As I saw the "breaking news" of this deal the first thing I noticed was the confirmation only coming from "White House Sources". The alarm bells immediately sound bc we live in an America where that means nothing!
Basic world history 101 talks about strategic choke points. The Straits of Hormuz has always been a choke point. The strongarm tactics employed by the Trump military did nothing to open up this passage and were instrumental is closing it down. This administration relies entirely on their blustering rhetoric and the foolish belief that we will always remain a powerhouse in the world order. The damage that Trump and his regime have done has marginalized this country for generations to come.
Bottom line they need to look like they are "winning" because of the pain that he is causing economically, his sinking poll numbers, his stealing of tax payer dollars to shield his grift and protect his criminal supporters, and let's not forget to release the Epstein files. So tired of the bullshit coming out of the WH. # Holdfast
Kristine...you picked up on something real with the sourcing...when "largely negotiated" and "subject to finalization" are the OPERATIVE words...healthy skepticism is warranted... and you're right...that confirmation hasn't been independently nailed down yet.
The chokepoint history is solid too: Hormuz has always been exactly that kind of pressure point...which is part of why the leverage question matters so much here.
Drumpf has lost something he was told by everyone in his cabinet not to do but he said he was going ahead with his DOD kegsbreath to play toy sholdier with our troops. They blew thru all the patriot missal and anti middle reserves that take over a year to replace.he kept selling BB the same weapons. He removed some from S Korea and he has no plans. He is being run by BB and Putin. He also has been selling OUR country’s oil to other countries and we are seeing our prices go higher. He only cares about the grift. He keeps starting fires everywhere because of Epstein files. Congress has no balls. We are head for deep sh*t re oil and the effects on everything. Even things return to prior war it will take 6 -12 moths to have production returned to normal and our reserves in oil go back to where it should be. He removed sanctions from Russia and Iran on their oil. Putin is making millions as is Iran. He bent the knee to the china leader Xi. We are going to see things worse before they get better…
Teri..I can feel the frustration in EVERY line...and I want to engage with it honestly rather than just nod along...because you deserve that.
I certainly stand behind you with the war has been economically costly...prices have climbed...and the gap between the bravado and this hedged "deal" is REAL... and worth watching.
The energy-and-reserves recovery being slow even AFTER a conflict ends...is also a fair concern.
I feel a rant coming on and will do my best to keep this shorter as I am looking forward to the deep dive later tonight.
That said, I am past the ‘pissed as hell’ and kinda into the ‘I am so GD mad that I could, as my mom used to say, chew nails and spit tacks’ phase. I also stand with you on Randy’s JFC on a bicycle as I’m going to steal it, too. I laughed for several hours & it most certainly applies here!
So the orange mofo had several off ramps prior to this…. Did he deign to even consider any of them? Let’s be real. Of course not. So here we are.
He’s spent billions of OUR tax $$, weakened our ability to defend ourselves, pissed off all of our allies that then told us to pound sand when he asked for their help, has all but crashed the US economy causing prices to rise precipitously, will most likely, if he doesn’t back down, crash the world economy and and…… all for what?? A ‘deal’ that will leave us and the world worse off than we were before he started this ill fated war that he lost before the first bomb was even dropped that may (no proof here), just may have been started as a distraction from the Epstein files. That combined with his complete inability to distinguish manipulation from collegiality….
And now…. NOW he wants us to believe this is an effing ‘victory’?? Please. Can the super cheeseburgers please stand up and make their way to the WH posthaste, get the damn job done?????? We HAD an ironclad nuclear deal with Iran and it had teeth. This has all been such a waste and is so far beyond a fubar that I honestly don’t have words for it. Add to that all of the grift due to him & his family inserting themselves into the military industrial complex and it gets very murky, very fast…… day drinking anyone??
Now…. about that tack supply I have……
Thanks, Jack! You are a voice of sanity in a world that is quickly becoming anything but. 🙃
Deb...Ha!..."chew nails and spit tacks" is a keeper...and...please do steal Randy's JFC on a bicycle; some phrases are just public goods at this point.
I'll take "voice of sanity" gratefully...especially on a week that's testing everyone's supply of it.
You're channeling a lot of real frustration here...and the core of it lands: the off-ramps DID exist earlier...the economic pain is documented...AND...the gap between the maximalist rhetoric and this hedged "framework" is EXACTLY what the deep dive digs into.
Every crisis he starts is to deflect from Epstein files or some other thing he’s been caught grifting. It is as infuriating as all get out. We are in for a long hard time before things start going up for us…
Trump is determined to undermine the US in every way, shape or form to please his brother from another mother Vlad Putin and his cousin from inbreeding love Bibi Satanyahu. I think he is being paid by Putin and MBS to take the US down economically while he bolts with trillions of dollars and has a safe space to retreat to in Russia or Saudi Arabia. He needs to be prosecuted, stripped of his wealth, and thrown in a gulag somewhere. Or just drop him down in a grain elevator, cheaper and guaranteed fatal.
Oh, yeah. His hands are going all the time when he talks/lies. I've noticed that the bigger the lie, the hands move faster. I noticed that his hands form a familiar shape, too. Anybody remember the birthday card (letter) he gave to Epstein? The figure on the card appeared to be young girl in puberty, complete with the defined parts you'd see in a teenage girl. When he's talking with his hands, they form that same figure of a young girl, over and over again. Honestly, DJT's ability to out himself through non-verbal means is his kryptonite. You can always count on Trump's hands to out him.
Reading to the statement from the White House, you could tell they were basically surrendering and begging Iran for a way out with a way to save some face.
I’m looking for official comments from Iran before I believe this is over.
Todd...waiting for Iran's side before calling it settled is exactly the right instinct...a one-sided announcement...ESPECIALLY one still hedged with "subject to finalization," tells you only HALF the story.
Iran's foreign ministry has described it as a memorandum of UNDERSTANDING... with broader talks still to come...which is...itself...a sign that NOBODY should treat this as wrapped up.
Thanks for reading and for staying skeptical in the right way.
I’m wondering if Trump even comprehends the severity of his Iran blunder….he may be setting up the world for a depression that was totally avoidable. He will manipulate the markets with his pronouncements of ‘ceasefires and peace’ so he exits with $$$$ in his pocket. He will probably apply for reparations from his 1.776 Billion dollar slush fund….leaving the balance at zero and screwing his followers while they adore him. He must be defeated at the midterms! 🤬💯👍
Jack is correct that the language of the announcement is itself the evidence. Note the phrases: “largely negotiated.” “Subject to finalization.” “Details currently being discussed.” File those words. They are not the language of victory. They are the language of a framework that has not yet survived contact with the harder questions.
History offers a pattern worth recognizing here. Leaders who have genuinely resolved a strategic threat do not require thirty to sixty additional days to settle the central issue. The central issue — the nuclear pathway — was the stated justification for the entire confrontation. When that issue remains unresolved at the moment of the victory announcement, the announcement is not describing the end of the crisis. It is describing the end of the escalation. Those are not the same thing. The Soviet-Afghan withdrawal was announced as a strategic success. The underlying conditions that produced the conflict were not resolved. What followed was not stability.
Jack is correct that the Netanyahu signal matters. Allies who believe a threat has been genuinely neutralized do not express unease at the framework. They express relief. The absence of that relief is data.
The question worth sitting with is not whether this agreement prevents the next phase. It is whether the public will be able to recognize the next phase when it arrives — or whether the victory narrative will still be loud enough to obscure it.
I suggest that everyone who reads this look up the nine countries that have nuclear weapons and as you think about each of them, ask yourself whether Iran having nuclear weapons is any scarier than that group. I don’t wish Iran to have them, but if it wasn’t worth a war when each of those countries achieved them, then this didn’t rise to that magnitude either. Look at that list. There are definitely problematic countries there….
The "war" with Iran was lost in 2018 when Trump obliterated the Obama agreement and shredded the paperwork through a stump grinder. He cannot deal his way out of the oval office. His ignorance is real. His lack of curiosity is real. His blatant disregard for history and culture are real. In essence he is the Art of the Dealess. NBC gave him no favors when they propped the morally and financially bankrupt ignoramus up with his fake show. Now we are living, breathing, and existing in his humiliation. This nightmare never seems to end. Heather Cox Richardson said this week, it appears trump is digging himself in with no intention to leave. That was my opinion the day he oozed into the National Mall and pinkie swore his oath of office.
Trump can frame it as a “bigly win,” and he most definitely will do exactly that, but it is huge defeat for our country, not only economically, but the increased, and increasing power, that Iran will have going forward! It took him less than a year and half to completely wreck our standing as a leader amongst the world’s nations, destroy our historic alliance and wreck the economy that, while not perfect under Biden, was the ENVY of the world! Donald Trump is and always has been a loser, and he’s now made our country a “loser” too!
PS. If the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is what everyone is thinking will be a magic fix…gas prices will drop right away and life returns to normal…wake up! There are 2000 ships stuck in the area, 160 of which are oil tankers. The Strait has been mined by Iran, we decommissioned 4 of our minesweepers last September, the other 4 are stationed in Sasebo, Japan. We are going to be relying on the British Navy’s minesweeper, RFA Lyme Bay, currently docked in Gibraltar, to do this and it will take months to complete!
Trump lost this war the minute he ripped up Obama’s agreement and started unjust & illegal military action. Period.
Bingo, Sher'.
-Jack
As I saw the "breaking news" of this deal the first thing I noticed was the confirmation only coming from "White House Sources". The alarm bells immediately sound bc we live in an America where that means nothing!
Basic world history 101 talks about strategic choke points. The Straits of Hormuz has always been a choke point. The strongarm tactics employed by the Trump military did nothing to open up this passage and were instrumental is closing it down. This administration relies entirely on their blustering rhetoric and the foolish belief that we will always remain a powerhouse in the world order. The damage that Trump and his regime have done has marginalized this country for generations to come.
Bottom line they need to look like they are "winning" because of the pain that he is causing economically, his sinking poll numbers, his stealing of tax payer dollars to shield his grift and protect his criminal supporters, and let's not forget to release the Epstein files. So tired of the bullshit coming out of the WH. # Holdfast
Kristine...you picked up on something real with the sourcing...when "largely negotiated" and "subject to finalization" are the OPERATIVE words...healthy skepticism is warranted... and you're right...that confirmation hasn't been independently nailed down yet.
The chokepoint history is solid too: Hormuz has always been exactly that kind of pressure point...which is part of why the leverage question matters so much here.
Thanks for reading so closely!
#HoldFast
-Jack
Another nothingburger of an announcement.
Rae...that's exactly what it is.
-Jack
It’s always a nothingburger.. (love the nothingburger)
A nothingburger with fries and a Diet Coke.
🤣 and LOTS of KETCHUP!!
Drumpf has lost something he was told by everyone in his cabinet not to do but he said he was going ahead with his DOD kegsbreath to play toy sholdier with our troops. They blew thru all the patriot missal and anti middle reserves that take over a year to replace.he kept selling BB the same weapons. He removed some from S Korea and he has no plans. He is being run by BB and Putin. He also has been selling OUR country’s oil to other countries and we are seeing our prices go higher. He only cares about the grift. He keeps starting fires everywhere because of Epstein files. Congress has no balls. We are head for deep sh*t re oil and the effects on everything. Even things return to prior war it will take 6 -12 moths to have production returned to normal and our reserves in oil go back to where it should be. He removed sanctions from Russia and Iran on their oil. Putin is making millions as is Iran. He bent the knee to the china leader Xi. We are going to see things worse before they get better…
#HOLDFAST
Teri
Teri..I can feel the frustration in EVERY line...and I want to engage with it honestly rather than just nod along...because you deserve that.
I certainly stand behind you with the war has been economically costly...prices have climbed...and the gap between the bravado and this hedged "deal" is REAL... and worth watching.
The energy-and-reserves recovery being slow even AFTER a conflict ends...is also a fair concern.
Thanks for reading and for caring this much!
#HoldFast
-Jack
Oh, Jack……
I feel a rant coming on and will do my best to keep this shorter as I am looking forward to the deep dive later tonight.
That said, I am past the ‘pissed as hell’ and kinda into the ‘I am so GD mad that I could, as my mom used to say, chew nails and spit tacks’ phase. I also stand with you on Randy’s JFC on a bicycle as I’m going to steal it, too. I laughed for several hours & it most certainly applies here!
So the orange mofo had several off ramps prior to this…. Did he deign to even consider any of them? Let’s be real. Of course not. So here we are.
He’s spent billions of OUR tax $$, weakened our ability to defend ourselves, pissed off all of our allies that then told us to pound sand when he asked for their help, has all but crashed the US economy causing prices to rise precipitously, will most likely, if he doesn’t back down, crash the world economy and and…… all for what?? A ‘deal’ that will leave us and the world worse off than we were before he started this ill fated war that he lost before the first bomb was even dropped that may (no proof here), just may have been started as a distraction from the Epstein files. That combined with his complete inability to distinguish manipulation from collegiality….
And now…. NOW he wants us to believe this is an effing ‘victory’?? Please. Can the super cheeseburgers please stand up and make their way to the WH posthaste, get the damn job done?????? We HAD an ironclad nuclear deal with Iran and it had teeth. This has all been such a waste and is so far beyond a fubar that I honestly don’t have words for it. Add to that all of the grift due to him & his family inserting themselves into the military industrial complex and it gets very murky, very fast…… day drinking anyone??
Now…. about that tack supply I have……
Thanks, Jack! You are a voice of sanity in a world that is quickly becoming anything but. 🙃
Deb...Ha!..."chew nails and spit tacks" is a keeper...and...please do steal Randy's JFC on a bicycle; some phrases are just public goods at this point.
I'll take "voice of sanity" gratefully...especially on a week that's testing everyone's supply of it.
You're channeling a lot of real frustration here...and the core of it lands: the off-ramps DID exist earlier...the economic pain is documented...AND...the gap between the maximalist rhetoric and this hedged "framework" is EXACTLY what the deep dive digs into.
The exhaustion underneath it all? Fully shared.
Save some of that energy for tonight's read!
#HoldFast
-Jack
Every crisis he starts is to deflect from Epstein files or some other thing he’s been caught grifting. It is as infuriating as all get out. We are in for a long hard time before things start going up for us…
Trump is determined to undermine the US in every way, shape or form to please his brother from another mother Vlad Putin and his cousin from inbreeding love Bibi Satanyahu. I think he is being paid by Putin and MBS to take the US down economically while he bolts with trillions of dollars and has a safe space to retreat to in Russia or Saudi Arabia. He needs to be prosecuted, stripped of his wealth, and thrown in a gulag somewhere. Or just drop him down in a grain elevator, cheaper and guaranteed fatal.
If his lips are moving, or his fingers are flying, he's lying.
Fact, Roberta.
-Jack
His hands are very animated when he’s lying.
That is a true tell!
Oh, yeah. His hands are going all the time when he talks/lies. I've noticed that the bigger the lie, the hands move faster. I noticed that his hands form a familiar shape, too. Anybody remember the birthday card (letter) he gave to Epstein? The figure on the card appeared to be young girl in puberty, complete with the defined parts you'd see in a teenage girl. When he's talking with his hands, they form that same figure of a young girl, over and over again. Honestly, DJT's ability to out himself through non-verbal means is his kryptonite. You can always count on Trump's hands to out him.
Reading to the statement from the White House, you could tell they were basically surrendering and begging Iran for a way out with a way to save some face.
I’m looking for official comments from Iran before I believe this is over.
Todd...waiting for Iran's side before calling it settled is exactly the right instinct...a one-sided announcement...ESPECIALLY one still hedged with "subject to finalization," tells you only HALF the story.
Iran's foreign ministry has described it as a memorandum of UNDERSTANDING... with broader talks still to come...which is...itself...a sign that NOBODY should treat this as wrapped up.
Thanks for reading and for staying skeptical in the right way.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Hard to believe we have to check Iran’s response since we can’t trust any info out of our government. Can you believe that?! 😡
I’m wondering if Trump even comprehends the severity of his Iran blunder….he may be setting up the world for a depression that was totally avoidable. He will manipulate the markets with his pronouncements of ‘ceasefires and peace’ so he exits with $$$$ in his pocket. He will probably apply for reparations from his 1.776 Billion dollar slush fund….leaving the balance at zero and screwing his followers while they adore him. He must be defeated at the midterms! 🤬💯👍
Jack is correct that the language of the announcement is itself the evidence. Note the phrases: “largely negotiated.” “Subject to finalization.” “Details currently being discussed.” File those words. They are not the language of victory. They are the language of a framework that has not yet survived contact with the harder questions.
History offers a pattern worth recognizing here. Leaders who have genuinely resolved a strategic threat do not require thirty to sixty additional days to settle the central issue. The central issue — the nuclear pathway — was the stated justification for the entire confrontation. When that issue remains unresolved at the moment of the victory announcement, the announcement is not describing the end of the crisis. It is describing the end of the escalation. Those are not the same thing. The Soviet-Afghan withdrawal was announced as a strategic success. The underlying conditions that produced the conflict were not resolved. What followed was not stability.
Jack is correct that the Netanyahu signal matters. Allies who believe a threat has been genuinely neutralized do not express unease at the framework. They express relief. The absence of that relief is data.
The question worth sitting with is not whether this agreement prevents the next phase. It is whether the public will be able to recognize the next phase when it arrives — or whether the victory narrative will still be loud enough to obscure it.
#HOLDFAST
Nebulous terms for a nebulous MOU. Nothing iron clad because he can’t get off Truth Social long enough to actually negotiate anything.
I suggest that everyone who reads this look up the nine countries that have nuclear weapons and as you think about each of them, ask yourself whether Iran having nuclear weapons is any scarier than that group. I don’t wish Iran to have them, but if it wasn’t worth a war when each of those countries achieved them, then this didn’t rise to that magnitude either. Look at that list. There are definitely problematic countries there….
This sounds like "deja vu, all over again."
The "war" with Iran was lost in 2018 when Trump obliterated the Obama agreement and shredded the paperwork through a stump grinder. He cannot deal his way out of the oval office. His ignorance is real. His lack of curiosity is real. His blatant disregard for history and culture are real. In essence he is the Art of the Dealess. NBC gave him no favors when they propped the morally and financially bankrupt ignoramus up with his fake show. Now we are living, breathing, and existing in his humiliation. This nightmare never seems to end. Heather Cox Richardson said this week, it appears trump is digging himself in with no intention to leave. That was my opinion the day he oozed into the National Mall and pinkie swore his oath of office.
#HoldFast
He definitely didn’t win. Everything he says is a lie or a way to buy time out of the catastrophe he has created.
Iran was even mocking him on social media saying that he has not negotiated anything!
This was posted in Jim Stewartson’s recent post:
Trump can frame it as a “bigly win,” and he most definitely will do exactly that, but it is huge defeat for our country, not only economically, but the increased, and increasing power, that Iran will have going forward! It took him less than a year and half to completely wreck our standing as a leader amongst the world’s nations, destroy our historic alliance and wreck the economy that, while not perfect under Biden, was the ENVY of the world! Donald Trump is and always has been a loser, and he’s now made our country a “loser” too!
PS. If the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is what everyone is thinking will be a magic fix…gas prices will drop right away and life returns to normal…wake up! There are 2000 ships stuck in the area, 160 of which are oil tankers. The Strait has been mined by Iran, we decommissioned 4 of our minesweepers last September, the other 4 are stationed in Sasebo, Japan. We are going to be relying on the British Navy’s minesweeper, RFA Lyme Bay, currently docked in Gibraltar, to do this and it will take months to complete!