What People Are Struggling to Hold Right Now
What happens when familiar anchors stop holding
What People Are Struggling to Hold Right Now
What happens when familiar anchors stop holding
The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #759: Sunday, February 1st, 2026.
There is a moment that appears again and again in the 20th century.
Not the moment of victory.
Not even the moment of open struggle.
But…the moment when belief…begins to feel embarrassing.
When people stop saying “we will” and start saying, “I don’t see any evidence that we can.”
When belief…is dismissed as naïve.
When “being realistic” becomes indistinguishable…from standing down.
History tells us something uncomfortable about that moment:
That is when belief stops being symbolic…and becomes operational.
Because belief is not most powerful when it is popular.
It is most powerful when it is lonely.
The Mistake People Keep Making About Belief
Most people misunderstand what belief actually does.
They think belief is about confidence in outcomes.
It isn’t.
Belief is about keeping systems open when they are trying to close.
It is not optimism.
It is not denial.
It is not pretending the danger isn’t real.
Belief is what prevents premature surrender…the single act that guarantees loss.
And in every major struggle of the 20th century, the people who ultimately prevailed were very often the ones who continued to believe….after belief stopped being rewarded.
Britain, 1940: When Belief Had No Evidence Left
By the summer of 1940, Britain’s situation was objectively dire.
France had fallen.
The British Army had escaped Dunkirk without its equipment.
The Luftwaffe dominated the skies.
The United States remained neutral.
There was no evidence Britain would prevail.
Plenty of evidence…suggested it wouldn’t.
What made the difference was not a secret advantage…it was the refusal to treat the present as destiny.
Churchill’s insistence on belief did not change the facts on the ground.
It changed the timeline.
Belief kept Britain in the fight…long enough for conditions to change.
Had belief collapsed at the point when it made the least sense…history would have ended there…quietly…reasonably…and “realistically.”
The Civil Rights Movement: Faith Without Numbers
In the early years of the American civil rights movement, belief had almost no visible leverage.
The laws were against them.
The courts were slow.
Public opinion was hostile.
Violence was routine.
From a purely evidentiary standpoint…resistance looked futile.
And…yet…belief persisted…not as certainty…but as commitment.
The Montgomery Bus Boycott lasted over a year…not because people knew it would succeed…but because belief sustained participation when outcomes were unclear.
Belief kept people walking.
Walking created pressure.
Pressure forced change.
Without belief at the moment it looked most useless…nothing would have moved.
The Pattern History Keeps Repeating
Across the 20th century…whether in anti-fascist resistance…labor movements… independence struggles…or underground dissident networks…the same sequence appears:
Conditions worsen
Evidence becomes discouraging
Belief is labeled unrealistic
Participation drops
Power consolidates
Defeat becomes self-fulfilling
The people who later appear heroic in hindsight…are rarely the ones who believed when belief was fashionable.
They are the ones who believed…when belief felt pointless.
Mid-Article Pause
Take a moment before continuing.
In the comments, finish this sentence honestly:
“The moment I started wondering whether belief still mattered was when _______.”
(One sentence is enough. Don’t overthink it.)
Why “I See No Evidence” Is the Most Dangerous Sentence
When people say, “I see no evidence that we will prevail,” they are usually saying something else:
The signals I relied on for reassurance are gone.
This feels responsible.
Measured.
Adult.
But history…teaches a harsher truth:
Evidence always trails outcomes.
If victory were visible in advance…it would not require courage.
It would require patience.
The moments that decide history…are the ones where belief has no external validation…where belief itself… becomes the scarce resource.
That is why belief matters most….after hope fades.
Why This Moment Is Different; and More Dangerous
The present moment carries a unique risk that the 20th century did not fully confront.
Today, belief doesn’t just fade…it is actively ridiculed.
We live in a culture that equates disbelief…with intelligence….cynicism with wisdom… and emotional detachment…with realism.
People are encouraged to say:
“The system is already captured.”
“It’s too late.”
“Nothing we do matters anymore.”
These statements feel sober.
They feel informed.
But…they are not neutral observations.
They are withdrawals of agency.
And when belief withdraws…power does not hesitate…it fills the vacuum.
Belief Is Not About Winning Tomorrow
This is the most important clarification:
Belief is not a prediction.
It is a refusal to close the future prematurely.
Belief says:
The system is still dynamic.
Human behavior is still adaptive.
Power still depends on participation…compliance…and legitimacy.
History shows that collapse often looks inevitable…right up until it isn’t.
But only if belief survives…long enough for conditions to shift.
The Moment Belief Becomes the Deciding Factor
Belief becomes decisive precisely when it feels weightless.
When it no longer generates comfort.
When it no longer rallies crowds.
When it no longer produces dopamine or certainty.
At that point…belief does something quieter but far more important:
It keeps people engaged.
And engagement…continued participation…refusal to disengage…refusal to normalize…is the raw material from which change is later built.
Once belief disappears…outcomes stop being contested.
The Final Lesson the 20th Century Leaves Us
Every major victory that now looks inevitable once passed through a phase where it looked impossible.
And at that stage, belief was not an accessory.
It was the only thing standing between uncertain struggle and certain loss.
The people who prevailed did not believe because they saw a clear path forward.
They believed…because not believing…guaranteed there would be none.
That is the lesson history keeps trying to teach us.
And…it is why…right now…understanding the importance of belief…when it appears to have no weight at all is not inspirational.
It is strategic.
Because belief is never most important when it feels powerful.
It is most important…when it is all that’s left.
#HoldFast
Back soon.
-Jack
Jack Hopkins
P.S.
People who stay engaged at moments like this…rarely look heroic in real time.
They just refuse to surrender the future early.
If you’re still reading…that’s the muscle you’re exercising here.
Thank you, as always. So, I want to tell you what happened yesterday. I live in NH, which, you may know has several forms of voting for local issues. Our town is called an SB2 town after Senate Bill 2 which means we have 2 "town meetings" (well 3 actually), the first is called a deliberative session where the voters deliberate on the warrant articles that relate to the town's budget. Each article is discussed and potentially amended. Once that meeting is held, the following month, the voters go to the polls and vote. Deliberative sessions are held on 2 different budgets, the "town side" which is the town's administration discussion (police, fire, public works, etc.) and the "school side". Yesterday was the town side session. Last year, it went on for over 7 hours as nay-sayers stood up and questioned every budget item. They asked which budget committee or council member voted "no" on each article (over 20 articles). They tried to amend every article to either lessen or zero out budgets (many of the articles are about putting $$ aside for future expenditures, a savings plan, if you will, for major infrastructure costs). This year, people listened, people asked legitimate questions, and when one audience member tried to get testy and when one council member insulted the public works department, the audience had none of it. The session lasted 4 hours (21 articles), and even in tough economic times, the members agreed that the expenditures are necessary and NO article was amended or zeroed out. It was a very different feel from last year's contentious meeting, and I am more hopeful that people see the need for services and understand that town workers deserve appropriate pay and benefits. We'll see what that school side looks like. Last year, voters voted down the article to repair a school roof which is failing. I am hopeful that this year, intellect will prevail.
Great article! I believe, and I will not stop believing! YES, we can 👊🏿👊🏾👊🏽👊👊🏼👊🏻❤️