The Standoff: Blue Governors vs. Trump’s Troops
Who commands America’s streets…and how this clash of law…optics…and nerve ends
The Standoff: Blue Governors vs. Trump’s Troops
Who commands America’s streets…and how this clash of law…optics…and nerve ends
The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #517: Sunday, September 1st, 2025.
This isn’t a policy debate. It’s a power test.
The President says: “Your cities are chaos. I’ll fix it.”
Blue governors say: “Not with my Guard. Not in my streets. Not like that.”
That’s the standoff.
Not speeches. Levers.
Not opinions. Commands.
I’m going to show you who has which lever…how they’ll pull them…and the two or three ways this ends.
Read fast. Decisions won’t wait.
The Only Five Things That Matter
1) Troops vs. Agents.
Active-duty troops are the headline. Federal agents are the reality. Presidents can flood cities with DOJ/DHS/USMS/ATF/FBI without a governor’s permission. It looks like troops on TV. It isn’t. It’s the default move.
2) Title 32 vs. Title 10.
Your National Guard lives in Title 32 (governor’s command). Flip it to Title 10 (president’s command) and the feds hold the leash. This is the governor’s red line: keep the Guard home.
3) D.C. is a cheat code.
The D.C. Guard answers to the President. Full stop. That’s why the capital is the “poster child.” Don’t confuse that with authority over states. Different animal.
4) The Insurrection Act.
Break-glass statute. Lets presidents deploy troops or federalize state Guard without consent in declared emergencies. Use it loosely and you get court fights and backlash. Use it narrowly and you still get court fights…but maybe a win. It’s the nuclear lever.
5) Optics decide tempo.
Data will matter in court. Pictures will matter on TV. Both sides will stage their strongest frames every 24 hours.
Trump’s Playbook (Short…Brutal…Effective)
Poster City:
Flood D.C., claim big drops…hold joint podiums…say “Look…cooperation works.” Then dare blue states to copy.
Agents First:
Put more federal jackets on more corners. Warrants…fugitive grabs…gun squads… “federal property” patrols. Nightly arrest stats.
Cross-State Guard:
Try to bring in other states’ Guard under task-force cover. Call it “help,” not “federalization.”
Break Glass:
If violence spikes…or is framed that way…reach for Insurrection Act Lite: tightly worded orders around “federal functions” and “civil disorder.” Announce…deploy…dare governors to sue.
Goal: Sheriff on TV.
Scene: uniforms…seizures…perp walks.
Script: “We restored order where they failed.”
Governors’ Counter (Keep Command. Deny the Frame.)
Lock Title 32.
Keep your Guard under your orders. Full stop.
Spin Up State Defense Forces.
They can’t be federalized. Use them for perimeters…logistics…lights…comms…recovery. Not arrests…presence.
Starve the Task Forces.
No voluntary deputizing. No ride-alongs without warrants. No local databases on a silver platter.
Sue Fast. File within hours.
Argue misuse of statute…lack of emergency…Tenth Amendment boundaries.
Publish the Numbers. Every week.
Trend lines. Seasonal spikes. Clear graphs. You’re deflating the “emergency” claim before the judge even asks.
Policing on Your Terms.
Visible safety work…traffic posts…lights…cameras…foot beats…without handing over your chain of command.
Goal: Constitutional Adult in the Room.
Scene: steady streets…clean data…visible state control.
Script: “We keep people safe…without turning cities into campaign sets.”
Four Likely Paths (Pick Your Square on the Board)
1) Poster Strategy Spreads (Patchwork).
Some blue mayors cut limited deals with federal agents (not troops) to make a dent in hot spots and share the credit. Others refuse and litigate. Result: mixed map…not a sweep.
2) Agents Everywhere (Legend 2.0).
The White House floods big metros with federal agents…not soldiers. It’s legal…fast… and telegenic. Governors gripe…withhold help…and fight margins in court. This is the most likely track.
3) Red Guard in Blue City (Title 32 End-Run).
Friendly red governors ship their Guard to “assist” in blue jurisdictions. Blue states sue: no consent…no entry. Courts decide whether this game is even allowed. Fireworks.
4) Insurrection Act Lite (Narrow Orders).
Carefully worded federalization around “protecting federal property” and “restoring order.” Immediate lawsuits. Judges ask: Where’s the real emergency? Where’s the limit?
What to Watch (Tell-Tales for Escalation)
A presidential proclamation to disperse. That’s your Insurrection Act pre-roll.
OLC language about interstate Guard missions. That’s the end-run warming up.
Unfamiliar patches on uniforms in your city. Call a lawyer and a reporter.
Daily feds-only stats from DOJ/DHS. That’s Agents-First in motion.
Emergency sessions on Insurrection Act reform. The Hill smells smoke.
The Risks (Both Sides Can Lose the Room)
Overreach sinks the Sheriff.
If federal visuals look like occupation…or if the “emergency” label doesn’t match the data…judges and suburbs recoil.
Obstruction sinks the Adult.
If blue leaders look performative while neighborhoods burn…they forfeit the middle and hand the White House the microphone.
The smart path is boring: police well…sue hard…speak plain.
Your 60-Second Field Test (Use It Tonight)
When you see uniforms on your screen, ask:
Who’s in charge? Governor…President…or an agency chief?
Which lane? Title 32…Title 10…Insurrection Act…or federal agents?
What mission…on paper? Federal property…warrants…riot control…immigration… or a vague “crime” catch-all?
If those answers aren’t clear…you’re watching stagecraft….not statecraft.
FINALLY
This won’t look like a civil-war movie. It’ll look like patchwork deals…federal jackets… fast lawsuits…and daily press hits.
D.C. will keep starring as the model. Blue states will keep their Guard close…spin up state forces…and head to court on the hour. The White House will claim order. Governors will claim law. Judges will draw lines.
Order and liberty aren’t enemies.
They just require separate chains of command…clear statutes…and leaders disciplined enough to prefer proof over posture.
Get that…and this ends messy but manageable.
Miss it…and we teach future presidents…of any party…that theater beats law.
Choose wisely.
I’ll be back soon….always.
Warmly,
-Jack
This is going to get ugly before it all ends. The people are not happy with the feds rolling in be it ice or or FBI and especially other states Guard. Thanks for all your explanations.
Thank you for all this. Very readable, blunt, actionable. I’ll be less dumbfounded watching this unfold, and better prepared to DO something in support of whoever is on the spot. Thanks, Jack!
(I also want to thank you for your reassuring endings..you’ll be back soon, see you soon, etc. It’s heartwarming, you’re not going to abandon us and are someone we can rely on. It does help, thank you..)