The New Year: Twelve Things That Are Actually on Our Side in 2026

Why the next election cycle isn’t the cliff edge they want you to believe it is

The New Year: Twelve Things That Are Actually on Our Side in 2026

Why the next election cycle isn’t the cliff edge they want you to believe it is

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #711: Thursday, January 1st, 2026.

First, Happy New Year!

Okay, now…let’s roll.

If you listen to the loudest voices online…you’d think democracy is already dead.

Buried. Cremated. Ashes scattered by billionaires with podcast microphones and politicians who confuse vengeance for strength.

That’s the emotional trap.

Because fear…pure…paralyzing fear…has always been the accelerant of authoritarian movements. It makes good people freeze. It convinces them they’re already beaten. It keeps them passive…while a loud minority pretends inevitability.

But here’s the truth most headlines won’t tell you:

2026 is not stacked entirely against democracy.

In fact, there are at least twelve powerful forces quietly working in the opposite direction…structural…psychological…demographic…and institutional realities that don’t show up in rage-bait tweets or panic-driven cable news chyrons.

These aren’t “hope vibes.”

They’re leverage points.

And once you see them…you can’t unsee them.

Now, before anyone accuses me of sugarcoating this-let’s be clear about something.

The threat is real.

Not rhetorical. Not hypothetical. Not something we can “manifest” away with good intentions.

There are people actively working to hollow out democratic norms…concentrate power…and make accountability optional.

They are coordinated…well-funded…and perfectly willing to burn institutions down if they can’t control them. Anyone telling you otherwise is either naïve…or lying.

So, no…this isn’t a victory lap.
And it sure as hell isn’t permission to relax.

But here’s the distinction that matters:

Existential threat does not mean inevitable outcome.

That’s the lie…authoritarian movements depend on most.

They want you to believe that because the danger is serious…the result is pre-ordained. That the arc is already bent. That resistance…is symbolic at best. That disengagement is rational.

It isn’t.

What’s happening…instead…quietly…unevenly…and outside the camera’s frame…is a contest between pressure and endurance.

Authoritarians rely on shock…speed…fear…and exhaustion.
Democracies survive on patience…documentation…local action…and memory.

That’s why these leverage points matter so much.

They don’t make the danger disappear…but…they change the terrain. They slow momentum. They create friction. They force overreach. They turn noise into record… and bravado…into liability.

And here’s the part that almost never gets said out loud:

Democracy doesn’t need everything to go right.
Authoritarianism needs almost nothing to go wrong.

Every misstep compounds. Every overreach leaves residue. Every attempt to intimidate creates documentation. Every effort to rush creates a paper trail.

That’s the asymmetry.

So…yes…stay alert. Stay serious. Stay engaged.
But don’t confuse vigilance with despair.

Despair is the emotional state they need you in.

Clear-eyed, informed persistence?
That’s how leverage gets applied.

And once you understand where the leverage is…
you stop panicking…
and you start positioning.

So let’s hold two things in our hands at the same time…because grown-ups can.

Yes…there is still an existential threat to democracy.
Yes…bad actors are testing limits…pressuring institutions…and daring the system to blink.
Yes…complacency would be catastrophic.

And…no…that does not mean the board is tilted irreversibly in their favor.

What it means…is that we are no longer in the phase where panic helps. Panic narrows vision. It makes everything look like a cliff…when most of what’s ahead is terrain…uneven…dangerous terrain…but terrain…nonetheless.

This is the phase where leverage matters more than volume.

Because while authoritarians rely on speed…intimidation…and exhaustion… democracies rely on something far less cinematic but far more durable: friction. Delay. Process. Memory. People who keep showing up after the adrenaline fades.

That’s why the next part matters.

Not as comfort.
Not as denial.
But as orientation.

The forces I’m about to lay out…do not eliminate the threat. They constrain it. They don’t guarantee outcomes…but they change probabilities. They don’t stop bad actors from trying…but they make every attempt more costly…more visible…and harder to sustain.

These are the twelve things quietly working on our side in 2026.

They don’t trend.
They don’t shout.
They don’t make good television.

But they shape…what happens next.

And once you see them clearly…
you stop reacting to every bang…
and start understanding…where the whimper actually comes from.

1. Authoritarian Movements Always Peak Before They Collapse

This is not opinion. It’s pattern recognition.

From Mussolini to McCarthyism to Nixon’s “silent majority,” authoritarian surges burn hot, fast, and self-consume. Why?

Because fear-based coalitions can expand quickly…but they cannot govern competently for long.

They overreach.
They purge allies.
They cannibalize their own credibility.
They fracture under the weight of loyalty tests.

As we enter 2026, the movement trying to centralize power through intimidation is no longer rising…it’s exposing its stress fractures in public.

That matters…because voters don’t need to love democracy.

They just need to stop trusting chaos.

2. Midterm Electorates Are Structurally Less Friendly to Extremism

Midterms aren’t presidential elections without the confetti.

They’re accountability elections.

And historically, they punish:

• Overreach

• Corruption

• Competence theater without results

• Cruelty masquerading as toughness

The electorate that shows up in midterms skews:

• Older

• More local

• More pragmatic

• Less tolerant of disruption that touches their daily lives

That’s bad news for movements built on spectacle instead of governance.

3. Voter Suppression Is Reaching Its Diminishing Returns

Yes, suppression efforts exist.
Yes…they matter.

But…here’s the uncomfortable truth for authoritarians:

You can’t suppress indefinitely without revealing fear.

Every new restriction is an admission that persuasion failed.

And in 2026, suppression tactics are:

• Better understood

• Better challenged

• Better documented

• Better anticipated

They no longer shock the system.

They mobilize it.

4. The Courts Are Not a Monolith-and They Never Were

Despite dire rhetoric, courts operate on precedent, process, and institutional legitimacy, not Twitter moods.

Judges…even ideologically conservative ones…are extremely sensitive to:

• Appearing partisan

• Being reversed

• Undermining their own authority

In 2026, the judiciary is facing a stark choice:

• Preserve legitimacy

• Or become openly political and lose compliance

History suggests which option institutions choose when survival is on the line.

5. Chaos Is a Terrible Re-Election Strategy

There’s a myth that voters secretly crave disorder.

They don’t.

They crave predictability.

Inflation…healthcare access…insurance rates…school funding…infrastructure…these are the silent issues that decide elections when the adrenaline wears off.

Movements that run on constant crisis exhaust their own audience.

In 2026…fatigue is not hypothetical.

It’s measurable.

6. Local Power Is Still Real Power

Authoritarian movements want you focused on national drama because local institutions are harder to dominate.

School boards.
City councils.
County prosecutors.
State courts.
Election administrators.

These roles don’t trend on social media…but they control the mechanics of democracy.

And here’s the good news:

Local elections are still winnable by organized…informed citizens at scale.

Always have been.

7. Young Voters Aren’t “Disengaged”-They’re Distrustful

This distinction matters.

Younger voters don’t reject democracy.
They reject performative bullshit.

They’re more likely to:

• Volunteer than donate

• Organize than campaign

• Pressure than praise

In 2026…this cohort isn’t smaller.

It’s larger…angrier…and far more experienced.

And they don’t need permission to act.

8. Information Control Is Failing in Both Directions

Censorship doesn’t work like it used to.

Narrative control doesn’t scale like it did in 2016.

Why?

Because counter-information ecosystems are now permanent.

Independent journalists.
Legal analysts.
Local reporters.
Whistleblowers.
Data archivists.

Truth doesn’t need virality anymore.

It needs persistence.

9. The “Strongman” Image Weakens Under Scrutiny

Strongmen thrive on mystique.

They crumble under:

• Court transcripts

• Depositions

• Timelines

• Receipts

• Conflicting statements

In 2026…the record is no longer hypothetical.

It’s documented.

And voters don’t need moral clarity to respond to incompetence.

They just need to recognize risk.

10. Economic Anxiety Cuts Both Ways

Fear can mobilize-or it can backfire.

When economic stress persists…voters stop blaming abstract enemies and start blaming who’s in charge.

That’s not ideology.

That’s survival instinct.

In 2026…kitchen-table reality will matter more than cable-news rage.

Always does.

11. Democracy Doesn’t Require Unity-It Requires Majorities

This is critical.

You do not need:

• National consensus

• Perfect messaging

• Universal enthusiasm

You need:

• Enough people

• In enough places

• At the right moments

Democracy survives through margins…not miracles.

And margins are built quietly.

12. Fear Is Losing Its Shock Value

Authoritarian rhetoric relies on escalation.

Every threat must be bigger.
Every enemy more dangerous.
Every election more “final.”

But escalation has a shelf life.

Eventually, people stop panicking and start asking:

“If everything is always an emergency… why isn’t anything actually improving?”

That question is poison to fear-based power.

The Real Advantage Going into 2026

Here’s what the doomsayers miss:

Democracy doesn’t need to win hearts.
It needs to outlast exhaustion.

And exhaustion is already setting in…on the side that promised dominance and delivered dysfunction.

The quiet advantage going into 2026 isn’t hope.

It’s reality.

Institutions adapt.
Voters recalibrate.
Extremes overplay their hand.
Local power reasserts itself.
Fatigue replaces fear.

That’s not naïve.

That’s historical.

Final Thought

The loudest people want you demoralized.

Because demoralized citizens don’t organize.
They don’t vote.
They don’t protect institutions.
They don’t show up locally.
They don’t document abuses.
They don’t pressure officials.

They doom-scroll and disengage.

But once you understand the forces actually in play…once you see the leverage points…you stop reacting.

You start positioning.

And positioning…is how democracies survive their most dangerous moments.

Not with panic.

But with persistence.

#HoldFast

Back soon,

-Jack

Jack Hopkins

P.S.
Every authoritarian movement relies on one silent ally: your belief that resistance is futile. You know…it’s not.

Once that belief cracks…even slightly…the entire structure weakens.

2026 isn’t the end…it’s the beginning.

It’s a stress test.

And…there’s far more on our side than they want you to see.

P.P.S.
If you’re a free subscriber…I hope you enjoyed the December 22nd–January 2nd No Paywall holiday stretch.

Starting tomorrow, I’ll return to a mix of free and paid publishing.

Do free subscribers get short-changed?

Absolutely not.

I load my free articles with real substance…context…analysis…and tools you can actually use. Paid subscribers simply go one level deeper: more detail…more connective tissue…more strategic framing.

Same work.
Same integrity.
Different depth.

Read what serves you.
Upgrade when you’re ready.

-Jack