The next few days are critical. If this blows up the ordinary man will revolt due to no insurance and no food. Some of these that will be hurt the most probably have more ammo than food and won’t hesitate to use it as their families mean more than the government.
You’re right, Teri... the next few days matter. When real-world pain hits...insurance lapsing...food programs tightening...public pressure on Congress explodes. But most people won't turn to violence. What usually happens is lawmakers hit their breaking point first...because the political cost becomes impossible to ignore.
You could have bowled me over with a feather 🪶 when I read that trump wants the House called back into session😲 he's getting the hint. Happy Halloween 🎃 Jack, to you and your readers and will reStack ASAP 💯👍👻
Great question, Sheila. Here’s the straight answer:
Right now...the Senate math is simple: Republicans hold the majority...but that doesn’t automatically mean 51 votes for the nuclear option.
Even within the GOP caucus...there are senators who have publicly signaled discomfort with eliminating the filibuster...not because of the shutdown itself...but because they know it would permanently weaken the Senate as an institution.
Several members have warned it would “come back to haunt” whichever party triggers it.
So yes...it’s absolutely possible some GOP senators would hold out.
Historically...rule changes of this magnitude tend to make even loyal partisans hesitate.
The pressure will be enormous...but getting to 51 is not guaranteed.
You're welcome, Robyn. Before Trump...I wasn't crystal clear about it, either. Trump has forced me to learn a lot of things...that I may otherwise have never known with the clarity I do today.
This is sort of in line with my usual non sequiturs, but I remember well when ATC went on strike and were promptly fired by Ronnie the Popular: I was flying sport craft at the time based at a small field 11 miles from SFO, at the time what’s called the TCA (terminal control area) was a lot less restrictive- it’s like an inverted wedding cake of airspace surrounding major airport and more seriously controlled the closer in you get.
So when the controllers were gone it was sort of like a free-for-all, but it seems skill and discipline stepped up and I do believe made better flyers of all who participated. (Well, except for one asshole helicopter pilot) I don’t know why I thought of this, maybe we can spin it into “from the wreckage we step up” sort of story. Unfortunately, I don’t know if people are even capable of that anymore.
This is a fantastic story, Randy...and a perfect analogy.
When the ATC strike hit...the structure disappeared overnight. The rules were gone...the guardrails went quiet...and suddenly everyone had to decide who they were without someone holding their hand.
What you described...skill and discipline stepping up...is exactly what tends to happen when systems break. The people who care...who take responsibility...who stay alert…they rise. They always have.
But I get what you’re saying about today. The culture feels more numbed-out...more distracted...more brittle. Yet I still believe the same principle holds: when the guardrails fall, the serious people show up...even if it’s a smaller group than it used to be.
And honestly?
That’s the story I am trying to tell in this moment:
From the wreckage...someone always steps up.
Someone always refuses to be sloppy.
Someone always keeps the standard.
Maybe we can't count on everyone anymore...but we can count on the ones who refuse to let the whole thing fall apart.
It’s definitely possible, James. Once a shutdown hits real pressure points...insurance...food programs...travel delays...lawmakers usually scramble for an off-ramp. If those stressors spike in the next two weeks...November 21st is a realistic window for Congress to finally move.
I think that when people using Obamacare start getting their increased insurance rates that they will start contacting their senators and congressman to demand they do something. If they do what do you think will happen?
That’s a sharp observation, Dayna...and you’re right about one thing: the minute real-world costs hit people directly...the pressure on Congress changes fast.
If folks on ACA plans start seeing big jumps in their premiums...what usually happens is:
*They call their senators and reps
*Offices start logging those calls
*Staffers flag the surge
*Leadership suddenly sees a “constituent risk” instead of an abstract policy issue
And when that happens?
The dynamics inside Congress often shift from ideology → damage control.
Even lawmakers who were digging in their heels start looking for an off-ramp...a patch...or at least a message that keeps them from being blamed for the pain.
So if a wave of people start contacting their representatives about insurance spikes...the most likely outcome isn’t instant action...it’s political self-preservation kicking in...which has a funny way of forcing movement...where there wasn’t any before.
I hope they do start calling. I believe the republicans will start jumping to the other side. I have said all along that they were going to fool around and let the shutdown go on too long and people would start seeing their insurance rate hikes and revolt.
Everything you wrote is exactly what is going on now & what it means!!!!
This is definitely a planned shutdown: Trump has others breathing down his neck..their ALL in the Epstien Files. The banks and the bankers themselves.. Big money people....The 47-Git is upping .the distractions by miles:
The destruction of the East wing, with no planning or media beforehand.
the threats are coming out of Trump with more frequency & getting more tyrant talking points!
Nov 1- a threat of going to war with Nigeria...
Every day Trump ups the dictatorship anty ....he will keep getting worse until something seriously cracks to keep the Epstien Files CLOSED..a martial law event a war, Or who knows what.
For all the reasons that you’ve mentioned, this shutdown is a gift to the administration.
Working in an immigration law, everything has been shut down. To our surprise, the department of labor’s website opened up yesterday for the processing of particular types of immigration benefits. I thought this might signal the shut down coming to an end, but not so. There’s a lot that plays into their agenda that they can accomplish during the shutdown and they are loving that. It has a feel to it like operating on the dark web.
The next few days are critical. If this blows up the ordinary man will revolt due to no insurance and no food. Some of these that will be hurt the most probably have more ammo than food and won’t hesitate to use it as their families mean more than the government.
You’re right, Teri... the next few days matter. When real-world pain hits...insurance lapsing...food programs tightening...public pressure on Congress explodes. But most people won't turn to violence. What usually happens is lawmakers hit their breaking point first...because the political cost becomes impossible to ignore.
-Jack
fingers crossed some have the balls to say enough!
Food has been ordered by two different judges, I think. Just in the last little while.
The question is will they do as ordered as the current trend is to ignore the courts if they do not like the order..sad
Indeed. Breaks my heart.
You could have bowled me over with a feather 🪶 when I read that trump wants the House called back into session😲 he's getting the hint. Happy Halloween 🎃 Jack, to you and your readers and will reStack ASAP 💯👍👻
Happy Halloween to you as well!
Keep this in mind, Karen...he doesn't want them back because he suddenly cares about the shutdown...or federal workers..or the damage being done.
He wants them back because:
*He’s trying to create pressure from both chambers at once
*He wants the House to publicly echo his demand for the Senate to use the nuclear option
*He’s manufacturing a sense of “urgency” to justify blowing up the filibuster
In other words:
It's not a move toward compromise...it's a move to tighten the vise.
He’s trying to force a narrative:
“Look, even the House is back and demanding action...so why won’t the Senate eliminate the filibuster?”
It’s pressure politics...not governance.
And the timing...Day 30...is not a coincidence.
-Jack
Always making sense out of the nonsense 👻Happy Halloween,my Substack friend. 🎃
In your humble opinion, what’s the likelihood the Senate would vote 51 for him - would any GOP Senators hold out?
Great question, Sheila. Here’s the straight answer:
Right now...the Senate math is simple: Republicans hold the majority...but that doesn’t automatically mean 51 votes for the nuclear option.
Even within the GOP caucus...there are senators who have publicly signaled discomfort with eliminating the filibuster...not because of the shutdown itself...but because they know it would permanently weaken the Senate as an institution.
Several members have warned it would “come back to haunt” whichever party triggers it.
So yes...it’s absolutely possible some GOP senators would hold out.
Historically...rule changes of this magnitude tend to make even loyal partisans hesitate.
The pressure will be enormous...but getting to 51 is not guaranteed.
-Jack
Thanks for this, Jack! I didn't understand the filibuster, nuclear option. Learned something important today.
You're welcome, Robyn. Before Trump...I wasn't crystal clear about it, either. Trump has forced me to learn a lot of things...that I may otherwise have never known with the clarity I do today.
-Jack
We need more GOP senators to fracture off the body, or start talking like they might.
Agreed, Tom. I'd settle for some vigorous talk...for a start. I really would.
-Jack
This is sort of in line with my usual non sequiturs, but I remember well when ATC went on strike and were promptly fired by Ronnie the Popular: I was flying sport craft at the time based at a small field 11 miles from SFO, at the time what’s called the TCA (terminal control area) was a lot less restrictive- it’s like an inverted wedding cake of airspace surrounding major airport and more seriously controlled the closer in you get.
So when the controllers were gone it was sort of like a free-for-all, but it seems skill and discipline stepped up and I do believe made better flyers of all who participated. (Well, except for one asshole helicopter pilot) I don’t know why I thought of this, maybe we can spin it into “from the wreckage we step up” sort of story. Unfortunately, I don’t know if people are even capable of that anymore.
This is a fantastic story, Randy...and a perfect analogy.
When the ATC strike hit...the structure disappeared overnight. The rules were gone...the guardrails went quiet...and suddenly everyone had to decide who they were without someone holding their hand.
What you described...skill and discipline stepping up...is exactly what tends to happen when systems break. The people who care...who take responsibility...who stay alert…they rise. They always have.
But I get what you’re saying about today. The culture feels more numbed-out...more distracted...more brittle. Yet I still believe the same principle holds: when the guardrails fall, the serious people show up...even if it’s a smaller group than it used to be.
And honestly?
That’s the story I am trying to tell in this moment:
From the wreckage...someone always steps up.
Someone always refuses to be sloppy.
Someone always keeps the standard.
Maybe we can't count on everyone anymore...but we can count on the ones who refuse to let the whole thing fall apart.
And that’s who’s here.
-Jack
I commented above, then promptly forgot what I came here to say. LOL
Maybe it’s time for a wee nap.
It happens...lol. A nap is well deserved...I'm sure of it.
-Jack
Much better. Thanks.
This shutdown will end on or before November 21st...
It’s definitely possible, James. Once a shutdown hits real pressure points...insurance...food programs...travel delays...lawmakers usually scramble for an off-ramp. If those stressors spike in the next two weeks...November 21st is a realistic window for Congress to finally move.
-Jack
I think that when people using Obamacare start getting their increased insurance rates that they will start contacting their senators and congressman to demand they do something. If they do what do you think will happen?
That’s a sharp observation, Dayna...and you’re right about one thing: the minute real-world costs hit people directly...the pressure on Congress changes fast.
If folks on ACA plans start seeing big jumps in their premiums...what usually happens is:
*They call their senators and reps
*Offices start logging those calls
*Staffers flag the surge
*Leadership suddenly sees a “constituent risk” instead of an abstract policy issue
And when that happens?
The dynamics inside Congress often shift from ideology → damage control.
Even lawmakers who were digging in their heels start looking for an off-ramp...a patch...or at least a message that keeps them from being blamed for the pain.
So if a wave of people start contacting their representatives about insurance spikes...the most likely outcome isn’t instant action...it’s political self-preservation kicking in...which has a funny way of forcing movement...where there wasn’t any before.
-Jack
I hope they do start calling. I believe the republicans will start jumping to the other side. I have said all along that they were going to fool around and let the shutdown go on too long and people would start seeing their insurance rate hikes and revolt.
Everything you wrote is exactly what is going on now & what it means!!!!
This is definitely a planned shutdown: Trump has others breathing down his neck..their ALL in the Epstien Files. The banks and the bankers themselves.. Big money people....The 47-Git is upping .the distractions by miles:
The destruction of the East wing, with no planning or media beforehand.
the threats are coming out of Trump with more frequency & getting more tyrant talking points!
Nov 1- a threat of going to war with Nigeria...
Every day Trump ups the dictatorship anty ....he will keep getting worse until something seriously cracks to keep the Epstien Files CLOSED..a martial law event a war, Or who knows what.
For all the reasons that you’ve mentioned, this shutdown is a gift to the administration.
Working in an immigration law, everything has been shut down. To our surprise, the department of labor’s website opened up yesterday for the processing of particular types of immigration benefits. I thought this might signal the shut down coming to an end, but not so. There’s a lot that plays into their agenda that they can accomplish during the shutdown and they are loving that. It has a feel to it like operating on the dark web.