The Psychology of False Flags; And Why Democrats Can’t Afford the Fantasy (Each Time Is a Win For Trump)

Why every “false flag” claim is a free win for Trump.

The Psychology of False Flags; And Why Democrats Can’t Afford the Fantasy (Each Time Is a Win For Trump)

Why every “false flag” claim is a free win for Trump.

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #555: Wednesday, September 17th, 2025.

Why Yelling “False Flag!” Is Doing the Authoritarians’ Work for Them

Understand this: if you care about democracy…if you give a damn about freedom…if you still believe in the fragile little experiment we call the United States of America… then I’m begging you: stop calling things “false flags.”

It feels sharp. It feels edgy. It feels like you’re in on some secret when you toss it out. But the truth? Nine times out of ten…when someone on our side reaches for that phrase, they’re not just wrong.

They’re handing ammunition straight to the very authoritarians we’re supposed to be fighting.

The Seductive Lie That Makes You Feel Smart (While Making You Powerless)

Let’s level with each other. We’re living in a time when nothing feels real. Every tragedy…every mass shooting…every violent outburst gets refracted through ten thousand filters before it ever hits your eyes.

You can’t open your phone without some smug troll whispering, “Crisis actor… staged event… government op…”

And here’s the thing…that’s their playbook. That’s how Trump’s army and the global authoritarian movement keep their people angry…cynical…and paranoid.

They don’t need truth. They need doubt. They need you to feel like you’re the mark in a magic trick.

So when Democrats…progressives…or democracy-loving Americans start parroting the same garbage…labeling every disturbing development a “false flag”…we look just as unhinged as the lunatics on the other side. Worse: we start playing their game…on their terms.

Here’s the Ugly Truth: Real False Flags Are Rare… But the Fantasy Is Everywhere

Let me be absolutely clear:

Real false flags are rare.

Gleiwitz, 1939…Nazis staged a radio station attack to justify invading Poland.

Operation Northwoods…1962…a proposed U.S. plan that never went forward. That’s the list. Two in the last century that get any traction.

Pulling them off is next to impossible now.

With phones…cameras…DNA… forensics…independent media? The odds of staging a modern-day “false flag” without someone blowing the whistle are microscopic.

But the narrative of a false flag? That’s everywhere. And it’s poison.

The Psychological Candy Bar Your Brain Can’t Resist

People reach for it because:

It’s simple.

Big, scary tragedy? Must be staged. That gives order to chaos.

It protects the ego.

If everything’s fake…you don’t have to grapple with the fact that your side is losing…or that the threat is real.

It makes you feel special.

You’re the smart one. The one who sees through the smoke. It’s ego armor disguised as skepticism.

That’s why MAGA influencers love it. And that’s why it’s suicide for us.

The MAGA Playbook: Confuse…Distract…Control

When Republicans call everything a “false flag,” they’re not analyzing. They’re programming. They’re seeding doubt in the bloodstream of their base.

Suddenly, it doesn’t matter what happened. A school shooting? Fake. A bombing? Fake. An attack on their own leader? Fake. Truth becomes optional…reality becomes negotiable…and only the authoritarian’s voice cuts through the fog.

When Democrats Repeat the Lie…We Hand Them the Win

So when Democrats…out of frustration…suspicion…or plain old anger…start throwing “false flag” around…we aren’t striking a blow for truth. We’re validating the authoritarian playbook.

We make reality optional. We train our own people to doubt everything. And worst of all: we look indistinguishable from the very conspiracy theorists we’re supposed to be fighting.

The Real Threats Aren’t Hidden in Smoke; They’re Standing Right in Front of You

Here’s the part we forget: it doesn’t take a grand conspiracy to wreck a democracy.

One angry man with a gun.

That’s it. Not a psyop…not an op…not a staged spectacle. Just one radicalized guy with a trigger finger…and suddenly you’ve got a martyr movement…a propaganda gift…and a pretext for crackdowns.

One election undermined.

Not even stolen. Just seeded with enough disinformation that 30% of the country believes it was stolen.

One Supreme Court decision.

A ruling that guts rights…greenlights raids…or rewrites precedent. Nothing staged about it. Just raw power…exercised in broad daylight.

One apathetic voter.

Millions of them…actually. People who stay home because they think it’s “all rigged.” That’s the true false flag…convincing you it’s hopeless…so you surrender the field without a fight.

That’s why “false flag” talk is not just wrong…it’s dangerously distracting. It pulls our eyes off the real…low-tech threats that are steamrolling us while we’re chasing phantoms.

BONUS: Down-and-Dirty Psychology of the “False Flag” Fixation

The Brain Loves Patterns…Even When They’re Fake

The human brain is a pattern-recognition machine. That’s how we survived predators on the savanna…hear rustling in the grass, better assume it’s a lion. But in modern politics…that instinct turns against us.

When something horrific happens…a mass shooting…a bombing…a political assassination attempt…the chaos feels unbearable. So the brain does what it always does: tries to stitch a neat pattern.

And the neatest, laziest pattern of all? “It’s staged. It’s fake. Somebody’s pulling the strings.”

Boom. Anxiety lowered. Brain tricked into thinking it has “the answer.” Reality avoided.

The Ego’s Armor: “I’m Smarter Than the Sheeple”

Nobody wants to feel like a dupe. Nobody wants to believe they’re the one being tricked. So the false flag narrative gives you a psychological life raft: you are the one who sees the trick.

It’s classic ego armor. Instead of wrestling with reality…that your side can lose…that chaos is real…that evil exists without a master plan…you inflate yourself by believing you’re the genius in the room.

Cognitive Dissonance: When Reality Hurts…Call It Fake

Cognitive dissonance is the fancy way of saying: when reality doesn’t match your worldview…your brain scrambles for a way out.

If you believe your political tribe is morally superior…how do you explain it when someone in your tribe commits violence? Easy: “That wasn’t real. It was staged to make us look bad.”

If you believe democracy is safe and stable…how do you explain an insurrection or assassination attempt? Easy: “It was a false flag, designed to scare us.”

That’s the dirty secret…“false flag” isn’t an analysis. It’s a coping mechanism. It’s denial wrapped in a bow.

Why False Flags Feel Like a Dopamine High

False flag narratives are addictive. They deliver a rush. You get fear (oh no, the world is collapsing), followed immediately by relief (ah, it’s staged, I’m safe). That one-two punch is catnip for the brain.

And just like any addiction…the dose has to escalate. Soon…every tragedy looks staged. Every event looks fake. Before long…you can’t tell reality from delusion.

The Tribe Effect: Belonging Beats Truth Every Time

Here’s another nasty little trick: believing in false flags makes you part of an “in group.” You and your fellow “truth seekers” bond over how clever you are.

Meanwhile, everyone else…the media…experts…neighbors…are “sheeple.” They’re the gullible out-group.

This tribal high is powerful. It makes people cling to the false flag narrative not because of facts…but because of identity. Let go of the narrative and you risk exile from your online tribe.

That’s why false flag culture feels cult-like. It isn’t about the event…it’s about belonging.

The Real Reason People Cling to Fantasy…Fear

Here’s the dirtiest truth of all: “false flag” is a way to avoid facing fear.

The reality is that random…lone-wolf violence exists. Authoritarian crackdowns exist. Democratic collapse is happening in real time. That’s terrifying.

But if you can tell yourself it’s all staged…suddenly you’ve got control again. You can laugh off the fear.

The cost? You stop responding to real threats. You sleepwalk into danger. You tune out when the wolves are at the door.

How Authoritarians Exploit Every One of These Weak Spots

Now you see why Trumpists and strongmen around the world pump this garbage into the bloodstream.

It keeps their base angry…paranoid, and loyal.

If everything’s staged…then only Dear Leader can tell you what’s real.

It muddies the waters.

Real violence gets lost in the fog. Who cares if someone actually got shot if it’s all “actors”?

It paralyzes the opposition.

If Democrats call something a false flag…we instantly lose credibility.

It distracts from the obvious.

While we chase staged phantoms…they’re gutting voting rights…stacking courts…and radicalizing millions with propaganda.

The Dangerous Addiction of Calling Everything a False Flag

“False flag” thinking is the mental junk food of democracy. It’s easy…it’s addictive…it feels good going down…and it leaves you weak, distracted, and vulnerable.

The real fight is harder. It’s slower. It’s about staying grounded in reality…even when reality is scarier than fantasy.

Because the second we let ourselves believe that nothing is real…we’ve already handed the game to the authoritarians.

The Action Plan: How We Break the False Flag Habit

Call out events for what they are.

If it’s political violence…say it. If it’s disinformation…call it disinformation. If it’s authoritarian crackdown…name it loud.

Educate our side.

Remind people that false flags are Hollywood fodder…not everyday reality. Show them the historical record. Strip the glamour out of the phrase.

Focus on the basics.

Vote. Organize. Protect institutions. Fund candidates. Pressure leaders. Keep the press free. Demand transparency. None of this is sexy…but it’s how democracies survive.

Resist despair.

The real “false flag” operation is the one that convinces you it’s already over. That’s what they want. That’s how they win without firing a shot.

Do You Really Want to Save Democracy?

Here’s what you need to remember: every time we use their language… we build their frame.

When we say “false flag,” we’re not just wrong. We’re doing their work for them. We’re making truth optional. We’re blurring the line between reality and fiction.

And if democracy is going to survive…we cannot afford to be sloppy with reality. Not now. Not ever.

So the next time some tragedy hits and your brain starts to whisper, “Was this staged?” …stop. Ask yourself: “Who benefits if I amplify that?” Because I’ll tell you who…it ain’t us.

It’s the authoritarians. It’s the strongmen. It’s the ones who live on doubt and thrive on confusion.

We don’t need to fight fire with fire. We need to fight lies with truth…fantasy with reality…chaos with clarity.

And that starts by killing the false flag fetish once and for all.

Now…take a slow breath in through the nose for a four count…..and now…a slow exhale through pursed lips….for a 6-8 count. That’s it.

Back soon.

-Jack