The Russian Invasion You Don’t See

What Putin couldn’t win with tanks...he won with Trump’s ego...and Washington’s silence. (And what are the odds of the U.S.A. surviving this?)

The Russian Invasion You Don’t See

What Putin couldn’t win with tanks…he won with Trump’s ego…and Washington’s silence. (And what are the odds of the U.S.A. surviving this?)

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #494: Tuesday, August 19th, 2025.

If you’re waiting for Russian tanks to roll down Main Street before you admit Putin is attacking America…congratulations…you’re already ten years too late.

The invasion isn’t coming with missiles. It’s not tanks on Pennsylvania Avenue. It’s not Spetsnaz storming the beaches of California. Putin doesn’t have to risk a single soldier’s life. He doesn’t even need to launch a nuke.

Because he’s already here.

He’s not wearing a uniform. He’s wearing a suit…or holding an iPhone…or running an anonymous account online. He’s sitting inside corporate boardrooms…law firms… lobbying shops…think tanks…and social media companies.

He’s here every time you see a headline that feels engineered to enrage you.

He’s here every time you see politicians on U.S. soil who sound more like Moscow radio than American patriots.

He’s here every time dirty rubles turn into “campaign donations” that magically align with American policy bending toward the Kremlin.

That’s the part nobody wants to admit: the invasion has already succeeded in its opening phase.

And while you were waiting for something cinematic..jets in the sky…bombs on buildings...Putin went to work on the quiet business of corrosion. Rotting a superpower from the inside out.

Why You Feel This In Your Bones

Let’s strip it down. You’ve felt it. I know you have. That crawling…gnawing sense that something much bigger than “politics as usual” is happening in this country.

You turn on the news and it doesn’t add up. Every institution feels weaker. Every issue feels like a wedge. Every conversation feels like a landmine.

That’s not random. That’s not just “culture clash.” That’s design.

The truth is, Americans are trained to look outward for enemies. Tanks…planes… soldiers…missile silos. We expect our enemies to wear uniforms and march in parades. We expect fireworks…explosions…giant red arrows on the map.

But what happens when the battlefield isn’t on the horizon…it’s in your head?

Here’s what you’re sensing: the fog of foreign power infiltrating your conversations, your news feeds, your politics. It’s the pulse of Moscow deliberately widening cracks in America’s foundation.

And the worst part? Most of our leaders still talk about it like it’s a minor nuisance.

Remember 2021–2023? Democrats had the trifecta…White House…Senate…House. That was the moment to go on offense. To drain the oligarch pipelines. To slam the door shut on shell companies laundering dirty cash. To force transparency into our elections.

They didn’t.

They treated it like a “messaging issue.” Like a talking point. They thought they could outspin it. They thought the storm would pass.

Instead…they whistled past the graveyard. And while they did…Putin’s influence machine learned…adapted…and expanded. It got smarter. It got richer. It dug in deeper.

And that’s why you feel it in your bones…because the invasion isn’t looming…it’s happening.

The Mechanics of the Silent Invasion

This is the part most Americans miss. They’re looking for war in the wrong places.

A. The New Form of War

War in the 21st century is cheaper…faster…and dirtier.

Putin doesn’t need tanks. He needs trolls. He doesn’t need nukes. He needs kompromat. He doesn’t need to invade New York or L.A. He needs to own just enough politicians to stall Congress…fracture alliances…and weaken America from within.

Think about it:

A troll farm in St. Petersburg can spend $1,000 creating fake accounts…memes…and videos that ignite a political wildfire in Des Moines. That wildfire forces real Americans into real fights that cost billions in productivity…security…and trust.

A hack into one pipeline or one utility can cost America more in days than Russia spends on defense in months.

This is asymmetric war. They spend pennies. We bleed billions.

Every screaming match you see at a school board meeting? Every friend unfriended over a conspiracy theory? That’s not random chaos. That’s a strategy. A pressure point.

This is how you invade without a single soldier leaving home soil.

B. Digital Colonization

Let’s talk about the colonization of your mind.

2016 wasn’t a one-off. It was the trial run. A test of concept. When it worked beyond their wildest dreams…the Kremlin doubled down.

Facebook and X (Twitter):

Russian-linked accounts didn’t just troll…they amplified. They poured gasoline on every raw nerve: race…guns…religion…policing…vaccines. They didn’t invent the issues. They magnified them.

TikTok & YouTube:

Here’s the genius. They don’t even need to directly create the content anymore. Algorithms do the job for them. Outrage gets clicks. Division gets views. Once the system was built…the Russians just had to feed it sparks.

AI-generated disinformation:

As of 2025….AI generates deepfake videos…fake testimonials…fake headlines…fake witnesses. Content so slick…so convincing…it bypasses skepticism and plunges straight into your bloodstream.

The “fake news” Trump was/is always talking about…was always coming from Russia.

Here’s the key: they don’t need Americans to support Russia. They just need Americans to stop supporting each other.

That’s what you’re watching. Not propaganda. Colonization. A digital takeover of trust itself.

C. Buying America’s Soul

Always follow the money.

Russian oligarchs aren’t stupid. They don’t buy American assets to get rich…they’re already rich. They buy them because money is power…and power is leverage.

NYC & Miami real estate:

Shell companies scoop up entire blocks. Try tracing ownership…you’ll find Cyprus, the Caymans…Dubai. A labyrinth designed to hide the Kremlin’s fingerprints.

Vegas casinos & Trump properties:

Casinos are laundromats with neon lights. Trump properties? Same thing…just with chandeliers.

PACs & lobbying firms:

Legal corruption. Millions funneled into ads…think tanks…and campaigns that “just happen” to tilt American policy Moscow’s way.

Remember the NRA scandal? Oligarch cash…laundered through intermediaries… pouring into the bloodstream of American politics.

Remember Trump’s bankruptcies… magically bailed out by foreign investors with Moscow ties?

Remember Giuliani jetting around with Russian-linked businessmen while selling “access”?

That’s not coincidence. That’s capture. That’s buying America’s soul one dirty dollar at a time.

D. Capturing the Elite

Here’s the doctrine: kompromat. Catch. Compromise. Control.

Sex tapes.

Think Epstein’s black book was just a creepy billionaire’s hobby? No…it was leverage. It was kompromat weaponized.

Loans and bailouts.

Deutsche Bank’s endless loans to Trump weren’t “bad banking.” They were a conveyor belt of dependency.

Business deals that turn into blackmail.

Ask yourself why so many American elites suddenly parrot Moscow’s lines. Why so many refuse to criticize Putin even as he invades Europe…poisons rivals…assassinates journalists.

This isn’t about “friendship.” It’s about ownership. Ownership through secrets. Ownership through money. Ownership through shame and fear.

And here’s the brutal truth: Putin doesn’t need all of them. He just needs enough. Enough to stall action. Enough to fracture unity. Enough to paralyze the system.

E. Military Paralysis Without a Shot Fired

This is the masterstroke. The real victory.

Putin doesn’t need to beat the U.S. military. He doesn’t need to take out our tanks… jets…or carriers. He just needs to make sure we can’t use them.

How? By making us fight ourselves.

• Congress hesitates to fund Ukraine.

• MAGA crowds weaken NATO commitments.

• Military readiness gets politicized. One side screams “warmonger!” The other screams “appeasement!” Action stalls. Paralysis wins.

By the time a real crisis erupts…America is too divided…too paralyzed…too poisoned by internal fracture to respond decisively.

And that’s how you conquer a superpower without firing a shot.

The Odds of Stopping Putin’s Silent Takeover of America?

What are our chances…really…of shutting down the Kremlin’s creeping grip on America before it becomes permanent?

That’s the question everyone wants answered.

And here’s the truth you won’t hear from the talking heads on cable:

There isn’t a single clean number you can pull from a government spreadsheet. No database entry labeled “foreign capture of democracy.”

But there is a way to make a disciplined…evidence-based forecast. You do it the way an insurance company calculates risk…the way a battlefield commander weighs the odds before committing forces: by looking at base rates, current capabilities, and trend lines.

So here’s my best forecast for the next 24 months…through August 2027.

(And, hey…I’m not “GOD,” or the “Powerful OZ,” so take it…or leave it. I’m giving you what I’ve come up with.)

• America stops the takeover before it “completes”: 55% (range 50–65%).

• Muddle-through / partial capture: 35% (range 25–40%).

• Completed capture…Kremlin-aligned outcomes locked in: 10% (range 5–20%).

Those are the cold numbers. But let’s translate them into the plain English that Dan Kennedy would insist on:

We’ve got just over a coin-flip’s chance of saving this country. A one-in-three shot of drifting into a compromised…half-poisoned state. And a non-trivial risk…ten percent… the same odds a healthy man has of dying before 60…that we wake up in a Kremlin-shaped coffin.

What Counts as “Complete”?

Before we go deeper, let’s define terms.

“Complete capture” doesn’t mean Russian tanks on Pennsylvania Avenue. It means the U.S. is structurally aligned with Kremlin interests across four or more of these six pillars for two years straight:

1. Ukraine abandoned. Aid cut off…no return.

2. NATO crippled. Exit or deliberate disengagement.

3. Sanctions gutted. Laundering lanes reopened.

4. Elections neutered. Security bodies sidelined or politicized.

5. Information space tamed. Disinfo defenses dismantled…platforms cowed.

6. Russian narratives normalized. Parroted by elite U.S. politics and major media.

That’s the scoreboard. Hit four out of six…and you can stop calling it America.

Why the “Stop It” Case Still Leads (55%)

If this were a horse race, “Stop the Takeover” is still in the lead…but barely…and sweating hard.

1) Institutions haven’t collapsed.

Despite the chaos…2024 elections were held and deemed legitimate. Freedom House even nudged our score up on integrity. That doesn’t mean victory. But it does mean resilience…proof the spine isn’t broken.

2) The election-security backbone still exists.

CISA…the unglamorous…underpaid civil servants who keep ballots from being hacked…are still on the field. Courts clipped the broad “gag” injunction that had paralyzed government-platform coordination. That frees up at least some communication to spot foreign threats. (Yes, I know Trump has stated he will end mail-in ballots. I’ll deal with that in an upcoming newsletter.)

3) Sunlight works, eventually.

The Senate Intelligence Committee’s exhaustive Russia reports didn’t vanish into thin air. They hardened a consensus inside agencies…courts…and state election offices. You can still find professionals who know Russian interference is real…and act on it.

This is why we’re still at 55%. Because the system…patched…battered…leaking….still staggers forward.

Why “Partial Capture” Is Alive and Kicking (35%)

Now, here’s the scenario most likely if we don’t sharpen our knives: muddle-through mediocrity. The country limps forward while Moscow chalks up slow-motion wins.

1) The Russian firehose never shuts off.

Propaganda doesn’t need to be consistent. It just needs to be constant. The RAND model proved it: lies scale faster than truth because they’re cheap…fast…and don’t have to be coherent. Add generative AI…and you’ve got a 24/7 flood.

2) Ongoing ops are documented.

U.S. agencies flagged Russian disinfo activity before the 2024 vote. Translation: they’re not just still at it…they’re better at it.

3) Our defenses are politically strangled.

The State Department’s Global Engagement Center has been left to rot. University disinfo research is under attack. Bills to defund counter-disinfo are on the House floor. Less research…fewer sensors…weaker shields.

4) Dirty money guardrails are buckling.

In March 2025…Treasury kneecapped beneficial-ownership rules….the very reporting requirements that let investigators trace oligarch money. If that rollback sticks… Kremlin cash floods back into PACs…real estate…and shell companies like an open artery.

That’s why the 35% “partial capture” forecast is not only possible…but dangerously probable.

Why “Completed Capture” Is Still a Tail Risk (10%)

Don’t dismiss ten percent.

That’s the same statistical chance you’ll total your car in a lifetime of driving. Small enough to ignore daily….but if you don’t insure against it…it will ruin you.

To “finish the job,” Moscow needs dominoes to fall in sequence: NATO pullback… Ukraine abandoned…counter-disinfo dismantled…and oligarch money unshackled.

Heavy lift? Absolutely.

But not impossible…especially if Americans keep mistaking this for a movie war with tanks…instead of the slow drip of policies…pipelines…and propaganda.

That’s how empires rot. Not with a bang…but with a shrug.

What Moves the Probabilities

Let’s strip the paint and talk about levers. What moves the odds up…or drives them straight down into Moscow’s pocket?

Green Lights (toward “Stop It”)

• State & local election resilience stays funded…tied into CISA.

• Legal space for government-platform coordination remains intact.

• Transparency keeps the stigma high on foreign interference.

Yellow Lights (partial capture)

• The disinfo firehose keeps outpacing truth.

• Universities and NGOs censor themselves to avoid political attacks.

• Democracy indicators flatline.

Red Lights (completed capture)

• Counter-influence architecture dismantled: GEC…CISA…FMIC clipped.

• Beneficial-ownership rules gutted…laundering lanes wide open.

• NATO degradation and Ukraine collapse baked into U.S. policy.

That’s the dashboard. Ignore it at your peril.

The Bottom Line

If you’re waiting for tanks…you’ll miss the war.

This fight is not about soldiers. It’s about spreadsheets…subpoenas…platform policies… and a thousand daily skirmishes fought with laws and regulations most Americans will never hear about.

Right now…the odds still favor us. Barely. Not because Washington is brave. Not because the Democratic Party has grown a spine. But because courts are stubborn… federalism is messy…and civil society is loud.

That’s the only wedge we’ve got. And if we drive it hard…we can win.

My call: we’ve got a coin-flip plus chance…55%…to shut this down before it hardens.

But here’s the knife twist:

That number assumes we keep the pipes for truth open…starve dark-money pipelines… and hammer lawmakers daily to restore the counter-influence toolkit.

Neglect even two of those…and we slide into the 35% swamp. Let three red lights flash at once…and the Kremlin takes its 10% shot and buries us.

Why This Matters to You

This isn’t an academic exercise. These numbers aren’t just for think-tank wonks. They’re for you.

Because every phone call you make to a lawmaker…every local election you fight to protect…every dollar you deny to a Kremlin-compromised PAC…those things nudge the odds. They add percentage points to survival.

And if you think your single voice doesn’t matter…remember this: foreign disinfo campaigns count on you believing that lie. They win the minute you stop swinging.

Final Word

Don’t wait for perfect conditions…don’t wait for heroes…don’t wait for saviors. Get loud. Get relentless. Get practical.

Stop letting the enemy set the frame. If you’re talking about tanks…you’ve already lost. Talk about the plumbing…the money pipes…the data pipes…the narrative pipes…and jam them.

The smartest investment you can make right now isn’t in a stock…it’s in your own action. Because the payoff…freedom…beats every dollar on the planet.

The silent takeover isn’t inevitable. But it’s not impossible either.

The odds are in our hands. For now.

That’s it for now. Believe me…I’ll be back. I’ll keep bringing it. I’ll never stop. If you don’t hear from me…you’ll know it’s because I’ve been stopped.

Shoulders back. Chin up. Eyes up. Fire in each step. That…is the physiology of excellence and purpose.

-Jack

P.S. For paid subscribers: tomorrow I’ll lay out concrete…step-by-step actions you can take to personally tilt the odd…what to say to lawmakers…how to spot & report disinfo… and where your leverage is highest.

Because 55% isn’t good enough. We need to make it 70…80…90%.

And that…won’t happen by accident.