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HKJANE's avatar

Jack Hopkins has written what historians have been dreading someone would need to write. “Unconditional surrender” is not a synonym for strength. It is a commitment device — one that removes flexibility from diplomacy and transfers all pressure to the battlefield. Roosevelt could say it at Casablanca because the industrial base, the coalition, and the moral clarity existed to back it up. When you say it without those foundations, you do not frighten the enemy into folding faster. You convince them that surrender means annihilation — and a country that believes surrender is worse than death does not become cautious. It becomes the most dangerous thing in the history of warfare: a state with nothing left to preserve.

What should alarm every American reading Hopkins’s casualty estimates is not just the numbers. It is the gap. The gap between the phrase and the preparation. Between “unconditional surrender” and a Secretary of Defense who is “not concerned” that Russia is helping kill American troops. Between the language of total war and an administration that blocked its own terror warnings, concealed its own casualty exposure, and declared victory while the embassy was still burning. Democracies that have successfully fought total wars told their citizens the truth about the cost. This one is not. That gap — between maximalist rhetoric and concealed reality — is not a communications problem. It is where the dead will be counted.

Respectfully.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Jane, this is exceptionally well said.

You nailed the most important point...the real danger is not just the phrase “unconditional surrender.” It is the deadly GAP.... between language like that...and any honest public preparation for what it would actually REQUIRE.

Your line about a state that believes surrender is worse than death becoming “the most dangerous thing in the history of warfare”...yeah...that's especially strong. That gets right to the heart of why this kind of rhetoric is so incredibly reckless.

Your ending is devastating in the best way: that gap is where the dead will be counted. Exactly right.

Respect back to you!

-Jack

Rachel C's avatar

Trump, of all people, might have anticipated what emotions go to work when one’s existence is threatened with humiliation and indignity. This may be his twisted way of saying Compromise is worse than anything I will do to others. He barely knows others exist, and then only to serve him. I imagine Miller is putting him up to this, since his religion doesn’t believe in empathy. I hope when this is over, we can ask people from happy, stable countries to help us recover. Thanks, Jack.

#HoldFast. 👹

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Rachel...yes. I think you put your finger on something very important.

Trump does seem to understand humiliation and domination at a PRIMITIVE level...not as a human reality to be spared...but...as a weapon to be used.

That is part of what makes this so dangerous. He can recognize those emotions...just ENOUGH... to exploit them...without having the empathy or moral restraint to care what they unleash in other people.

Your line about compromise being worse...in his mind...than whatever he will do to OTHERS...feels exactly right. That is the psychology of someone who experiences backing down...as annihilation...and then projects that logic outward...onto the world.

I also think your broader point lands hard...we are being governed by people who do not treat empathy as a strength...but as an obstacle. That...poisons everything it touches.

And...yes...when this is over...this country is going to need recovery in ways most Americans still do not fully grasp. Moral recovery. Institutional recovery. Psychological recovery. Maybe even the humility to learn from healthier...steadier societies...that never normalized this kind of madness.

Thank you for this.

#HoldFast

-Jack

Susan Pethick's avatar

I'm angrier than ever that the Senate failed to rein this madman in with the War Powers Act. What is wrong with those people? We keep hearing that they confirm Trump's craziness behind closed doors, but when it comes time to show some spine, they fall in line like a bunch of lemmings.

My father survived a Kamikaze attack during WWII and he suffered from extreme anxiety the rest of his life. He also became very antiwar during Viet Nam, which cost him some business where we lived. I'm just glad he isn't here to see the country he loved being led by such a dangerous bunch of incompetents.

Thank you for all you do, Jack. I'll continue to restack your work as often as I can.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Susan...thank you for this...and...for sharing that about your father.

What he carried after surviving a Kamikaze attack is exactly the kind of reality too many people never think about when politicians and senators treat war like theater.

The damage does not end when the headlines fade. It lives in the nervous system..in families....in whole lifetimes. So your anger is more than justified.

And...yes...I think a lot of them know better. That is what makes it so maddening. Behind closed doors they whisper their alarm...then...in public they fold like a mortuary chair, rationalize, and seek to protect themselves.

It is cowardice...dressed up as caution.

Your father sounds like a man who saw more than enough of war to understand what it really costs...and it says a lot about him that he was willing to hold onto that truth...even when it cost him personally. I hate that he would recognize so much of this danger immediately. I do.

Thank you for restacking the work. That matters more than people realize.

-Jack

Susan Pethick's avatar

FWIW, our family name is Westmoreland. People just assumed he was pro war. Boy, were they surprised.

Andrew Campbell's avatar

Further to Jack’s point: Take a moment away from the chyron-fodder that Trump, Hegseth, Rubio and Caine are pumping out and read this article carefully. Think for a moment about the strategic midgetry of Trump and Co. arrayed against a regional power that has been in business for thousands of years.

Here is a sample. A link to the full article follows.

"The broader strategic picture therefore leads to a stark conclusion regarding the likely trajectory of such a war. Iran does not need to defeat the United States in conventional battle to achieve victory. Iranian strategy aims instead to transform the conflict into a long and widening confrontation that steadily drains the economic resources, political legitimacy, and regional stability upon which American power depends."

https://ggtvstreams.substack.com?utm_source=navbar&utm_medium=web

David R. MD's avatar

Thanks, and Absolutely.

Learning to be able to adaptively dissociate emotions in that manner is essential for those of us practicing clinically - including in psychiatry.

I estimate that it took me about ten years to be able to be sufficiently adept in that manner to avoid (in the vernacular that minimizes the issues) "taking it home with me", or being disrupted in being able to provide optimal therapy within a sessions.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Absolutely...and that kind of skill is hard-won.

Dr. David, what you’re so skillfully describing...is not coldness or detachment in the shallow sense. It’s discipline. It’s learning how to stay present..steady...and useful in the middle of other people’s pain...without letting it flood the room or follow you home in a way that breaks you down over time.

I'm coming to realize you likely have a great deal of time and experience in this realm.

And...ten years sounds believable to me. That is the part people outside clinical work rarely understand, this kind of emotional regulation is not automatic...just because someone is intelligent or compassionate. It is built slowly, through exposure...practice... self-awareness...and probably more internal effort than most people ever see.

Also, your point about being able to provide optimal therapy within sessions really lands.

That capacity is not just self-protection...it is part of the care itself.

Thank you for this lesson. Speaking for myself, the lesson...was received. I don't imagine I was the only one.

-Jack

Cherae Stone's avatar

It was the same with me in my massage practice, and not only with the hospital patients.

I had extra training so not only would I be able to remain calm and supportive in my demeanor, but I was terrified that I’d say something that would make matters worse for the folks who were trusting me with their most intimate personal struggles. Bartenders and hair dressers are not in a clinical setting and my “day jobs” were, which made it all the more important.

It’s a skill that has served me well.

#HoldFast

Cherae Stone's avatar

See reply to Jack below. Thank you for bringing up this important point.

Elisabeth's avatar

Very good, but I have 2 concerns: 1) our government is full of liars- how do we trust the casualty numbers? 2) Trump is famous for projection- I fear it is us who will be facing unconditional surrender after he squanders our lives, money & resources in this foolish endeavor to the point that one (or more) of our enemies bring the battle here.

Sher''s avatar

I have, also read Trump saying that Irn will likely look different on the map when this is over. Seriously. He said that. My blood runs cold. I don't trust him not to resort to the worst option known to the world. He is dangerously unstable. This Pentagon and POTUS arecwyvout of their depth... and Russia and China re circling the wagons to support Iran...but I'm preaching to the choir.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Sher'...you’re not overreacting. That kind of language should make anyone’s blood run cold.

Talking about a country “looking different on the map” is not normal, casual rhetoric. It suggests a level of destruction and instability that goes FAR beyond the sanitized language people are being fed.

And...in Trump’s tiny hands, that is especially concerning...because he is impulsive, ego-driven...and plainly capable of reaching for the most catastrophic option...if he thinks it makes him LOOK strong.

I agree with you: this Pentagon and this White House look badly out of their depth...and that becomes even more dangerous with Russia and China circling...calculating, and watching for openings. In terms of what Trump is up against...cognitively...it like a Kindergarten kid...becoming a member of the high school debate team.

That is how a reckless war aim...turns into a global disaster far faster than the public expects.

-Jack

Sher''s avatar

Thank you Jack. Helps me not think I'm losing me marbles... 😄. 💙

Cherae Stone's avatar

And then there’s Israel. . .

Mary E's avatar

Thank you, Jack.

a) Is there a normal timeframe to present ‘unconditional surrender’ and is the U.S. even close to that? Or, is that just 47 being 47?

b) from where does Israel get its ordnances? Do they manufacture their own?

c) I don’t recall any past President wearing a hat while saluting the return of military killed in combat. Your thoughts? Did 47’s advisors possibly miscommunicate with him?

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Mary E... thank you. These are great questions.

a) There is no normal quick timeframe for real “unconditional surrender.”

Historically, it means the other side has been beaten so badly...it has almost no leverage left. That is usually the end of a long, devastating war...not a near-term phase.

So no, we are not “close” to that in the historical sense. This sounds much more like 47 being 47 ...using maximalist language because it sounds strong...without grappling with what it would actually require.

b) Israel does make a lot of its own military equipment, including major weapons systems and technology. But...it also depends heavily on outside suppliers, especially the U.S....for key platforms and munitions.

So...the answer is: yes, partly homegrown...BUT... still heavily supported from outside, especially by us.

c) Your instinct is probably right. The point of those ceremonies is humility...solemnity... and respect.

Wearing a hat while saluting the return of the dead felt off to a lot of people for that reason.

Whether staff miscommunicated or he just did what he wanted...I think think we all know which one it likely was...I can’t prove. But ...it came across as one MORE example of Trump making even a sacred moment...feel like it still had to revolve around him.

He's a vile SOB.

-Jack

Mary E's avatar

LOL, your last sentence is far more milder than my sentiment. You’re a good guy, Jack.

Cherae Stone's avatar

No couth whatsoever.

Hell, I doubt he can even spell it.

Concerned Citizen's avatar

The Middle East factions and regimes have been fighting opponents for thousands of years. This unconditional surrender is not going to stop them from taking as many of their opponents down as possible, and more than likely will not follow rules of engagement either.

Pamela H's avatar

A needed commentary particularly after the showman’s remark. I’m wondering about the Russian intelligence role. Are the showmen also working with them? They seem to want to destroy our government - our military too? They want everything for their own aggrandizement, global wealth, endless resorts, etc. A weird extremism to create a perfect society à la Thiel, etc.

Jack Hopkins's avatar

Pamela...yes... think that’s the right frame. I do.

What’s already been reported is bad enough: Russia has reportedly given Iran intelligence on U.S. positions...and...Trump’s team has treated that as something to brush past...rather than a flashing red warning.

That alone tells you how unserious and dangerous this is.

And...on the bigger question...whether or not there is some formal deeper arrangement, these people are ABSOLUTELY behaving in ways that serve Russia’s interests.

They weaken institutions, glorify chaos...hollow out public trust...and treat the military, diplomacy....and even troop safety like props in a performance. America’s adversaries do not need anything better than that.

I also think you’re right about the mindset. This is not normal governance. It is a mix of ego, wealth obsession...impunity...and grandiose fantasies about remaking society...all while ordinary people absorb the damage.

That...is a very dangerous kind of extremism. Very dangerous indeed.

-Jack

Susan Pethick's avatar

At this point, I think that Thiel and his ilk are, like Scrooge, hoping to “reduce the surplus population.”

Emma's avatar

We should also not forget thiel's belief system regarding religion

Stephanie H's avatar

The Iranian president's response to trump's demand for unconditional surrender was "may he go to his his grave still holding onto that wish." It’s infuriating that the confederacy of incompetence surrounding him can't even do simple math: if Netanyahu couldn't bring Hamas to its knees after two years and many ten of thousands of bombs and artillery rounds, in a space less than a tenth the size of Iran, how to these fools think they can bring a country of 92 million people to unconditional surrender in a few weeks?

With Putin feeding the IRGC intelligence about US troops and movements, I fear that the upper level numbers of your predictions will come to pass.

Beverly Smiles ga's avatar

Friend Jack, might I just say, it’s working— throw out a war as a distraction. Maybe attack Cuba, too. We are proven to be predictably chasing the shiny object. No one talking about the corruption at the White House. Epstein. Doppelgänger Maxwell. Continued violence in Minnesota. Status of the law suits there. Right this moment in time— I care about the USA. Normally,l can care about all the people of the World. Ukraine. Gaza. Iran. Not now. And, what the hell happened to all the homeless people of DC, scooped up by the National Guard, and shipped to Utah?Current relevance / readership is important, I know. I would love it if all reporting independently on this platform, let main stream cover the war. That’s all they are good for. Thanks for listening.

Alexa Russell's avatar

Yesterday I received a nickel in change from a typical purchase from a typical store. A 1941 Jefferson s nickel. I am not a coin collector yet the timing is rare. All I thought about is the history this nickel has seen. The hands it has touched. The time that has passed. The time that is now and the time of our uncertain future. One can be very prepared or very unprepared yet with this current impending situation what matters?

Your loved ones. Awareness. Remaining calm, cool, collected. No more words. Silent actions. Thank you Jack. Steady as we go.

Judy Robinson's avatar

Why would anyone ever listen to anyone who suggested such a term? (Actually we do see how, but it should not happen.) What a cruel concept as the very name expresses, and only somebody who with no conscience, no respect whatsoever would even suggest such a term.

“Unconditional Surrender” is not a term that should ever come from or be suggested by our country. Our country is one that has always wanted to make the world a better place, not rob and control it. We must see that our country sticks to the standards we expect. How can we do that now?

Sue P's avatar

Add in the company commanders who are calling this a holy war. Not Iranian commanders. US commanders. Telling our troops.

Susan Pethick's avatar

I’ve been thinking about that, too. Perhaps when Hegseth was weeding out the “woke” senior commanders, he was making way for the Christian nationalist ones. Heaven help us.

Sue P's avatar

It means that those commanders won't care if our soldiers are put into harm's way.

Emma's avatar

Not that they won't care if they put them in harms way; they must put them in harms way for certain goals to play out.

Lori R's avatar

When I heard “unconditional surrender “ I shuddered. It will be a bloodbath.

Wayne A Ransier's avatar

How could this not go horribly wrong? Who's in charge?

Emma's avatar

Israel and SA are in charge, though I am guessing the saudis may live to regret that.