I think the biggest problem is neither Iran nor the US (although neither are particularly trustworthy partners in this negotiation), it's Israel.
As for what's driving this now? I would have to guess it's the oil industry here in the US. It will take time for the whole situation to resolve itself in terms of supply/production/distribution, and my guess is someone looked at a calendar and said prices need to go down prior to the mid-terms. How much time do we need/have before it's too late?
And will the majority of voters in the US actually LOOK at this agreement and realize it's far worse than what we had with the original agreement under President Obama? My guess is not a chance.
Roberta...you're hitting the part most coverage skates past.
Iran and the US are both unreliable narrators here, sure...but Israel has the most direct leverage over what this deal can actually contain...and...very LITTLE incentive to let it hold.
Your read on the timing feels right. The push to get something signed...and to get the Strait reopened smells a LOT more like a calendar problem...than a security one.
Lower prices before the midterms is a tidy little story...even if the supply chain won't cooperate on that schedule.
And no...I don't think most voters will sit down and compare this to the JCPOA line by line.
The 2015 framework had verification with TEETH. What's being rushed out now...is an interim patch to end a war...we're partly responsible for STARTING.
Those aren't the same thing...and...the gap won't show up in a headline.
Exactly what I was thinking-make gas prices go down before the elections. Plus, our “negotiators” are real estate guys. I hope there are a few who know something about reality. Plus, it’s on Friday to tear headlines away from Obama’s library opening in Chicago. MSNow is covering the Obama library on Thursday and Friday. 👹 #HOLDFAST
Roberta, I signed on to say that it’s not just Iran v US, Iran v US&Israel, which compounds all of the levels where negotiations fall apart. And I agree that the outcome will be far inferior to Obama’s.
What Roberta says! Israel got Trump in this mess. What is their part in the agreement? And if Israel continues to do war on the region, will it not keep the US/Iran deal fractured?
I was about to say the same thing Roberta! There’s really no reason for Israel to NOT throw a spanner in the works. They have too much to lose allowing this to go forward.
I think all of the reasons things could go south apply. That said, my top two are the nuclear question itself and regional actors with political pressure probably gaining. I agree this will be very interesting to watch.
Bibi has a vested interest in this continuing. If Israel is tied to the agreement, Bibi could blow things out the water in any given second.
The nuclear is interesting… I’m wondering if there is some ‘give’ there since it was restricted in the deal we had, the one t tore up. There is a reason that deal took literal years to negotiate so there’s that and the world has changed in the intervening time. I doubt the US will be able to get a better deal than we had. We’d be blessed to get equal….
And I’m guessing political pressure is increasing…..
Additionally, now that Iran has a taste of their leverage with the Strait of Hormuz….. well, who knows what they will do with it.
I’d love to be optimistic, however cautiously, and….. I’ve been paying attention. So…. I am taking the we’ll see stance on this one. Neutral if you will and simply observing. Negotiating a real deal will NOT be easy…
Deb...the "we'll see" stance is the honest one right now...and I'm largely there with you.
The Bibi point is the one I'd underline hardest; if Israel is tied into this he holds a detonator he has EVERY political reason to keep within reach. That alone...makes "signed" and "durable" two very DIFFERENT words.
Your instinct on the nuclear piece tracks for me too. The JCPOA took years...precisely because VERIFICATION is the hard part...and...I don't see how a deal rushed under wartime pressure...clears that bar. I just don't.
Equal to what we tore up would be a win...and I'm not sure we get equal.
The Strait is the wildcard I keep circling back to as well. Iran has now felt the weight of that lever. Hard to UNLEARN that. "We'll see" ...might be the ONLY defensible position until we find out what they ask for it.
Interesting for sure and….. I keep thinking about how Iran and the US want different things out of this. It will be interesting to see if they can narrow that gulf… and what we’ll have to concede…
The bigger challenge will be Israel’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon especially if Israel is forced back into pre Oct 18th borders.
It’s ironic that a diminished empire;both ancient and modern challenges about land Israel currently encompasses;and a modern empire that fell back into operating under ancient rules combined to fell a modern empire that worked well under new rules of societal order.
It was never the task of the US to resolve ancient disputes.
PattyG...this is the kind of comment I reread a couple of times.
The image of a modern power "falling back into ancient rules" is going to stay with me... because it describes something I've struggled to name...the way OLD logics of land and conquest keep resurfacing inside states that present themselves as modern.
You're right that Gaza...the West Bank...and Lebanon are the pressure points...and that being pushed toward the October ceasefire lines... is EXACTLY where the next rupture lives.
Let me hand the metaphor back to you...since you built it well: if the US is the modern empire that "worked under new rules,"...do you think those rules were ever real...or...were they always contingent on NOT being tested by something this old?
We’re victims of our own success. The rule of law became so embedded in our lives that we forgot it was there. It enabled economic success for the average Joe as the country expanded and settled into its present configuration. Individuals could move into middle and upper classes without inherited wealth or status.
It gave room for people of multiple faiths to breathe and grow without political repression.
It also allowed the development of American Christianity tied to the nation.
And we never fully resolved the Civil War. We believed that because the law was on the books, it would happen.
Boomers after WWII lived at a time when government hummed along on its own. WWII warriors were our leaders. Our military became voluntary. Our government demanded nothing from us.
There has always been the tiny percentage who think law doesn’t apply to them. Con artists have existed forever.
Because of our success, we weren’t prepared to see the danger when faith communities became eligible for federal funds. We didn’t see a problem with Citizens United. Must of us had no clue what that meant. We believed we had a right to bodily privacy forever.
And then a con man with money wanted brand recognition. He made deals with all the fringe groups wanting power to change our colior, our faith, or privacy, and our economic success. And the way to get those changes was through a unitary executive.
We didn’t recognized the danger when it lied to our faces.
Other than Pilgrims, the earliest colonists came seeking free wealth. These families that stayed in the northeast morphed into Old (monied) families whose wealth increasingly separated from land. Families in the south with their wealth in the land based society more on European landed gentry.
The northeast moved away from indentured servants going to paying employees. The south Needed indentured servants go become slaves. Southerners had no cash to pay employees
When the Revolution came, both north and south could agree on rule of law for monied men.
The rule of law worked too well. More and more categories of men fell under its protections.
It works until it runs afoul of wealth. The trade-off for the freedom of the slaves was the loss of land-based wealth. Landowners had to start over again while former slaves fell under the protections of the law.
Italians moving into the northeast brought the idea of the Don, the chief, the duke, the one whose will is the law for the land under his control.
This model, the Mafia, is the one Mr. Trump believes in. Add that to landless southerners still fight the civil war to return to a time when the south was influenced by French society.
We were meant to be led by HONORABLE, responsible monied men influenced by Christian values. We weren’t prepared for a dishonorable, irresponsible man who believes in the mafia model — the strongman , caveman— model of leadership
Sunday's announcement was a framework...NOT a signed deal...and the hard parts are STILL being negotiated.
"Signing Friday in Geneva" has all the makings of a date...that slips once the cameras move on. And...yeah...announcing it hours before the cage fights on his actual birthday ...tells you what the priority was.
I agree that this is not really going to fix the problem. BiBi wanted this and has not signed on to it. He is a scorched earth man and he was not in the loop. 5 presidents before drumpf were asked to attack Iran and this idiot went along with the suicide mission. I am just going to watch and see if anything really works out.
This doesn't touch the actual problem. One wrinkle on Bibi: the read I'm seeing is less "he wanted this" and more that he got SIDELINED.
He's gone conspicuously quiet...his people say he doesn't even have the details yet...and he's asking for a sit-down with Trump...which usually means reserving the right to act on his OWN terms...NOT buy-in.
That's the part that worries me most: a US–Iran paper deal that Israel can blow up with one strike in Lebanon.
I believe the danger is here at home. 🟠🤬 has no negotiation skills and Putin and BIBI know that. They'll probably give him a trophy saying how awesome he is and he'll agree with anything Iran offers.
I am so much in the "how the fuck" people elected this AH twice? How our Senators are willing to let this go on and on? Where are the adults?
If the people don't get out and vote to end this terroir we are cooked! 🙏ing some respectable adults will show up and arrest them all! God willing and the creek don't rise, we will win our democracy back! The sooner the better!
Here's the thing buried in your own comment...that I want to underline: "get out and vote."
That's the part that's actually in OUR hands.
Nobody respectable is going to ride in and arrest anyone...the cavalry was always going to be US...at the ballot box...and in the off-year races...nobody pays attention to.
So...channel the rage into registering three people...who sat out last time.
This Memorandum of Understanding or ceasefire... is not a peace deal. While I commend both sides for stopping the shooting, there is much more serious work to be done. This administration has shown it is lazy and incompetent at true diplomacy... or anything else for that matter.
I am waiting on the outcome, while not holding my breath.
William...you've zoomed in on the exact thing most of the coverage is blurring.
A ceasefire stops the shooting...an MOU is a statement of INTENT...and a peace deal resolves the things people were shooting OVER; enrichment limits...verification and inspections...sanctions sequencing..the proxies...who actually controls the Strait.
NONE of that is in Friday's signature. "Waiting on the outcome..not holding my breath" is the only sane posture.
This Memorandum slows the fighting between the US & Iran, but there are several other countries/governments that have skin in this game. Those issues with the US and/or Iran -- as far as anything currently revealed in the Memorandum -- are not addressed, nor are they co-signers of the agreements. Iraq, Israel, Gaza, UAE and possibly Oman are potentially impacted by the instability of their neighbor under attack.
We unnecessarily opened a conflict with a region so unlike ours that this conflict "passeth all understanding" by an ignoramus.
It's a sad state of affairs when I believe the reports coming from Iran, other than what's coming out of this White House 😖 Good article today, Jack, here's hoping you and your readers have a good week and will reStack ASAP 💯👍
Photos of before and after Trump bombed Iran, and be sure you included the Strait, are the most telling evidence that this is the war Israel made. Regime change, why? For Israel, of course. Obliterating their nuclear weapons, a solution for the Middle East but mostly Israel. You have nailed the problem we have now, the 60 days, the second agreement, the fact that the general public will look away, but sincerely, we weren’t threatened and we aren’t the adult in any room, anymore. We aren’t purposed to change regimes. We don’t police nuclear weapons or we would have been at war how many times as each country attained nuclear, so I’m left yet again with saying that we don’t belong there, anywhere in Israel’s war. If they worry about Iran having nuclear weapons, well I worry about Israel having nuclear weapons, or Pakistan or India and the list goes on. Your explanation of where we most likely will be as this part of the world comes to grips with conflict and control of their part of the world is still theirs to solve. Israel is the owner of this one. They light the match every time that they kill another innocent person.
Ever since the war with Iran began, I wondered why Russia aligned with Iran. Trump and Putin established an alliance of some sorts.Right
Based on all the lies and miss information from the WH, is Trump really playing the long game with Russia AND Iran. Was the Iran war in someway motivated to further destroy the World Order?
It’s hard for me to trust anything out of the WH at face value…
Jack’s analysis is excellent. He touches on many of the issues facing the US “negotiators” in the coming months. He also addresses many items I would like to comment on.
First his statement “In fact, I think that’s where many people will stop paying attention”.
They will stop paying attention for the reasons Jack states plus one other very important one. They will believe this because the media will stop covering this travesty with the same journalistic aggression that they have shown in the last couple of weeks. People will believe what they are told by the “experts”, at least until they experience something to the contrary. For example, when gas prices fail to drop precipitously as Trump promised after the straits were “re-opened”, their concern may or may not be re-kindled.
His next statement is a great one: “People who were willing to compromise to stop a war…may become far less willing to compromise when the discussion shifts toward long-term concessions.”
Here is where Trump has no leverage. He is dealing from a position of weakness. Iran is holding all the cards anyone cares anything about. They will still control the Strait of Hormuz. Most people could care less about Iran having a nuclear weapon or fissile material to be able to create one. Trump doesn’t care either as he demonstrated when he said he wanted to take over Iran’s and the other middle east nation’s oil and claim for “the US” , really himself. 20 percent of the oil revenues.
Jack’s section on indicators is right on the money. We need to be paying attention to all that he talks about. I think his two critical indictors are the schedule slipping, which they certainly will, and do the negotiators continue meeting even when the negotiations appear to be going nowhere. Trumps willingness to pull his negotiating team at the first sign of disagreement will doom any negotiations to that point or in the future.
In the Bigger Lesson, Jack talks about the 60-day period as the process. I think what happens in that period is the process. the 60 days is merely a time period.
If I hear from either side that negotiations were “productive”, I will immediately tune out. It would mean a lot more if specifics were cited, like three issues were agreed to today and we are far apart on eight others, or whatever the numbers are. Specifics lead to public confidence; platitudes lead to public skepticism. Fixing a problem is hard, which is why the media avoids a discussion of a fix like the plague.
New ownership of Warner Brothers, CBS, CNN and Paramount will ensure that the platitudes will keep on coming and nothing specific will occur unless both Trum and Iran agree that it is so, Let’s not hold out breath!
Bibi Netanyatu is the biggest threat to any successful outcome to the negotiations. He and Trump and both mentally unstable and cannot be relied on for any sensible dialog or contribution to a sustained, peaceful outcome.
Jack, you are approaching this as if intelligent people with knowledge and experience who actually know something about negotiating ending a war are involved. They certainly are not here. They will be lucky if this thing doesn't blow up before they get to sign it on Friday.
Also, have you noticed that nothing has been included about getting Congressional approval of this? Funny because where in hell does he think he is going to get $300 BILLION dollars to buy the Iranians off. What a nightmare.
A very timely newsletter indeed, but I don’t expect anything less than the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth when written by Jack Hopkins! I think the wild card in this game is Bibi Satanyahu. He has been the most consistent ‘ceasefire’ violators since the onset of this Iran debacle. I think they left Bibi off the guest list so to speak, because he always, always breaks the ‘ceasefires’ by bombing someone somewhere, most recently Lebanon just in case a few lucky Palestinians were able to escape Gaza and take up residence. The common denominator here is ‘fear of prosecution’ a disease both Trump and Satanyahu have. Watching what happens with bated breath, somehow my inner self is saying this may just be another nothingburger from the Trump regime. #HOLDFAST
I think the biggest problem is neither Iran nor the US (although neither are particularly trustworthy partners in this negotiation), it's Israel.
As for what's driving this now? I would have to guess it's the oil industry here in the US. It will take time for the whole situation to resolve itself in terms of supply/production/distribution, and my guess is someone looked at a calendar and said prices need to go down prior to the mid-terms. How much time do we need/have before it's too late?
And will the majority of voters in the US actually LOOK at this agreement and realize it's far worse than what we had with the original agreement under President Obama? My guess is not a chance.
#HoldingFast
Roberta...you're hitting the part most coverage skates past.
Iran and the US are both unreliable narrators here, sure...but Israel has the most direct leverage over what this deal can actually contain...and...very LITTLE incentive to let it hold.
Your read on the timing feels right. The push to get something signed...and to get the Strait reopened smells a LOT more like a calendar problem...than a security one.
Lower prices before the midterms is a tidy little story...even if the supply chain won't cooperate on that schedule.
And no...I don't think most voters will sit down and compare this to the JCPOA line by line.
The 2015 framework had verification with TEETH. What's being rushed out now...is an interim patch to end a war...we're partly responsible for STARTING.
Those aren't the same thing...and...the gap won't show up in a headline.
#KeepHoldingFast
-Jack
Thanks, Jack. As you always say, "Look for the patterns", and I always say, "Follow the $$."
Exactly what I was thinking-make gas prices go down before the elections. Plus, our “negotiators” are real estate guys. I hope there are a few who know something about reality. Plus, it’s on Friday to tear headlines away from Obama’s library opening in Chicago. MSNow is covering the Obama library on Thursday and Friday. 👹 #HOLDFAST
Roberta, I signed on to say that it’s not just Iran v US, Iran v US&Israel, which compounds all of the levels where negotiations fall apart. And I agree that the outcome will be far inferior to Obama’s.
What Roberta says! Israel got Trump in this mess. What is their part in the agreement? And if Israel continues to do war on the region, will it not keep the US/Iran deal fractured?
I was about to say the same thing Roberta! There’s really no reason for Israel to NOT throw a spanner in the works. They have too much to lose allowing this to go forward.
Roberta - I came here to say the same thing. You outlined it well.
Thanks!
I think all of the reasons things could go south apply. That said, my top two are the nuclear question itself and regional actors with political pressure probably gaining. I agree this will be very interesting to watch.
Bibi has a vested interest in this continuing. If Israel is tied to the agreement, Bibi could blow things out the water in any given second.
The nuclear is interesting… I’m wondering if there is some ‘give’ there since it was restricted in the deal we had, the one t tore up. There is a reason that deal took literal years to negotiate so there’s that and the world has changed in the intervening time. I doubt the US will be able to get a better deal than we had. We’d be blessed to get equal….
And I’m guessing political pressure is increasing…..
Additionally, now that Iran has a taste of their leverage with the Strait of Hormuz….. well, who knows what they will do with it.
I’d love to be optimistic, however cautiously, and….. I’ve been paying attention. So…. I am taking the we’ll see stance on this one. Neutral if you will and simply observing. Negotiating a real deal will NOT be easy…
Thanks, Jack!
Deb...the "we'll see" stance is the honest one right now...and I'm largely there with you.
The Bibi point is the one I'd underline hardest; if Israel is tied into this he holds a detonator he has EVERY political reason to keep within reach. That alone...makes "signed" and "durable" two very DIFFERENT words.
Your instinct on the nuclear piece tracks for me too. The JCPOA took years...precisely because VERIFICATION is the hard part...and...I don't see how a deal rushed under wartime pressure...clears that bar. I just don't.
Equal to what we tore up would be a win...and I'm not sure we get equal.
The Strait is the wildcard I keep circling back to as well. Iran has now felt the weight of that lever. Hard to UNLEARN that. "We'll see" ...might be the ONLY defensible position until we find out what they ask for it.
#HoldingFast
-Jack
Interesting for sure and….. I keep thinking about how Iran and the US want different things out of this. It will be interesting to see if they can narrow that gulf… and what we’ll have to concede…
Yep, Deb.
The bigger challenge will be Israel’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon especially if Israel is forced back into pre Oct 18th borders.
It’s ironic that a diminished empire;both ancient and modern challenges about land Israel currently encompasses;and a modern empire that fell back into operating under ancient rules combined to fell a modern empire that worked well under new rules of societal order.
It was never the task of the US to resolve ancient disputes.
Yet here we are.
PattyG...this is the kind of comment I reread a couple of times.
The image of a modern power "falling back into ancient rules" is going to stay with me... because it describes something I've struggled to name...the way OLD logics of land and conquest keep resurfacing inside states that present themselves as modern.
You're right that Gaza...the West Bank...and Lebanon are the pressure points...and that being pushed toward the October ceasefire lines... is EXACTLY where the next rupture lives.
Let me hand the metaphor back to you...since you built it well: if the US is the modern empire that "worked under new rules,"...do you think those rules were ever real...or...were they always contingent on NOT being tested by something this old?
I genuinely go back and forth.
-Jack
I’m still thinking about your question.
We’re victims of our own success. The rule of law became so embedded in our lives that we forgot it was there. It enabled economic success for the average Joe as the country expanded and settled into its present configuration. Individuals could move into middle and upper classes without inherited wealth or status.
It gave room for people of multiple faiths to breathe and grow without political repression.
It also allowed the development of American Christianity tied to the nation.
And we never fully resolved the Civil War. We believed that because the law was on the books, it would happen.
Boomers after WWII lived at a time when government hummed along on its own. WWII warriors were our leaders. Our military became voluntary. Our government demanded nothing from us.
There has always been the tiny percentage who think law doesn’t apply to them. Con artists have existed forever.
Because of our success, we weren’t prepared to see the danger when faith communities became eligible for federal funds. We didn’t see a problem with Citizens United. Must of us had no clue what that meant. We believed we had a right to bodily privacy forever.
And then a con man with money wanted brand recognition. He made deals with all the fringe groups wanting power to change our colior, our faith, or privacy, and our economic success. And the way to get those changes was through a unitary executive.
We didn’t recognized the danger when it lied to our faces.
Other than Pilgrims, the earliest colonists came seeking free wealth. These families that stayed in the northeast morphed into Old (monied) families whose wealth increasingly separated from land. Families in the south with their wealth in the land based society more on European landed gentry.
The northeast moved away from indentured servants going to paying employees. The south Needed indentured servants go become slaves. Southerners had no cash to pay employees
When the Revolution came, both north and south could agree on rule of law for monied men.
The rule of law worked too well. More and more categories of men fell under its protections.
It works until it runs afoul of wealth. The trade-off for the freedom of the slaves was the loss of land-based wealth. Landowners had to start over again while former slaves fell under the protections of the law.
Italians moving into the northeast brought the idea of the Don, the chief, the duke, the one whose will is the law for the land under his control.
This model, the Mafia, is the one Mr. Trump believes in. Add that to landless southerners still fight the civil war to return to a time when the south was influenced by French society.
We were meant to be led by HONORABLE, responsible monied men influenced by Christian values. We weren’t prepared for a dishonorable, irresponsible man who believes in the mafia model — the strongman , caveman— model of leadership
This is the world he was raised in.
He’s not Obama, so I don’t think we even get it signed on Friday. This was a vanity project for trumps birthday.
Patricia...hard to argue with you.
Sunday's announcement was a framework...NOT a signed deal...and the hard parts are STILL being negotiated.
"Signing Friday in Geneva" has all the makings of a date...that slips once the cameras move on. And...yeah...announcing it hours before the cage fights on his actual birthday ...tells you what the priority was.
-Jack
Ditto that Patricia!
I agree that this is not really going to fix the problem. BiBi wanted this and has not signed on to it. He is a scorched earth man and he was not in the loop. 5 presidents before drumpf were asked to attack Iran and this idiot went along with the suicide mission. I am just going to watch and see if anything really works out.
#HOLDFAST
Teri
Teri...with you on the bottom line.
This doesn't touch the actual problem. One wrinkle on Bibi: the read I'm seeing is less "he wanted this" and more that he got SIDELINED.
He's gone conspicuously quiet...his people say he doesn't even have the details yet...and he's asking for a sit-down with Trump...which usually means reserving the right to act on his OWN terms...NOT buy-in.
That's the part that worries me most: a US–Iran paper deal that Israel can blow up with one strike in Lebanon.
Watching with you.
#HOLDFAST
-Jack
I agree he is not wanting this to stop. I do not believe drumpf can stop BiBi. We all have to sit and watch for the next move.
I believe the danger is here at home. 🟠🤬 has no negotiation skills and Putin and BIBI know that. They'll probably give him a trophy saying how awesome he is and he'll agree with anything Iran offers.
I am so much in the "how the fuck" people elected this AH twice? How our Senators are willing to let this go on and on? Where are the adults?
If the people don't get out and vote to end this terroir we are cooked! 🙏ing some respectable adults will show up and arrest them all! God willing and the creek don't rise, we will win our democracy back! The sooner the better!
Cindy...I feel EVERY word of this.
Here's the thing buried in your own comment...that I want to underline: "get out and vote."
That's the part that's actually in OUR hands.
Nobody respectable is going to ride in and arrest anyone...the cavalry was always going to be US...at the ballot box...and in the off-year races...nobody pays attention to.
So...channel the rage into registering three people...who sat out last time.
That's the move!
-Jack
Thank you and I'm on it!
This Memorandum of Understanding or ceasefire... is not a peace deal. While I commend both sides for stopping the shooting, there is much more serious work to be done. This administration has shown it is lazy and incompetent at true diplomacy... or anything else for that matter.
I am waiting on the outcome, while not holding my breath.
#HoldFast
William...you've zoomed in on the exact thing most of the coverage is blurring.
A ceasefire stops the shooting...an MOU is a statement of INTENT...and a peace deal resolves the things people were shooting OVER; enrichment limits...verification and inspections...sanctions sequencing..the proxies...who actually controls the Strait.
NONE of that is in Friday's signature. "Waiting on the outcome..not holding my breath" is the only sane posture.
#HoldFast
-Jack
This Memorandum slows the fighting between the US & Iran, but there are several other countries/governments that have skin in this game. Those issues with the US and/or Iran -- as far as anything currently revealed in the Memorandum -- are not addressed, nor are they co-signers of the agreements. Iraq, Israel, Gaza, UAE and possibly Oman are potentially impacted by the instability of their neighbor under attack.
We unnecessarily opened a conflict with a region so unlike ours that this conflict "passeth all understanding" by an ignoramus.
It's a sad state of affairs when I believe the reports coming from Iran, other than what's coming out of this White House 😖 Good article today, Jack, here's hoping you and your readers have a good week and will reStack ASAP 💯👍
Photos of before and after Trump bombed Iran, and be sure you included the Strait, are the most telling evidence that this is the war Israel made. Regime change, why? For Israel, of course. Obliterating their nuclear weapons, a solution for the Middle East but mostly Israel. You have nailed the problem we have now, the 60 days, the second agreement, the fact that the general public will look away, but sincerely, we weren’t threatened and we aren’t the adult in any room, anymore. We aren’t purposed to change regimes. We don’t police nuclear weapons or we would have been at war how many times as each country attained nuclear, so I’m left yet again with saying that we don’t belong there, anywhere in Israel’s war. If they worry about Iran having nuclear weapons, well I worry about Israel having nuclear weapons, or Pakistan or India and the list goes on. Your explanation of where we most likely will be as this part of the world comes to grips with conflict and control of their part of the world is still theirs to solve. Israel is the owner of this one. They light the match every time that they kill another innocent person.
Ever since the war with Iran began, I wondered why Russia aligned with Iran. Trump and Putin established an alliance of some sorts.Right
Based on all the lies and miss information from the WH, is Trump really playing the long game with Russia AND Iran. Was the Iran war in someway motivated to further destroy the World Order?
It’s hard for me to trust anything out of the WH at face value…
The biggest risk is regional actors, with special emphasis on Israel.
Jack’s analysis is excellent. He touches on many of the issues facing the US “negotiators” in the coming months. He also addresses many items I would like to comment on.
First his statement “In fact, I think that’s where many people will stop paying attention”.
They will stop paying attention for the reasons Jack states plus one other very important one. They will believe this because the media will stop covering this travesty with the same journalistic aggression that they have shown in the last couple of weeks. People will believe what they are told by the “experts”, at least until they experience something to the contrary. For example, when gas prices fail to drop precipitously as Trump promised after the straits were “re-opened”, their concern may or may not be re-kindled.
His next statement is a great one: “People who were willing to compromise to stop a war…may become far less willing to compromise when the discussion shifts toward long-term concessions.”
Here is where Trump has no leverage. He is dealing from a position of weakness. Iran is holding all the cards anyone cares anything about. They will still control the Strait of Hormuz. Most people could care less about Iran having a nuclear weapon or fissile material to be able to create one. Trump doesn’t care either as he demonstrated when he said he wanted to take over Iran’s and the other middle east nation’s oil and claim for “the US” , really himself. 20 percent of the oil revenues.
Jack’s section on indicators is right on the money. We need to be paying attention to all that he talks about. I think his two critical indictors are the schedule slipping, which they certainly will, and do the negotiators continue meeting even when the negotiations appear to be going nowhere. Trumps willingness to pull his negotiating team at the first sign of disagreement will doom any negotiations to that point or in the future.
In the Bigger Lesson, Jack talks about the 60-day period as the process. I think what happens in that period is the process. the 60 days is merely a time period.
If I hear from either side that negotiations were “productive”, I will immediately tune out. It would mean a lot more if specifics were cited, like three issues were agreed to today and we are far apart on eight others, or whatever the numbers are. Specifics lead to public confidence; platitudes lead to public skepticism. Fixing a problem is hard, which is why the media avoids a discussion of a fix like the plague.
New ownership of Warner Brothers, CBS, CNN and Paramount will ensure that the platitudes will keep on coming and nothing specific will occur unless both Trum and Iran agree that it is so, Let’s not hold out breath!
Bibi Netanyatu is the biggest threat to any successful outcome to the negotiations. He and Trump and both mentally unstable and cannot be relied on for any sensible dialog or contribution to a sustained, peaceful outcome.
Jack, you are approaching this as if intelligent people with knowledge and experience who actually know something about negotiating ending a war are involved. They certainly are not here. They will be lucky if this thing doesn't blow up before they get to sign it on Friday.
Also, have you noticed that nothing has been included about getting Congressional approval of this? Funny because where in hell does he think he is going to get $300 BILLION dollars to buy the Iranians off. What a nightmare.
A very timely newsletter indeed, but I don’t expect anything less than the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth when written by Jack Hopkins! I think the wild card in this game is Bibi Satanyahu. He has been the most consistent ‘ceasefire’ violators since the onset of this Iran debacle. I think they left Bibi off the guest list so to speak, because he always, always breaks the ‘ceasefires’ by bombing someone somewhere, most recently Lebanon just in case a few lucky Palestinians were able to escape Gaza and take up residence. The common denominator here is ‘fear of prosecution’ a disease both Trump and Satanyahu have. Watching what happens with bated breath, somehow my inner self is saying this may just be another nothingburger from the Trump regime. #HOLDFAST