Three-Step Playbook You Can Use for Predicting Someone's Next Move- Even People Like Trump, Hegseth, and Patel

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #313

I thought I’d give you a glimpse inside my mind when I’m writing about someone in particular ( like Trump, for example) and providing any kind of analysis or making predictions about their future behavior.

It’s certainly not limited to what I write about below, but this will give you an idea of the core and starting place in my mind, especially when someone new…like Pete Hegseth or Kash Patel…shows up as part of the new cast of characters in the Trump-themed shitshow. I don’t have years of having observed and analyzed them in a mental “memory-hole.”

Here are the top three approaches I use (at least initially) for forecasting an individual’s future decision: (and this is not about always being 100% accurate. This is about getting much closer, on average, when predicting the behavior in others, than you would otherwise.)

*Historical‐Behavior Modeling

“Past is prologue.” Analyze their track record…what choices they’ve made in similar situations, how consistently they follow habits or routines.

Use statistical or machine‐learning models trained on their past decisions (e.g. logistic regression, random forests) to estimate the probability they’ll choose A vs. B.

Building a predictive model around past choices can illuminate future actions…even for high‐profile figures.

Take Richard Nixon, for example.

Long before Watergate, Nixon’s political career was dotted with instances of secret recordings…back‐channel negotiations…and aggressive tactics against opponents (think the “kitchen debate” wiretaps in 1959).

A behavioral model that weighted these episodes (illegal wiretapping in local campaigns, secret fundraisers, and repeated readiness to deploy investigative power) would have flagged a high probability that Nixon might authorize more extreme measures (like the break­-in at the DNC) to secure political advantage.

By quantifying his consistency in resorting to covert operations…analysts could have assigned a nontrivial likelihood that Nixon would again bypass constitutional norms to “win at all costs.”

Similarly, historical modeling can apply to domestic abusers whose patterns of escalation follow a grim trajectory.

In many documented cases, an abusive spouse’s early signs…verbal aggression when stressed…controlling behavior over finances…and isolated incidents of pushing or shoving…predict later, more severe violence.

A data‐driven system noting each police call, each restraining order filing, and the intervals between attacks could have pinpointed individuals at highest risk of lethal escalation.

Law enforcement agencies using such models today can intervene proactively…for example by mandating counseling or monitoring…before the next tragic incident occurs.

*Psychological Profiling

Assess stable traits (Big Five personality, risk tolerance, moral foundations) and momentary states (mood, stress level).

**See more about the Big Five, or the Five-Factor Model, at the end.

Leverage frameworks like the Theory of Planned Behavior (intentions driven by attitudes, norms, and perceived control) to map how their beliefs and values shape intended actions. **See more below about the Theory of Planned Behavior, at the end.

Assessing stable personality traits and momentary states can uncover dangerous propensities.

Consider serial killer, Ted Bundy:

His charm and calculated social graces masked a textbook profile of narcissistic and antisocial personality disorder—traits like lack of empathy, superficial charm, and grandiosity.

Criminal profilers who had integrated Bundy’s early reports of petty theft, voyeurism, and animal cruelty into a structured trait‐based framework would have seen a classic escalation toward more violent offenses.

His interviews and college disciplinary files alone contained enough data to assign high scores on measures of callousness and manipulativeness, predicting the eventual leap to serial murder.

In the realm of politicians, President Richard Nixon again provides an instructive case.

Personality inventories administered (hypothetically) during his early career…showing high neuroticism, strong in‐group loyalty, and an inflexible response to criticism—would have signaled intense defensiveness under threat.

Profilers using the Theory of Planned Behavior could have mapped how his attitudes toward leaks (“the press is an enemy”) and subjective norms within his inner circle (“silence at all costs”) drove intentions to subvert transparency.

By linking his moral foundations (loyalty over fairness) with situational stressors…they might have anticipated his readiness to undermine legal channels.

*Contextual & Situational Analysis

Examine the immediate environment: incentives, social pressures, framing of options, available information, time constraints.

Apply scenario‐based or game‐theoretic models to see how altering stakes, norms, or payoff structures will shift their optimal choice.

Decisions rarely happen in a vacuum…environmental factors and incentive structures heavily sway choices.

A Quick Look at BTK Killer, Dennis Rader:

He remained dormant for years until he perceived diminishing media attention on his crimes.

Profilers who tracked local news cycles and Rader’s taunting letters to police could have spotted that heightened publicity functioned as a trigger…making a new string of murders likely whenever coverage waned.

By modeling the interaction of his personal need for recognition with media outlet behavior…they might have forecasted the timing of his next killing spree.

Likewise, in domestic violence cases…the situational analysis of an abusive spouse often reveals predictability. For instance, many perpetrators escalate physical abuse in direct response to job loss or financial strain.

By mapping household stress events…like eviction notices or foreclosure proceedings…against past violence incidents…social services could anticipate windows of acute risk.

Interventions (temporary housing, financial counseling) timed to these situational “flashpoints” can thus blunt the likelihood that anger and desperation lead to more severe acts.

Okay…that may be much more than you wanted to know, or…maybe it left you craving even more. Whatever the case, this one is worth hanging on to, and even perhaps printing off and referring back to later.

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday afternoon and evening!

Best,

Jack

Okay, for those who want to geek out a little and dive a bit deeper into the Big Five Model and/or the Theory of Planned Behavior….here you go:

**The Big Five

If you are interested in learning more about the Big Five or Five-Factor Model, you might find this to be something that gives you a surface level answer to “What the hell is it?!”

The Big Five (also called the Five-Factor Model) is the dominant framework in personality psychology. It proposes that five broad…relatively independent dimensions can summarize most individual differences in personality:

Openness to Experience:

High scorers: Curious, imaginative, open-minded, enjoy art and novelty.

Low scorers: Practical, conventional, prefer routine and familiar things.

Conscientiousness:

High scorers: Organized, disciplined, dependable, goal-directed.

Low scorers: Spontaneous, flexible (sometimes disorganized), may struggle with follow-through.

Extraversion:

High scorers: Outgoing, energetic, talkative, seek social stimulation.

Low scorers (introverts): Reserved, quiet, prefer solitary activities or small groups.

Agreeableness:

High scorers: Compassionate, cooperative, eager to help…trusting.

Low scorers: Competitive, critical…skeptical of others’ motives.

Neuroticism:

High scorers: Prone to anxiety, mood swings…self-doubt, stress sensitivity.

Low scorers: Calm, resilient, emotionally steady under pressure.

Origins & Measurement

Origins: Based on lexical studies (identifying trait words in language) and decades of factor analyses…first coalescing in the late 20th century.

Why It Matters

Predictive Power: Conscientiousness predicts job performance and academic success; Neuroticism forecasts mental‐health risk; Extraversion correlates with social and leadership outcomes.

Stability & Change: While traits are relatively stable across adulthood…life events (career, relationships) can nudge scores over time. (Traumatic experiences in life thirty-years ago seem to have nudged mine. Not a lot..but it’s noticeable, when looking at the timeline.)

Applications: Used in clinical settings…organizational hiring and development… research on well-being…and understanding interpersonal compatibility.

In essence, the Big Five provides a common language for describing and comparing personalities, capturing how we differ in how we think…feel…and behave.

**Theory of Planned Behavior

The Theory of Planned Behavior is a social-psychological model that explains how people come to perform specific behaviors.

It builds on the earlier Theory of Reasoned Action by adding a third determinant: perceived control. It proposes that behavioral intent…rather than direct attitude alone…drives our actions.

Core Constructs

1. Attitude Toward the Behavior:
   – Your personal evaluation of performing the behavior (positive or negative).
   – Formed by beliefs about the likely outcomes (e.g. “Exercising will make me healthier” → positive attitude).

2. Subjective Norms:
   – Perceived social pressure to perform or not perform the behavior.
   – Shaped by beliefs about what important others think you should do (family, friends, peers).

3. Perceived Behavioral Control:
   – Your sense of how easy or difficult the behavior will be, akin to self-efficacy.
   – Influenced by factors that facilitate or impede action (time, resources, skills).

These three feed into a person’s behavioral intention…which is the most immediate predictor of actual behavior. When perceived control closely matches real control… intention often translates into action.

*Intention = readiness to act.

*Perceived control can also have a direct effect on behavior (e.g. if you believe you have high control, you may act even without strong intention).

Real-World Example

Quitting Smoking:

Attitude: Belief that quitting will improve health and save money.

Subjective Norms: Friends and family urge you to quit; social media campaigns reinforce it.

Perceived Behavioral Control: Confidence you can resist cravings, access to cessation aids.

A person who sees quitting as beneficial, feels supported, and believes they can do it is far more likely to form a strong intention—and actually stop smoking. Remove one of the three…and things weaken…considerably.

In short, the Theory of Planned Behavior offers a clear framework for understanding why people decide to do things…and what levers (attitudes, norms, control) you can pull if you want to predict or change their behavior.