We’re Winning So Hard Many People Can Barely Afford To Drive To Work
Six months, one collapsed ceasefire, four-dollar gas, and an empty Pacific. But the strait is definitely about to open. Any day now.
We’re Winning So Hard Many People Can Barely Afford To Drive To Work
Six months, one collapsed ceasefire, four-dollar gas, and an empty Pacific. But the strait is definitely about to open. Any day now.
The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #1,000: Sunday, August 16th, 2026
First…this is my one-thousandth article for The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter.
Nuts.
When I started…I didn’t know if I’d write ten. A hundred never crossed my mind. A thousand wasn’t a number I’d have said out loud.
I’m going for another thousand before I even think about stopping. Safe bet I’ll be writing until they put me in the ground.
Now, for the article. Let me start with the good news.
We are, according to the Donald Trump…defeating Iran very badly. He said so Friday at a police academy in Garden City…and…I have no reason to doubt a man who also announced he’d be annexing an ocean.
Now…let me walk you through what winning looks like.
The war started February 28th. It is now the middle of August. In between we’ve had one ceasefire…one signed memorandum of understanding…one collapse of both…and gasoline at four dollars and one cent a gallon…up nearly 35% from before we started defeating anybody.
Let’s have a round of applause for the Royal Ass-Kicking we’re giving Iran. By this time next year, the thumping they’re taking from the United States will have gas “down” to $9 a gallon.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. That’s the twenty-one miles of water this entire war is now about. It was closed in March. It is closed in August.
But…we’re winning it very badly…and I want to be respectful of that.
Let’s Define Victory, Since Nobody Else Has
Every war needs a condition that ends it. So what’s ours?
Open the strait.
Fine. Here’s the trouble with that…and it’s the kind of trouble no amount of ordnance solves:
Iran doesn’t have to do anything.
They don’t have to win a battle. They don’t have to sink a carrier. They don’t have to hold territory…or take a city…or defeat anyone in the field.
They have to sit next to a waterway. Which…by the way…they’ve done for several thousand years…and are frankly quite good at.
Our victory requires action. Their victory requires geography.
And…dear friend…you’ll notice we haven’t found a way to bomb geography yet; though…I imagine…one of the many intellectually superior hot rods at the White House is working on it.
The Part Where We Already Won Once
Here’s my favorite chapter of this whole miserable business.
On June 17th, Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a memorandum. The blockade would come off. Iran would make arrangements for safe passage of commercial vessels. Sixty days.
Sixty days!
We got about three weeks.
By July…it had fallen apart…the strait was shut again…and the blockade was back on. So…we have…technically…already achieved our objective once. We held it for less time than a milk carton holds milk before it’s clabbered…and can be moved to a container that is labeled “Cottage Cheese.”
And…now the plan…is to do that again, except harder.
Meanwhile, In The Column Marked “Cost”
Let’s tally what six months of winning has purchased.
Gas at four bucks.
Up 34.6% from before the war. The Vice President has publicly acknowledged the political heat…which is a diplomatic way…of saying voters can read a sign at a filling station.
An empty ammunition shelf.
The Pentagon has gone to defense contractors…asking them to ramp up production…because stockpiles are running low. Six months in. Against one adversary. Sit with that for a moment…and then think about how many adversaries there are.
The largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global market.
That’s the International Energy Agency’s characterization…not mine.
And as of yesterday, no carrier in Asia.
We pulled the last one. The entire Pacific…the theater every strategist in Washington has spent a decade calling the priority…is now a carrier-free zone…because the ships are all parked outside a strait we insisted in March…was somebody else’s problem.
If you were trying to design a policy that made China’s month…I’m not sure you could do better. No. I don’t think you could.
About That Total Control
Trump has said repeatedly that we have total control of the strait.
The Defense Secretary told reporters in Panama…that the Navy can maintain the blockade indefinitely…because…we’ll just rotate ships in and out.
Two small footnotes.
On Thursday…wo UAE tankers were attacked while transiting the strait. That’s inside the zone of total control. Total control is having one hell of a rough week.
And…on rotation…the USS Abraham Lincoln has been out past 260 days…a Navy record for consecutive days at sea…with families going to reporters because they can’t get answers any other way.
Asked whether that deployment had gone on too long…the President said it hadn’t gone on nearly long enough.
So…the indefinite plan rests on rotation…and the rotation rests on crews we’re already running past the record book. That’s not a strategy. That’s a payday loan…with sailors as collateral.
And Now The Truly Excellent Part
You know who actually buys the oil coming through that strait?
Not us. We produce our own. Roughly 90% of the crude moving through Hormuz was heading to Asia. China is the biggest customer by a mile.
Which means…the United States has spent six months…an ammunition stockpile… its Pacific posture…and thirty-five cents on every gallon you buy…
…to fight for the reopening of China’s supply line.
I want to be fair. Keeping a nuclear weapon out of Iranian hands is a serious objective …and reasonable people support it. That argument deserves a hearing.
But…it is a much different argument from the one being made…which is that we’re winning…that we’re in control…and that we can do this forever.
We’re not…we aren’t…and we can’t.
So What Does “Winning” Even Look Like Now
Best case: Iran reopens the strait under some negotiated terms, oil settles, and everyone declares victory.
Barclays already priced that scenario. Their analyst put it plainly…a ceasefire isn’t a refund…and ceasefires end wars…without undoing them. Sixty-five-dollar oil isn’t coming back. It’s just not. Know that…now.
So the good ending is:
Higher prices permanently…a depleted arsenal…an exhausted fleet…a vacant Pacific… and an Iran…that now knows exactly how long…America can hold its breath.
That’s the win.
Sweet Jesus. I’d hate to see the loss.
#HoldFast
Back soon.
-Jack
Jack Hopkins
P.S. In March…dust-mop-head said the strait was other countries’ territory and none of our business. In August…he announced he’s annexing it.
At this pace…by Christmas we’ll have invaded it…sold it…and bought it back at a markup. The Art of the Deal…you know. ;)
P.P.S. Housekeeping…and then I’ll leave you alone.
On September 1st…a little less than two weeks out…the annual rate goes to $227.
If you’re already a paid member: do nothing.
Your rate is locked for as long as you stay. It never goes up. It renews at whatever you originally signed on at…yes, including the people still sitting on $99 from a long time ago. They’re grandfathered forever…and they should be. They were here early.
If you’re not a member yet…you’ve got until the 1st at the current rate. After that…the number is the number.
Sources
The Strait of Hormuz: Security Developments and Impacts on Oil, Gas, and Other Commodities — Congressional Research Service (ceasefire timeline, blockade details, June MOU)
Pentagon memo to defense companies; gas prices — CNN, Aug. 9, 2026
US says it can keep naval blockade on Iran ‘indefinitely’ — Reuters, Aug. 13, 2026
2026 Iran war — timeline and developments — Britannica (carrier withdrawal from Asia, UAE tanker attacks)
Barclays: “a ceasefire is not a refund” — AP via Barchart
Jack, you’re going to have to stop telling the truth. People aren’t used to it….
Sweet Jesus, indeed.