Todd...that bar sign is the whole administration in four words.
You're not alone in where you've landed. When the Ayatollah's public rhetoric matches the material reality on the ground...and the President's doesn't...the credibility ledger UPDATES... whether we want it to...or not. That's not partisanship. That's PATTERN RECOGNITION.
The uncomfortable truth most won't say out loud: you don't have to trust Iran...to believe Iran...over Trump on this one. You just have to notice whose words have been MATCHING the facts.
"Two weeks" is this administration's signature time horizon...and it isn't a coincidence.
Two weeks is far enough out that today's news cycle moves on BEFORE anyone checks the receipt...and....close enough to sound like action.
Healthcare in two weeks. Infrastructure in two weeks. Tax plan in two weeks. Ukraine peace in two weeks. Iran deal in two weeks. Rinse...repeat...move on.
MSM...treating the Strait announcement as an "exciting development" is exactly how the cycle keeps running. The blockade is STILL/BACK on. Enrichment is still contested. Khamenei hasn't walked back a word. But...the chyron needs a win at 6pm...so a win gets manufactured...out of a SINGLE unilateral Iranian concession that Trump didn't reciprocate.
Keeping it in focus is the whole job. Thank you for reading closely enough to notice!
Well Jack, methinks "A bright And Shining Lie", just the title comes to mind; another book of the truth; and here's the part that just pisses me off into low earth orbit; this Liar is leading our nation into another Depression. Our allies see the truth and they are not buying it. It's a crazy, upside down world Jack. Our heroes are Volodimir Zelensky and Mark Carney and our president is a laughing stock with a pervasive foul odor upon a bed of lies while our Danish brothers and sisters cry out at demonstration "we want our big brother back". Our nation is engaged in another "no win" situation at the behest of one man. We will live to see the end of this insanity...
Let me guess...truth- Iran, Lies- US. If I had to hold talks with Just Dancing, I would be arrested because I would slap his lying, hypocritical face. Until the US hires skilled diplomats, doctors of physics, scientists, historians, and geological scientists, there is no reason to meet. We need adults in the room and JD, Witcoff, and SIL aren't it. They are an embarrassing disgrace. Until TT stops mimicking and ridiculing their religion...Ayatollah won't engage. Respect, decency, and truth go a long way.
Jo...you got the headline exactly right...and the second half of your note is the part NOBODY at a cable news desk will say out loud.
Diplomacy with a nuclear-threshold state isn't a vibe. It's a DISCIPLINE requires people who have spent careers reading Farsi...tracking IAEA inspection protocols...understanding the physics of cascade enrichment...and knowing the difference...between Shia theological authority...and Sunni political structure.
It requires historians...who can tell you what 1953 means to an Iranian in a room...and scientists...who can tell you what a 60% stockpile can become in six weeks.
What we have instead is a real estate developer's son-in-law...a real estate developer's golf buddy...and a Vice President...whose public diplomacy move...was saying the ball is in their court. That isn't a negotiating team. That's a LINKEDIN PROFILE.
You put your finger on the deeper one, too.
Respect is a PRECONDITION...not a reward. Khamenei isn't going to engage seriously ...with a counterpart who mocks his faith on social media at 2am. That isn't stubbornness. That's a MINIMAL human requirement.
Respect...decency...and truth go a long way. The absence of all three goes a long way too...just in a different direction.
You certainly clarified what I suspected. Especially the absurd demand that Iran stop its nuclear enrichment program. I wish they didn’t have one, but now that they do, diplomacy is the only way out. Dealing with the Trump administration would be like trying to teach dinosaurs English. So I don’t know where we will be in the next few days.
The wish...and the reality...are two different ledgers. You can wish Iran didn't have an enrichment program...and still recognize that once a program exists...the only path that doesn't end in a mushroom cloud...runs through a negotiating table.
Those aren't contradictory positions. That's ADULT foreign policy.
The problem...and you named it...is that adult foreign policy requires an adult on the OTHER end of the phone. "Teaching dinosaurs English" is the cleanest summary of this administration's diplomatic capacity I've read all week.
Where we'll be in the next few days depends ENTIRELY on whether anyone in that White House is willing to let Iran keep the one thing Iran cannot give up. My bet is no. Which is why I wrote what I wrote.
This was another great piece, Jack. I've felt like this administration were the liars the entire time. It's all about the way Trump talks, and the analogy of a car salesman fits well to describe ALL of them. The whole damn administration.
You posed the question of why. Imho, the administration keeps lying and stretching things out is because they haven't fully drained the Treasury of US funds. At least not yet. The responses of Stephen Miller during his committee hearing this week were REALLY important. Jamie Raskin (not that I have a lot of faith in him, either) brought the receipts concerning a $4.2 BILLION dollar wire transfer from the Treasury to an offshore account that was formed 3 weeks before this transfer occurred. Raskin also had evidence that Miller had been structuring payments before and after the large payment. Structuring is a big no-no in both Sections 26 and 31 of the US Code. (Section 26 is the one that governs the IRS, and Section 31 is the primary one that governs the Bank Secrecy Act/Anti-Money Laundering provisions.) Miller had his attorney with him, and at the very end, he refused to answer Raskin's questions and asserted his 5th Amendment rights. And we all know what that means.
One thing I've noticed is that Iran is not attempting to appeal to the members of the silent generation that are still alive. They're not trying to appeal to the boomers, or Gen X, or the Millennials. The Lego TikTok short productions are geared to Gen Z and Gen Alpha. Why? Because Gen Z and Gen Alpha are really the first generations to be internet savvy, and are able to have a larger vision of world events. That was made pretty clear by the protests online, as well as on college campuses to bring attention to the plight of the Palestinians.
So, I'm still not sure where all of this will end up, but my gut is telling me it's not going to be good.
Thank you Jack for quickly catching me up to what is going on. Nothing good.
I am going to ignore the approaching Hell for a couple more days. My broken femur is healing, and I can walk without a cane. ( I am worth more now than before my mishap to the tune of a couple of titanium rods.) Today I am hosting a few dozen people to celebrate the life of the best man I have ever known, my husband. Then I will collapse for one more day and then get my act together.
You know, trump did tell one truth in all the flying fecal material. He said we would accept nothing but Iran's unconditional surrender and that is what Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest have been demanding, no matter how nice they wrapped it up and tied the bow.
And Bibi hasn't finished destroying Lebanon and Palestine. It is funny that the big excuse for Iran from trump and bourbon breath is they have been trying to kill us for 47 years. I was alive back then but don't truly remember Iran invading us.
Sue...today belongs to him. Host well. Let the room see the woman he loved. Everything else can wait.
And...when you collapse...tomorrow...collapse all the way. The femur is healing...the rods are doing their work...and you're walking without the cane. That's not recovery. That's RECONSTRUCTION.
You caught what most analysts missed, Sue. Trump did tell one truth...the "unconditional surrender" line. Everything since has been that same demand in prettier wrapping. You saw through it in a paragraph.
And the "47 years" line...I was alive then, too. I don't remember Iran invading us either. What I do remember from the history books, however, is that in 1953, the elected government we overthrew to install the Shah. Funny how that part never makes the podium.
Take the two days. Take three. The line will still need holding when you're back!
Trump meant what he said years back referring to our military as "suckers and losers." He and the cadre don't care as long as there's money to be made.
The people defending him now...were standing next to him when he said it. That's not a rumor. That's a RECORD.
You named the engine: as long as there's money to be made...the people making it don't care whose kid comes home in a flag. The contractor filings don't flinch. The stock prices don't blink. Somebody's son dies for a barrel of crude...and somebody else's grandson gets a BONUS. That...is the operation.
God help us is right. But God helps those paying attention...and you're doing that part.
Jack… I was never “ nodding along.” At this point, I trust what Iran is saying far more than I do the lies coming out of Washington.
Iran will never agree to their demands. Trump and company will either walk away losers and find a way to spin it or this thing will escalate to a point I don’t even want to think about.
I don’t really know where it goes from here but I know what to watch for, thanks to you and I appreciate that.
#Holdfast
~Susan
PS. Our military is rationing food and personal supplies while they wait and that tells me things about how this is being handled that truly concern me.
Trump is not capable of telling the truth. Sadly his lies become his reality. I honestly think he believes the "truths" he spews out there. I saw the markets rallying, reports of oil prices dropping in parallel with reports of no ceasefire in Lebanon, and no deals with Iran. It is tragic how little Trump has done to make America great. Every policy is another gut punch, human rights, environmental protections, health care, housing, a senseless war, the list goes on. I will continue to #Holdfast just some days are harder than others.
You hit the mark Jack. Iran has been planning for this for 40+ years, they aren't backing down because their plan is working. They are going to frustrate their opponent until the opponent gives up and goes away. And they have the geography and systems in place to do it. Trump's crime syndicate did no research, ignored history and had no strategic plan to approach this. They are never going to come out on top of this and the citizens are paying the price. Somehow we have to find a way to force them to quit.
So interesting because Christian Nationalists and BB have been waiting patiently for the day a person like Trump would show up. America needs to pack up and come home.
A note on tonight's issue.
Some of you will have noticed that Iran announced this morning the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" for commercial traffic.
I wrote the article anyway. On purpose.
Because here's what actually changed today: Iran made an announcement.
Trump kept the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports in "full force."
Enrichment is still on the table.
The stockpile is still in Iran.
The proxy funding hasn't stopped.
Khamenei hasn't walked back a single word.
The Ayatollah still considers Trump unworthy of a response.
In other words...nothing that matters has moved.
I wrote tonight's issue from the baseline of where we actually are. Not from where a morning press release says we are.
Because in almost every respect that counts…we are still exactly where we were yesterday.
And the announcement of an "open Strait" without a lifted blockade is not de-escalation.
It's one side giving ground while the other doesn't.
Which is exactly what I told you to watch for.
Read it from that baseline.
Because that's the baseline we're still operating from.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Iran closed the strait again, what a shock. Your analysis is right on target.
Now that trump and his oligarch buddies MADE MORE MONEY from trump's closing the Strait of Hormuz....
And the American taxpayers PAID MORE MONEY from trump's closing the Strait of Hormuz....
trump WILL declare Victory!
VOTE 'EM ALL OUT!!!
It’s funny that you wrote this article, because I’ve been thinking the same thing. I’m at the point where I believe Iran’s statements over Trump’s.
Trump reminds me of the joke sign you may see in a bar: “Free drinks tomorrow“.
Todd...that bar sign is the whole administration in four words.
You're not alone in where you've landed. When the Ayatollah's public rhetoric matches the material reality on the ground...and the President's doesn't...the credibility ledger UPDATES... whether we want it to...or not. That's not partisanship. That's PATTERN RECOGNITION.
The uncomfortable truth most won't say out loud: you don't have to trust Iran...to believe Iran...over Trump on this one. You just have to notice whose words have been MATCHING the facts.
Free drinks tomorrow. For a year running!
#HoldFast
-Jack
Perfect!
And MSM is discussing this as an exciting development. How many times has he told us (fill-in the blank) is coming in two weeks?
Thanks for keeping the situation in focus for us!!
BG...you caught the tell.
"Two weeks" is this administration's signature time horizon...and it isn't a coincidence.
Two weeks is far enough out that today's news cycle moves on BEFORE anyone checks the receipt...and....close enough to sound like action.
Healthcare in two weeks. Infrastructure in two weeks. Tax plan in two weeks. Ukraine peace in two weeks. Iran deal in two weeks. Rinse...repeat...move on.
MSM...treating the Strait announcement as an "exciting development" is exactly how the cycle keeps running. The blockade is STILL/BACK on. Enrichment is still contested. Khamenei hasn't walked back a word. But...the chyron needs a win at 6pm...so a win gets manufactured...out of a SINGLE unilateral Iranian concession that Trump didn't reciprocate.
Keeping it in focus is the whole job. Thank you for reading closely enough to notice!
#HoldFast
-Jack
And the strait is closed again! I’m shocked! Someone combined the words to “clopen”. Pretty accurate.
Well Jack, methinks "A bright And Shining Lie", just the title comes to mind; another book of the truth; and here's the part that just pisses me off into low earth orbit; this Liar is leading our nation into another Depression. Our allies see the truth and they are not buying it. It's a crazy, upside down world Jack. Our heroes are Volodimir Zelensky and Mark Carney and our president is a laughing stock with a pervasive foul odor upon a bed of lies while our Danish brothers and sisters cry out at demonstration "we want our big brother back". Our nation is engaged in another "no win" situation at the behest of one man. We will live to see the end of this insanity...
Please be it so.
Let me guess...truth- Iran, Lies- US. If I had to hold talks with Just Dancing, I would be arrested because I would slap his lying, hypocritical face. Until the US hires skilled diplomats, doctors of physics, scientists, historians, and geological scientists, there is no reason to meet. We need adults in the room and JD, Witcoff, and SIL aren't it. They are an embarrassing disgrace. Until TT stops mimicking and ridiculing their religion...Ayatollah won't engage. Respect, decency, and truth go a long way.
Jo...you got the headline exactly right...and the second half of your note is the part NOBODY at a cable news desk will say out loud.
Diplomacy with a nuclear-threshold state isn't a vibe. It's a DISCIPLINE requires people who have spent careers reading Farsi...tracking IAEA inspection protocols...understanding the physics of cascade enrichment...and knowing the difference...between Shia theological authority...and Sunni political structure.
It requires historians...who can tell you what 1953 means to an Iranian in a room...and scientists...who can tell you what a 60% stockpile can become in six weeks.
What we have instead is a real estate developer's son-in-law...a real estate developer's golf buddy...and a Vice President...whose public diplomacy move...was saying the ball is in their court. That isn't a negotiating team. That's a LINKEDIN PROFILE.
You put your finger on the deeper one, too.
Respect is a PRECONDITION...not a reward. Khamenei isn't going to engage seriously ...with a counterpart who mocks his faith on social media at 2am. That isn't stubbornness. That's a MINIMAL human requirement.
Respect...decency...and truth go a long way. The absence of all three goes a long way too...just in a different direction.
#HoldFast
-Jack
#HoldFast
You certainly clarified what I suspected. Especially the absurd demand that Iran stop its nuclear enrichment program. I wish they didn’t have one, but now that they do, diplomacy is the only way out. Dealing with the Trump administration would be like trying to teach dinosaurs English. So I don’t know where we will be in the next few days.
Sara...that's exactly it!
The wish...and the reality...are two different ledgers. You can wish Iran didn't have an enrichment program...and still recognize that once a program exists...the only path that doesn't end in a mushroom cloud...runs through a negotiating table.
Those aren't contradictory positions. That's ADULT foreign policy.
The problem...and you named it...is that adult foreign policy requires an adult on the OTHER end of the phone. "Teaching dinosaurs English" is the cleanest summary of this administration's diplomatic capacity I've read all week.
Where we'll be in the next few days depends ENTIRELY on whether anyone in that White House is willing to let Iran keep the one thing Iran cannot give up. My bet is no. Which is why I wrote what I wrote.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Jack, you wrote “the market does not lie”. I will add, if you don’t mind, ‘though a MANIPULATED market may deceive’.
PERFECT, Mary E! That...it does.
-Jack
This was another great piece, Jack. I've felt like this administration were the liars the entire time. It's all about the way Trump talks, and the analogy of a car salesman fits well to describe ALL of them. The whole damn administration.
You posed the question of why. Imho, the administration keeps lying and stretching things out is because they haven't fully drained the Treasury of US funds. At least not yet. The responses of Stephen Miller during his committee hearing this week were REALLY important. Jamie Raskin (not that I have a lot of faith in him, either) brought the receipts concerning a $4.2 BILLION dollar wire transfer from the Treasury to an offshore account that was formed 3 weeks before this transfer occurred. Raskin also had evidence that Miller had been structuring payments before and after the large payment. Structuring is a big no-no in both Sections 26 and 31 of the US Code. (Section 26 is the one that governs the IRS, and Section 31 is the primary one that governs the Bank Secrecy Act/Anti-Money Laundering provisions.) Miller had his attorney with him, and at the very end, he refused to answer Raskin's questions and asserted his 5th Amendment rights. And we all know what that means.
One thing I've noticed is that Iran is not attempting to appeal to the members of the silent generation that are still alive. They're not trying to appeal to the boomers, or Gen X, or the Millennials. The Lego TikTok short productions are geared to Gen Z and Gen Alpha. Why? Because Gen Z and Gen Alpha are really the first generations to be internet savvy, and are able to have a larger vision of world events. That was made pretty clear by the protests online, as well as on college campuses to bring attention to the plight of the Palestinians.
So, I'm still not sure where all of this will end up, but my gut is telling me it's not going to be good.
Thanks again, Jack. #Holdfast
Thank you Jack for quickly catching me up to what is going on. Nothing good.
I am going to ignore the approaching Hell for a couple more days. My broken femur is healing, and I can walk without a cane. ( I am worth more now than before my mishap to the tune of a couple of titanium rods.) Today I am hosting a few dozen people to celebrate the life of the best man I have ever known, my husband. Then I will collapse for one more day and then get my act together.
You know, trump did tell one truth in all the flying fecal material. He said we would accept nothing but Iran's unconditional surrender and that is what Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest have been demanding, no matter how nice they wrapped it up and tied the bow.
And Bibi hasn't finished destroying Lebanon and Palestine. It is funny that the big excuse for Iran from trump and bourbon breath is they have been trying to kill us for 47 years. I was alive back then but don't truly remember Iran invading us.
#HoldFast
Sue
.
Sue...today belongs to him. Host well. Let the room see the woman he loved. Everything else can wait.
And...when you collapse...tomorrow...collapse all the way. The femur is healing...the rods are doing their work...and you're walking without the cane. That's not recovery. That's RECONSTRUCTION.
You caught what most analysts missed, Sue. Trump did tell one truth...the "unconditional surrender" line. Everything since has been that same demand in prettier wrapping. You saw through it in a paragraph.
And the "47 years" line...I was alive then, too. I don't remember Iran invading us either. What I do remember from the history books, however, is that in 1953, the elected government we overthrew to install the Shah. Funny how that part never makes the podium.
Take the two days. Take three. The line will still need holding when you're back!
#HoldFast
-Jack
Sue, I hope your recovery is speedy
It truly has been. One month and doing pretty good, thanks.
Way to go Sue. Thinking of you today, as you celebrate your hubby’s life.❤️
TGIF, Jack,to you and All of your readers. Great piece tonight, and will reStack ASAP 💯👍
Thank you, Karen Scofield!
-Jack
No “theocracy” does that, regardless of the doctrine. #HoldFast #FightOn
Fight on...indeed, Shelia!
-Jack
Trump meant what he said years back referring to our military as "suckers and losers." He and the cadre don't care as long as there's money to be made.
God help us.
#Hold Fast
Raymond...he said it in front of witnesses.
The people defending him now...were standing next to him when he said it. That's not a rumor. That's a RECORD.
You named the engine: as long as there's money to be made...the people making it don't care whose kid comes home in a flag. The contractor filings don't flinch. The stock prices don't blink. Somebody's son dies for a barrel of crude...and somebody else's grandson gets a BONUS. That...is the operation.
God help us is right. But God helps those paying attention...and you're doing that part.
#HoldFast
-Jack
Jack… I was never “ nodding along.” At this point, I trust what Iran is saying far more than I do the lies coming out of Washington.
Iran will never agree to their demands. Trump and company will either walk away losers and find a way to spin it or this thing will escalate to a point I don’t even want to think about.
I don’t really know where it goes from here but I know what to watch for, thanks to you and I appreciate that.
#Holdfast
~Susan
PS. Our military is rationing food and personal supplies while they wait and that tells me things about how this is being handled that truly concern me.
Your last comment about not taking care of our military - I am in total agreement.
Trump is not capable of telling the truth. Sadly his lies become his reality. I honestly think he believes the "truths" he spews out there. I saw the markets rallying, reports of oil prices dropping in parallel with reports of no ceasefire in Lebanon, and no deals with Iran. It is tragic how little Trump has done to make America great. Every policy is another gut punch, human rights, environmental protections, health care, housing, a senseless war, the list goes on. I will continue to #Holdfast just some days are harder than others.
You hit the mark Jack. Iran has been planning for this for 40+ years, they aren't backing down because their plan is working. They are going to frustrate their opponent until the opponent gives up and goes away. And they have the geography and systems in place to do it. Trump's crime syndicate did no research, ignored history and had no strategic plan to approach this. They are never going to come out on top of this and the citizens are paying the price. Somehow we have to find a way to force them to quit.
So interesting because Christian Nationalists and BB have been waiting patiently for the day a person like Trump would show up. America needs to pack up and come home.