War? The Question No One in Power Wants Asked

Would a Major War Solve Trump’s Biggest Problems-All at Once?

War? The Question No One in Power Wants Asked

Would a Major War Solve Trump’s Biggest Problems-All at Once?

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #718: Monday, January 5th, 2026

There’s a reason this question makes people uncomfortable.

Not because it’s extreme.
But because once you ask it…you can’t unsee the incentives lining up.

And politics…real politics…is nothing but incentives wearing costumes.

The Mistake Most People Make

Most analysis starts with motive.

Would Trump want a war?

That’s a beginner’s question.

The question that actually predicts behavior is this:

Would a major war make Trump’s current problems easier to manage…structurally…financially…politically…and legally?

Because leaders don’t reach for war because they crave chaos.

They reach for it…when war becomes useful.

War Changes the Clock-Immediately

Every presidency runs on clocks.

Legal clocks.
Investigative clocks.
Media clocks.
Political clocks.

War doesn’t pause those clocks.

It destroys them.

Suddenly:

• Court proceedings feel “secondary”

• Oversight feels “dangerous”

• Transparency feels “irresponsible”

• Delay feels “patriotic”

Nothing has to be suspended formally.

Social permission does the work.

This is how emergency power actually functions…not through decrees…but through atmosphere.

The Quiet Function of War: Delay Without Saying Delay

One of war’s most valuable properties is that it buys time without announcing it.

Legal exposure doesn’t disappear.
Political weakness doesn’t vanish.

It just gets pushed out of focus.

Accountability becomes something we’ll “return to later.”
Later rarely comes.

The Financial Layer No One Talks About

War is sold as sacrifice.

In reality, it is one of the fastest wealth-transfer systems ever created.

Defense contracts
Logistics pipelines
Energy production
Cybersecurity
Surveillance
Infrastructure “rebuilding”

Money moves fast in war. Oversight…moves slowly.

Emergency authorizations.
No-bid contracts.
Classified spending.

If you’re positioned anywhere near this ecosystem…war isn’t uncertainty.

It’s liquidity.

And donor ecosystems…don’t exist in a vacuum.

War Reorders Loyalty

Here’s where things turn.

War doesn’t just change policy.
It changes social hierarchy.

During war:

• Dissent becomes suspect

• Neutrality becomes cowardice

• Criticism becomes destabilization

Loyalty is no longer about values.

It’s about alignment.

Once alignment replaces principle…institutions bend faster than people expect.

Why War Is Politically Useful Without “Winning”

The old myth is that war helps leaders only if it’s successful.

That’s false.

War helps leaders if it:

• Shifts attention

• Reframes narratives

• Centralizes authority

• Narrows acceptable debate

Victory is optional.

Control…is the objective.

The Midterms Don’t Need to Be Cancelled to Be Affected

This is the part almost no one wants to examine closely.

You don’t need to cancel elections to distort them.

You just need:

• Reduced turnout

• Narrowed access

• Heightened intimidation

• Administrative “security” barriers

War creates a justification framework…where all of that…sounds responsible.

Increased federal presence
Expanded surveillance
Restrictions near “sensitive infrastructure”
Law enforcement saturation at protests and polling sites

No one has to say “voter suppression.”

They just say:

“We can’t take risks right now.”

The Strongman Effect

War does something else-something psychological.

It reframes the leader as indispensable.

Legal scrutiny becomes “distraction.”
Criticism becomes “weakness.”
Opposition becomes “helping the enemy.”

In wartime…the leader becomes the symbol.

Symbols are harder to prosecute…than men.

The Pattern That Repeats Before Escalation

History shows a consistent pattern before leaders reach for external conflict:

• Internal legitimacy weakens

• Legal exposure increases

• Coalition fractures deepen

• Narrative control erodes

External conflict solves all four-temporarily.

Not morally.
Not sustainably.

But tactically.

And tactics are what matter…when the walls feel like they’re closing in.

Why Risk Stops Looking Like Risk

People assume leaders avoid war because it’s dangerous.

That’s not how decisions get made.

Leaders avoid war when the alternatives feel safer.

Ask yourself what the alternative looks like right now:

• Ongoing legal jeopardy

• Intensifying investigations

• Electoral vulnerability

• Fractured alliances

• Declining narrative control

Now…compare that to what war offers in the short term.

Suddenly…the gamble looks different.

War Doesn’t Have to Be “Big” to Be Effective

Here’s the final misconception.

War doesn’t need to look like World War II.

It can be:

• Regional escalation

• Proxy conflict

• “Limited” strikes

• Maritime enforcement

• Cyber retaliation

• Security operations that quietly expand

Each step is framed as measured.
Each step feels justified.
Each step deepens emergency footing.

By the time people argue about definitions…the machinery is already running.

The People Who Notice First Are Never in Charge

There’s a reason early warnings are dismissed.

The people who notice where things are heading…are rarely the ones holding power.

They’re the ones watching incentives align.
They’re the ones noticing language shifts before policy changes.
They’re the ones paying attention to what becomes convenient.

They’re told they’re overreacting.

They’re not.

They’re pattern-matching.

Wars don’t begin with declarations.

They begin when conflict becomes useful.

The Real Danger Isn’t War

The real danger is what war makes normal.

It normalizes:

• Silence

• Fear

• Deference

• Executive overreach

• Reduced civic participation

And once normalized…these things don’t disappear when the fighting stops.

They remain…as precedent.

Democracies don’t usually collapse because people stop voting.

They collapse because people are slowly conditioned to believe:

• Voting is risky

• Dissent is dangerous

• Stability requires obedience

• Questioning authority helps “the enemy”

War accelerates that conditioning faster than anything else.

That’s why this question matters now.

Not because war is inevitable.

But because pretending it’s unthinkable…is how it becomes possible.

BONUS: If War Serves Power-What, If Anything, Can We Do to Push the Other Direction?

This is the question people always ask quietly after reading something like this.

And it deserves a serious answer.

Not slogans.
Not fantasies.
Not “just vote harder.”

Here’s the uncomfortable truth first:

There is no single lever that “stops” a march toward war.
But there are pressure points that change the cost-benefit calculation…and history shows those matter.

1. Make War Politically Loud Before It’s Official

War thrives in ambiguity.

Once a conflict is framed as inevitable…necessary…or already underway…resistance collapses into symbolism.

The window that matters is before escalation is normalized.

What helps:

• Naming incentives early

• Talking about who benefits instead of who’s evil

• Forcing leaders to justify actions before the “security” frame hardens

Power hates premature scrutiny.
That’s where leverage exists.

2. Refuse the Emotional Shortcut

The fastest way to lose influence is to let fear drive behavior.

War depends on:

• Panic

• Urgency

• Moral compression (“act now or else”)

Calm, persistent pressure…is harder to dismiss than outrage.

History shows that leaders escalate more easily when opposition is:

• Reactive

• Fragmented

• Emotionally dysregulated

Staying grounded isn’t passive….it’s strategic.

3. Shift the Conversation From Patriotism to Cost

Power expects moral arguments.
It is far less prepared for cost accounting.

Costs that matter politically:

• Domestic tradeoffs

• Long-term financial commitments

• Opportunity costs

• Impact on civil liberties

• Spillover into elections and governance

War becomes less attractive…when it’s framed as expensive and destabilizing…not just dangerous.

4. Protect the Institutions That Slow Things Down

War accelerates when friction disappears.

The most important brakes are not personalities…they’re institutions:

• Courts

• Oversight bodies

• Journalists

• Inspectors general

• Career civil servants

Pressure that protects process…matters more than pressure aimed at optics.

The goal isn’t purity.
It’s delay…scrutiny…and daylight.

5. Resist the “Nothing Matters” Trap

This is the quiet failure mode.

People disengage not because they don’t care…but because they’re convinced nothing works.

That belief is incredibly useful to power.

History shows that:

• Sustained pressure works unevenly…but it does work

• Authoritarian drift accelerates…when people withdraw psychologically

• The absence of resistance…is often read as permission

Cynicism feels sophisticated.
It’s usually surrender…in disguise.

Final Thought

If war is tempting because it consolidates power…silences critics…and rearranges accountability…

Then the counter-move isn’t heroics.

It’s visibility, pressure, patience, and refusal to emotionally collapse.

Those aren’t dramatic tools.
But…they are the ones that consistently change outcomes at the margins.

And at moments like this…the margins…are where history bends.

#HoldFast

Back soon,

-Jack
Jack Hopkins

P.S.
The most important warning signs won’t look dramatic.

They’ll sound reasonable.
They’ll appeal to unity.
They’ll ask for patience.
They’ll promise to restore normalcy…later.

That’s always how it starts.