The Man Who Spent 20 Years Studying an Iran War Just Issued a Terrifying Warning

Robert Pape believes America has entered an escalation trap–and that the next move could be an attack designed to kill Americans in large numbers.

The Man Who Spent 20 Years Studying an Iran War Just Issued a Terrifying Warning

Robert Pape believes America has entered an escalation trap–and that the next move could be an attack designed to kill Americans in large numbers.

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #980: Friday, July 24th, 2026

Let me tell you about a man you should probably listen to right now.

His name is Robert Pape.

He isn’t a television general trying to land a consulting contract.

He isn’t a politician looking for airtime.

And…he isn’t some anonymous social-media account…drawing red arrows across a map of Iran.

Pape is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago…the founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats…and the author of major works on AirPower…coercion and suicide terrorism.

He has spent decades studying what happens when powerful nations attempt to bomb weaker adversaries into submission.

For roughly 20 years, he has modeled the possibility of war with Iran.

Now he says the United States may be walking directly into the most dangerous stage of that war.

And his warning is brutally simple:

The next major Iranian response may not be another symbolic missile volley.

It may be an attack designed to kill a very large number of American troops…or American civilians…at once.

That does not mean Pape knows an attack is coming.

It does not mean he has seen classified intelligence.

It means…a man who has spent much of his career studying how wars escalate… believes the incentives are now pointing in that direction.

And when someone with that background…says the next step may be mass casualties, you do not panic.

But…you damn well pay attention.

ORIENTATION

The biggest mistake Americans can make right now is assuming the most visible part of the war is the most important part.

We see bomb damage.

We see satellite photographs.

We see destroyed buildings…dead commanders…and triumphant briefings.

Then…someone stands behind a podium…and tells us the enemy has been “degraded.”

That word should make you nervous.

Because degraded does not mean defeated.

It does not mean disarmed.

It does not mean the enemy has lost the ability to retaliate.

And…it sure as shit does not mean the enemy has accepted the political outcome Washington wants.

Pape’s central argument…is that America has entered what he calls an escalation trap.

The United States possesses overwhelming conventional firepower. It can destroy military installations…command centers…air-defense systems and infrastructure.

But if those attacks fail to produce surrender, regime collapse or a negotiated settlement, Washington faces an ugly choice:

Back down without achieving its stated objectives…

Or escalate again.

More bombing.

More targets.

More American personnel.

Perhaps eventually American ground forces.

This is the trap.

Every escalation is supposed to create the leverage needed to end the war.

But…damnit…every escalation also gives Iran a stronger incentive to impose costs large enough to force the United States to reconsider.

That is how governments find themselves fighting wars…they never intended to fight.

Not through one enormous decision.

Through a staircase of smaller decisions…each presented…as the only logical response to what happened before.

DOCTRINE

Pape has built much of his career around one uncomfortable observation:

Military destruction and political success are not the same thing.

You can destroy a target without destroying the enemy’s will.

You can kill commanders without eliminating the organization.

You can crater runways…collapse tunnels and hit production sites while leaving the enemy more determined than before.

Pape’s academic work has focused extensively on strategic airpower and the political logic of terrorism. His books include Bombing to Win, Dying to Win and Cutting the Fuse.

The lesson running through that work is not that military force never works.

It is that force works…only when it changes the enemy’s political calculation.

And that…is much harder than blowing up a building.

Iran has spent decades preparing for a conflict in which it cannot match the United States aircraft for aircraft or ship for ship.

So it does not need to fight the war America prefers.

It can disperse weapons.

Move launchers.

Use proxies.

Target shipping.

Strike bases.

Sabotage infrastructure.

Exploit vulnerable supply chains.

Or…attempt something spectacular enough…to shock the American public and transform the political environment overnight.

This is the logic behind Pape’s warning.

Iran does not need to defeat the United States military.

It needs to convince Americans…that the price of continuing the war is higher than the value of whatever Washington is trying to achieve.

And mass casualties can change political calculations…faster than almost anything else.

SIGNAL

This is the part I want you to understand.

Pape is not necessarily describing an attack on a crowded shopping mall in Kansas City…or a train station in Chicago.

A mass-casualty attack could take many forms.

A strike on a concentrated group of American troops.

A successful attack on a major military installation.

A ship hit…while carrying hundreds or thousands of personnel.

A coordinated proxy operation.

An attack on energy or civilian infrastructure…that produces cascading deaths.

Or an operation against civilians intended to trigger fear…rage…and demands for retaliation.

In the interview, Pape argues that an attack producing substantial American casualties has become a likely next step in the conflict’s escalation…not because Iran can win a conventional war…but because it may need a dramatic act capable of changing America’s behavior.

That distinction matters.

The objective may not simply be revenge.

• The objective may be manipulation.

• Kill enough Americans.

• Create national trauma.

• Provoke an enormous response.

• Pull the United States deeper into the war.

• Radicalize more people.

• Expand the battlefield.

• Make withdrawal politically impossible.

That is not madness.

It is strategy.

A ruthless strategy.

A monstrous strategy.

But a strategy…nonetheless.

One of the most dangerous myths Americans carry into war…is the belief that our enemies want the same kind of victory we want.

They may not.

They may not need to capture territory.

They may not need to defeat our military.

They may not need to survive intact.

They may simply need to cause us to make decisions…that weaken us.

THE ATTACK AFTER THE ATTACK

Suppose Pape is right.

Suppose an attack kills dozens…hundreds…or even more Americans.

What happens next?

The television networks switch to continuous coverage.

Flags appear behind every anchor.

Politicians demand immediate retaliation.

Anyone calling for restraint is accused of weakness.

The White House promises that those responsible…will pay a price they cannot imagine.

Targets expand.

Troops move.

Congress falls in line.

The public…frightened and furious…accepts actions it would have rejected 24 hours earlier.

That is the attack after the attack.

The first attack kills people.

The second…attacks judgment.

It compresses time.

Narrows choices.

Punishes deliberation.

And…creates the psychological conditions under which leaders can take a limited conflict…and turn it into a generational catastrophe.

We have seen this pattern before.

The emotional demand to do something…becomes more powerful than the strategic requirement to do the right thing.

And once that happens…the enemy begins influencing American policy from the outside.

That is why preparation cannot begin after the explosion.

It must begin before it.

THE GROUND-WAR PROBLEM

Pape also warns about the possibility that the United States could eventually introduce ground forces if bombing fails to achieve Washington’s objectives.

That would fundamentally change the character of the conflict.

Air campaigns allow Americans to imagine war as something distant…technical…and controlled.

Ground forces remove that illusion.

Ground operations require supply lines.

Bases.

Convoys.

Personnel concentrations.

Local partners.

Occupation zones.

And…human beings standing on territory that armed groups consider their homeland.

Pape’s research has long argued that foreign military presence can become a powerful driver of suicide terrorism and insurgent mobilization.

His conclusions have been debated by other scholars…but…the basic danger is real:

Occupation gives adversaries more targets, more recruits and a clearer political narrative.

Once American troops enter Iran in significant numbers…the question may no longer be whether they can defeat Iranian formations in battle.

They almost certainly can.

The question becomes:

What political order follows?

Who governs?

Who secures the cities?

Who controls the roads?

Who prevents revenge killings?

Who protects nuclear material?

Who stops weapons from flowing to militias?

Who explains to the American public why troops are still dying three years later?

Wars are easy to sell when the map is clean and the arrows move in one direction.

Reality…is messier.

THE ENERGY WEAPON

Iran also possesses leverage far beyond the battlefield.

The Persian Gulf remains one of the most important energy corridors on Earth.

Iran does not necessarily need to seal the Strait of Hormuz permanently…to cause enormous damage.

It may only need to make passage dangerous…unpredictable…and expensive.

A damaged tanker.

A drone attack.

A mine.

A threatened shipping company.

An insurance market that suddenly decides the risk is too great.

Energy markets do not wait for complete closure.

They react to fear.

Prices rise.

Transportation costs increase.

Inflation returns.

Businesses pay more.

Families pay more.

Governments come under pressure.

This is another way a militarily weaker country can impose costs on a stronger one.

Not by destroying its army.

By disrupting the system…its citizens depend upon.

WHAT PAPE MAY BE WRONG ABOUT

Responsible analysis requires something more than repeating the most frightening prediction.

Pape could be wrong.

Iran’s leadership may decide that a spectacular mass-casualty attack would guarantee overwhelming retaliation and threaten the regime’s survival.

Iranian capabilities may have been damaged more severely than outside observers understand.

American and allied intelligence may disrupt planned attacks.

Backchannel negotiations may produce an offramp.

Internal divisions may restrain Iranian decision-makers.

And…no individual expert…no matter how experienced…can predict the behavior of governments with certainty.

We should also be careful with headlines announcing that an attack is coming.

Pape is making a strategic forecast…not reporting an intercepted operational order.

That distinction is vital.

But dismissing the warning because it is not certain…would be just as irresponsible as treating it as prophecy.

Risk assessment is not fortune-telling.

It is the process…of recognizing what an adversary is capable of doing…what incentives it faces…and what indicators would tell us the danger is increasing.

THE INDICATORS I WOULD WATCH

Here is what matters now:

Changes in protection levels at American military installations.

Watch for unusual restrictions…dispersal of personnel…canceled leave…movement of defensive systems or public warnings to military families.

Evacuations from embassies and diplomatic facilities.

Governments sometimes reduce staff before acknowledging the full reason publicly.

Warnings involving shipping, aviation or energy infrastructure.

A sudden change in official guidance…may indicate intelligence about a specific threat stream.

Movement by Iranian proxy organizations.

Watch for coordinated rhetoric…mobilization or a shift from symbolic attacks…toward operations intended to produce large numbers of casualties.

Changes in the language coming from Tehran.

There is a difference between promising retaliation…and framing mass death as a necessary or legitimate response.

American preparations for ground operations.

Logistics reveal intent. Fuel…transport aircraft…medical capacity…engineering units and force protection often tell us more than speeches.

A narrowing of diplomatic options.

When governments stop talking about terms…and begin talking exclusively about victory…punishment and credibility…the room for error becomes dangerously small.

No single indicator proves that an attack is imminent.

But several…moving together…would constitute a signal.

Paper.

Personnel.

Operations.

That is when concern should rise sharply.

CONTINUITY

The American public has been trained to experience war as a series of isolated headlines.

A strike.

A retaliation.

A briefing.

A funeral.

A promise.

Then…the news cycle moves on.

But…the enemy does not experience these events separately.

Neither should we.

Every action changes the menu of possible reactions.

Every death creates pressure.

Every public commitment makes retreat more difficult.

Every escalation increases the political cost of restraint.

That is why continuity matters.

The question is not merely what happened today.

The question…is what today makes more likely tomorrow.

Pape’s warning should be understood in that context.

He is not saying Iran possesses magical powers.

He is saying the strategic incentives…created by this war…may now reward an attempt to produce American mass casualties.

And if that happens…our leaders will face…the most consequential decisions of the entire conflict…at precisely the moment when the country is least emotionally capable of making them carefully.

IDENTITY

This is where we decide what kind of citizens we intend to be.

Fearful citizens demand certainty where none exists.

Partisan citizens accept whatever their side tells them.

Passive citizens wait for the explosion…and then discover that every decision has already been made for them.

Oriented citizens do something different.

They study the warning.

They separate evidence…from speculation.

They watch the indicators.

They refuse to be manipulated by either complacency or panic.

And…when violence comes…they do not surrender their judgment to the loudest person in the room.

That is our responsibility now.

Not to predict the exact location of an attack.

Not to spread rumors.

Not to frighten our neighbors.

But…to understand the strategic environment…before events begin moving too quickly to understand.

Robert Pape may be wrong about what comes next.

I sincerely hope he is.

But..he has given us a warning…based on decades of studying the point where bombing campaigns…occupation…political coercion…and terrorism collide.

We would be fools to ignore it.

Don’t panic.

Pay attention.

And watch what moves next.

What I’m watching now

I will be closely tracking force-protection changes…embassy activity…proxy mobilization…threats to shipping…signs of American ground preparation…and…any movement toward…or away…from…a negotiated offramp.

Those indicators will tell us whether Pape’s warning is merely one possible scenario…

Or…the outline of what is already beginning.

#HoldFast

Back soon.

-Jack

Jack Hopkins

P.S. If you take one thing from this, don't let it be fear. Fear is the resource an adversary is counting on harvesting. Let it be this instead: decide now…while you're calm…what you'll require of your leaders before you support the next escalation. Because you will not be able to think clearly about it afterward. Nobody can. That's the entire point of the attack after the attack.

Oh, and you can check out Pape’s Substack, here Robert Pape's Substack

SOURCES

Primary source — the interview

• Steven Bartlett, The Diary of a CEO, “Iran War Expert: A Mass Casualty Attack Is Coming!” featuring Robert Pape — YouTube | Apple Podcasts (released July 23, 2026)

• Full transcript of the episode — Singju Post (third-party transcript; useful for locating quotes, not an official record)

• Episode summary and chapter timeline — Phil’s Stock World

Who Robert Pape is

• Robert A. Pape — faculty page, Department of Political Science, University of Chicago

• The Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST) — the research center Pape founded in 2004 and directs

• CPOST overview, University of Chicago

The books referenced

• Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War (Cornell University Press, 1996)

• Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism (Random House, 2005)

• Cutting the Fuse: The Explosion of Global Suicide Terrorism and How to Stop It, with James K. Feldman (University of Chicago Press, 2010)

(Full publication list on his UChicago faculty page.)

The earlier interviews — how the forecast developed

Pape has been on this beat for months, and the through-line matters more than any single episode.

• “I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years” — DOAC, March 12, 2026. Where the “escalation trap” framing was first laid out.

• “The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now” — DOAC, April 13, 2026. On remaining off-ramps and the ground-war threshold.

Additional reporting and coverage

• “Pape on Iran: ‘We’re the Titanic About to Hit Iceberg’; Thousands of Casualties Possible” — Newsmax, July 16, 2026

• “Robert Pape to Newsmax: ‘No Doubt’ Trump ‘Underestimated Iran’” — Newsmax, July 19, 2026

• “U.S. Faces 70% Probability of Iran Ground War Within Weeks” — BigGo Finance, July 2026

A note on sourcing: Pape is making a strategic forecast based on modeling and decades of research, not reporting classified intelligence or an intercepted operational order. Everything above is publicly available…and I’d encourage you to watch the full interview and not just my summary of it. Where I’ve characterized his argument…the transcript is linked so you can check me.