a lot of damage. As a fellow healthcare professional, we have witnessed this type of decline too many times. I would be very surprised if he is still president by the end of the year.
Thank you, Linn. You’re right to flag the risk without slipping into diagnosis...that balance matters.
As you know...decline doesn’t have to be dramatic to be dangerous. Even subtle cognitive or physical degradation...narrows judgment...shortens fuse length...and increases impulsivity...especially in people already WIRED for escalation. That’s where damage happens.
And...I agree on the bigger point: the system doesn’t need him at FULL capacity to be destabilizing. In fact...systems are often most volatile when the figurehead is weakening but still empowered. That’s why this period deserves SOBER attention...not complacency.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Agreed! This can be when he is the most dangerous, especially when surrounded by people with evil intentions of their own.
One thing Trump craves as much as diet coke and golf is publicity. Publicity validates his self-established aura of being all knowing. Unfortunately for him, the media is now documenting his collapse every day. The more he complains about the coverage, the more he gets and the law of unintended consequences takes over. A Jack points out, Trump can't help himself so the death spiral will continue as he plays his violin on his sinking ship.
Exactly, Steven...and you’re putting your finger on the trap he CANNOT escape.
Publicity used to inflate his aura. Now it documents erosion. That’s the switch he doesn’t understand. He still believes attention...equals control, when...in reality it now functions like a daily audit of his decline.
And...you’re right about the feedback loop: every complaint summons more coverage... every outburst produces more evidence...and every attempt to reassert dominance accelerates the narrative...he most fears.
The law of unintended consequences is brutal when impulse replaces restraint.
The key point you make...and it matters...is that he doesn’t need to be “gone”...to be DANGEROUS.
Systems are often most volatile...when the figurehead is weakening....but still CENTRAL.
That’s when judgment narrows...grievance sharpens...and escalation FEELS like the only move left.
He can’t stop playing.
He can’t leave the stage.
And the audience is no longer applauding...they’re OBSERVING.
That’s not recovery territory. That’s a spiral.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Exactly.
It's funny...when I saw the headline, this is where my mind went. I wondered if you were going to write about Trump's inability to be quiet and shadowy. Mob bosses stay in the shadows and the corners. They don't even let their subordinates get too loud, do they?
Julie...you’re exactly right...that instinct you had IS the tell.
Real mob bosses live in the MARGINS. They cultivate shadows. They shut subordinates up...because noise creates exposure...witnesses...and records. Silence is how risk gets pushed outward...and deniability stays intact.
Trump does the OPPOSITE. He drags everything into the light...centers himself in every conflict...and confuses visibility with control.
That’s not how durable power operates; it’s how you make yourself the single point of FAILURE.
When a leader can’t be quiet...can’t delegate...and can’t stay offstage...the system starts reorganizing WITHOUT them. That’s the phase we’re watching now. (And I'm enjoying it...immensely, even though it doesn't signal "everything's okay.")
#HoldFast
-Jack
Donny’s a noisemaker. He doesn’t understand that over time people adapt to noise. At some point they just tune it out.
Right on the money, Chichi. Noise habituation is REAL.
#HoldFast
-Jack
I still find this to be a c edible assessment of his ongoing mental decline: frontotemporal dementia plus malignant Narcissism. It's a really interesting analysis, especially the confabulation part.
https://frankgeorge8675309.substack.com/p/dammit-its-not-alzheimers-heres-why-c9f?triedRedirect=true
Jack,
I love reading this and getting it. It's happening and I'm not just here for it, I understand it in real time, thanks to you! Happy New Year to you and your family.
Lori
Lori Smith, that means a great deal to me...thank you. And that distinction you make matters: not just watching it happen...but understanding it IN REAL TIME.
That’s the whole point of this work. Clarity beats adrenaline...every time.
I’m grateful you’re here...thinking it through with me. Wishing YOU and your family a healthy...grounded...and hopeful New Year. We’ll keep making sense of the noise... together.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Just this morning before I read this, I had a feeling that all the slower modes of stopping Trump are finally catching up with him: lawsuits, judgments, spent political capital, amateurish coverup of Epstein files.
Nice to start the year with some good news.
Sara, that’s a sharp way to put it...the slow mechanisms...finally syncing up.
Power figures like Trump...are usually built to outrun any single threat...but they struggle when MULTIPLE low-drama forces...converge at once: courts...money...fatigue...credibility...and time.
What feels like “good news” isn’t a sudden win....it’s gravity reasserting itself.
Lawsuits don’t shout. Judgments don’t posture. Spent capital...doesn’t regenerate. And sloppy coverups...signal something deeper: loss of discipline.
Those slower systems always look weak...right up until they AREN'T. Starting the year with that clarity...is no small thing.
#HoldFast
-Jack
I’m looking forward to the follow-up article. From my observation chump is losing his power. He doesn’t have the hold on people that he once had. He will most likely escalate attacks in order to hold on to power.
Lori, you’re seeing it clearly. Loss of power rarely looks like retreat...it looks like escalation.
When leverage fades...volume goes up. When control slips...attacks multiply. That’s not a comeback move...it’s a tell.
And you’re right about the hold weakening. Power doesn’t disappear all at once...it thins.
Fewer people take risks. Fewer defend instinctively. More WAIT...hedge...or go quiet.
Escalation is often the LAST tool left...when the others stop working.
The follow-up dives straight into that dynamic; why escalation accelerates decline...who benefits from it...and how power quietly migrates ELSEWHERE... while the figurehead rages.
#HoldFast
-Jack
The collapse will be interesting to watch. Those who kissed Trump's ring won't know where to hide. We collectively will demand that those people be brought to justice because of the many crimes that they committed for Trump against the USA and the world.
Lynn...I understand the feeling...accountability MATTERS.
I say the following in a most respectful way, Lynn...I'd just gently caution against framing this as anything remotely close to a hunt or a purge (you didn't, this is just for everyone in general)...because that’s where things can slide into the very logic...that enabled Trump in the first place.
What usually happens...instead...and what actually works...is quieter and more durable:
Facts surface...records matter...cases are built...and responsibility is assigned through lawful processes.
Some people WILL face consequences. Others will fade into irrelevance. Not everyone who enabled him committed crimes...but...many DID ENABLE damage.
The key thing is this...justice is strongest when it’s boring...procedural...and indifferent to vengeance. (That feels as wrong to me, as it likely does to YOU. But...)
That’s how societies heal...without tearing themselves apart...and it’s also how the truth... tends to STICK.
Thank YOU for being here.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Thank you, Jack, for clarifying and expanding on what I wrote. Yes, the people who violated our laws in the name of Trump, especially human rights violations, must be brought to justice. The people who looked the other way, knew what Trump was doing, but didn't commit crimes should never again work in our government. Accountability appropriately comes in many forms.
I hope I wrote a little better that time. I want to enhance the sharing of thoughts, not detract from them.
I find I read Jack's posts very slowly. I don't want to miss any subtle detail. I slow down, to take it all in. It's such good and informative writing. I don't wantnto miss a thing. So glad to be a subscriber.
Many times I read and then re-read again, just to make double sure I comprehend it!
His collapse as a leader is inevitable. His failure as a president was not, at first, inevitable but became apparent within the first few weeks rather than the end of eight (twelve) years. His failure as a businessman was not inevitable but took place repeatedly and despite much support from opportunistic businessmen, politicians, and the public. Throughout, Trump has never stopped believing and persisting. All will come apart for the same reason. Hubris, conceit, contempt, and ignorance played a central role in all his endeavors, start to finish. Now the rules of his life feed into the end of his life, his lives.
Cur.. Yar… is leaving the sinking ship with a rather loud announcement… which surprised me ( the loud calling attention to his leaving - not the fact that he’s actually leaving.) Makes me wonder why?
I think Curtis Yarvin is reading the tea leaves early and concluding history will come for his ass as well!
This article nails one thing: Trump doesn’t understand power—but not in some abstract, “rules of strategy” way. He’s a symptom of a system built to protect the rich and the powerful, no matter how chaotic or destructive they are. His “failures” aren’t accidental—they’re the inevitable outcome of a society where loyalty to institutions, law, and public good is optional if you have money and media influence.
The real lesson isn’t about Trump’s emotional missteps—it’s that the system allows a con man to bend rules, evade accountability, and still command a devoted base. That’s not a failure of personality; it’s a failure of democracy itself.
We need structural change, not just strategy lessons for billionaires who can’t follow rules.
Jack - This article makes so much sense to me. I feel like the little boy in the fairy tale who finally says that the emperor has no clothes- and suddenly everyone who previously accepted the emperor’s explanation that he was wearing clothes begins acknowledging the reality of the situation. We have been pulverized so long by Trump’s theatrics it is refreshing to know our personal observations weren’t that off base, especially after being guided by your commentary.
2 EXs: Exactly and
Excellent
Jack, you’ve described trump since he took the stage in 2015. I keep waiting for the fallout and it still hasn’t happened (I’m hoping YET). This guy certainly doesn’t seem to face any natural consequences
Thanks, Jack!