The 20th Strike: What the Caribbean Flashpoints Reveal About America’s Drift Toward Conflict

Why the “drug boat” killings are a legal minefield, why Venezuela is the likeliest flashpoint, and how the rest of the world is already choosing sides.

The 20th Strike: What the Caribbean Flashpoints Reveal About America’s Drift Toward Conflict

Why the “drug boat” killings are a legal minefield, why Venezuela is the likeliest flashpoint, and how the rest of the world is already choosing sides.

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #647: Friday, November 14th, 2025.

CONFIDENTIAL BRIEFING

When a great power starts killing people on small boats in blue water far from home, and it keeps doing it…again…and again…and again…don’t get lost in the press releases. Look at the pattern.

Not long ago, a Pentagon official confirmed the United States carried out its 20th lethal strike on an alleged drug-trafficking vessel…this time in the Caribbean.

Four people were killed. No survivors. That is the official line. Not a Coast Guard chase. Not a warning shot. A strike. A kill. And it makes twenty. Reuters

If you’re hearing about “narco-terrorists” and “precision engagements,” remember: language is policy. And policy becomes precedent. Precedent becomes the new normal.

Piece by piece…America is normalizing lethal maritime interdictions…some in the Caribbean…others in the Eastern Pacific…under a self-styled “armed conflict” construct against transnational criminal groups.

Across this fall alone…multiple strikes killed suspects on the high seas…official tallies and week-by-week rundowns are now a regular beat in wire coverage.

I’m going to walk you through the two big questions that matter:

1. Is this lawful? (And what does “lawful” even mean when you blow a boat to splinters outside any declared war?)

2. Are we sliding toward a war with Venezuela…on purpose or by accident…and how will the rest of the world react when the wake from our hull hits their shores?

Let’s pull the camera back…and tell the truth the euphemisms won’t.

Strike #20: When “Interdiction” Becomes “Combat”

On November 13, 2025…the Pentagon acknowledged the 20th lethal strike against an alleged trafficking boat in the Caribbean.

Four killed. No survivors. A sterile sentence that tells you everything…and nothing. Reuters

In parallel reporting over recent weeks…we’ve learned the cadence: kill counts…grid squares…boats sunk…in both the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific.

Officials recite the targets as “drug organizations” or “designated terrorists,” and the media logs the death toll. Sixty-plus dead across theaters has been cited in tallies this fall…with date-by-date strike notes splashed across daily rundowns. (If that sounds like war reporting, it’s because it reads like war reporting.)

Here’s the pivot:

Interdiction used to mean stop…board…seize…arrest…the Coast Guard’s bread and butter…often with Navy support and diplomatic pre-clearance.

The United States…has a long history of doing this…within a clear…legal scaffold. But lethal force as first resort…is a different animal.

Naval thinkers…and maritime lawyers…have spent years warning what happens…when you swap handcuffs…for hellfire in the name of counternarcotics. U.S. Naval Institute

And the more you do it…the more “drug interdiction” stops being a law-enforcement mission and starts to look…sound…smell…like combat operations at sea.

A nation teaches the world what it believes by what it keeps doing when nobody can stop it.

“Narco-Terrorists” at Sea: The Law Isn’t a Slogan

You don’t have to be a professor of maritime law to grasp the stakes, but you do have to ignore the fog machine.

The administration’s preferred label…“narco-terrorists”…aims to tuck these strikes under an armed-conflict framework. The trouble is: lawful war and lawful policing… run on different fuel.

International law…gives coastal states and the U.S. Coast Guard…wide latitude to interdict…board…and seize stateless vessels on the high seas.

But killing suspected smugglers…is supposed to be the narrow exception…think immediate necessity…last resort…self-defense…not the program.

Legal scholarship makes the bright-line point:

UNCLOS, counter-drug treaties…and the law of the sea…don’t convert suspected smuggling…into open-season for lethal use of force.

You still need the policing test: necessity…proportionality…precaution…and accountability.

Conversely, if you claim armed conflict…you owe the IHL / LOAC test:

Status of the parties…intensity…organization…and targeting rules that map to a war… not a raid. You can’t mix frameworks…just to authorize the level of violence you want. (Courts notice that sort of thing.) Frontiers

Independent experts have started calling this out…LOUDLY.

A group of U.N. human-rights mandate holders…recently warned that lethal boat strikes…in international waters…amount to extrajudicial killings…and violate international law.

Washington’s rebuttal…self-defense, Article 51…is not a blank check to kill beyond any recognized battlefield. Labels don’t make the law…law…makes the labels. Reuters

Let’s translate the legalese into English:

• If the target is a suspected criminal…the default is arrest and due process…not summary execution at sea.

• If the target is an enemy fighter…you must show there’s a real armed conflict…not just a political slogan that rebrands policing as war.

Anything else? That’s policy laundering…with live ammunition.

Venezuela: The Flashpoint Hiding in Plain Sight

You can draw a line from the strike maps to the most combustible shoreline in the hemisphere: Venezuela.

* In September…Caracas accused a U.S. destroyer of intercepting…boarding…and occupying a Venezuelan tuna vessel for eight hours inside its Exclusive Economic Zone…calling it illegal and hostile.

The claim:

Nine unarmed fishermen; a violated flag state…sovereignty on the line. Washington did not stage a primetime denial. The incident pulsed through Latin media…and diplomatic channels…as one more proof point…that the U.S. is operating aggressively off Venezuela’s coast.

* Over the last month…the U.S. has moved a carrier strike group into the region… upgraded basing to support sustained operations…and telegraphed that “counter-narcotics” is now a carrier-sized mission set. This is not optics…it’s logistics. Carriers speak a language…every capital understands.

* And this fall’s first publicly acknowledged lethal strike…tied to a Venezuelan-origin boat…set a tone that’s gotten colder with every week since. Trump personally touted early kills at the podium. Caracas blasted them as lies. The message war hardened the rules-of-engagement war.

What does this add up to? Friction that can ignite from either end.

For Washington, “drug boats” become “terror boats.” For Caracas…“drug boats” become “Venezuelan boats” or “fishing boats.” Somewhere in the middle…a lethal encounter scribbles the next chapter of the story…one that points both countries over the quorum line…into true armed confrontation.

Sovereignty is the third rail. Touch it and everyone in the neighborhood feels the jolt.

The World Is Watching…and Choosing Sides

This is bigger than the Caribbean.

Latin America is allergic to great-power policing in its waters. Even U.S. partners get prickly fast…when operations drift from law enforcement…to lethal expeditions.

The tuna-boat episode…lit up regional media…not because fishermen matter more than traffickers…but because flags matter more than narratives.

Caribbean and Andean diplomacies sharpen when a superpower stakes out extra-territorial authority with missiles instead of MOUs.

Europe’s legal community…NGOs…maritime scholars…human-rights rapporteurs…has begun to frame the strikes…the way they framed targeted killings a decade ago:

If you can do it in the Caribbean today…why not the Mediterranean…tomorrow? U.N. experts have already said the quiet part out loud: extrajudicial executions…on the high seas…are not an okay precedent. The Brussels-Geneva axis keeps track of those words. So do insurers. So do courts. Reuters

Russia and China don’t waste moments like this. Moscow…will call it American hypocrisy…and offer air-defense gear to any capital feeling nervous.

Beijing will play the long game…loans and ports…while quietly whispering that freedom of navigation shouldn’t mean freedom to kill.

It’s not moral outrage…it’s market capture. When America ruffles a region…somebody else sells the comb.

And at home? Only 29% of Americans support the U.S. military killing drug suspects…according to fresh polling. That’s an electric fence…around the political appetite for prolonged…lethal maritime campaigns…that operate in a legal gray zone. Reuters

Legitimacy is a currency. Spend it on questionable kills and the exchange rate tanks fast.

The Law-of-War Trap (And How You Fall Into It)

Here’s the most dangerous sentence in Washington: “It’s just the high seas…what can they do?”

Answer: plenty.

International law…is slow…but…it’s not stupid. It draws a hard distinction between maritime law enforcement…and the use of force in international relations.

You can’t treat a smuggler like a soldier…just to access war powers.

If your program becomes kill first…courts…allies…and adversaries will say you made your choice: you think you’re at war. And if you think you’re at war…you inherit war’s obligations…and war’s risks. Frontiers

Just Security’s practical explainer gets this right:

Warning shots to stop a fleeing vessel…can be lawful police action…direct lethal force is a last resort…and the legal justification doesn’t expand…just because a suspect is bad. The necessity-proportionality test still applies. The ocean doesn’t dissolve it. Just Security

If you blur the line long enough…you’ll eventually prove your critics’ case:

That the U.S. adopted a standing policy…of extra-territorial killings…far from any recognized battlefield…against people who may be criminals…but whose right to life cannot be cancelled by a press release.

That’s not a law professor’s nightmare. That’s a courtroom exhibit waiting to be printed.

Are We Headed to War with Venezuela?

I’m not predicting; I’m hypothesizing in plain daylight. Here’s the picture on the table:

• Carrier strike group present and positioned in the Latin America region. (Carrier presence isn’t an opinion; it’s a capability.)

• Sustained maritime buildup and airfield upgrades for “long-term operations.” (You don’t pour concrete for a weekend.)

• A pattern of lethal strikes tied to Venezuelan-origin boats…and Caribbean lanes… announced from the White House podium…and the Pentagon lectern. (Words, then bombs; then bombs, then words.)

• Sovereignty incidents…like the tuna-boat boarding…used by Caracas to marshal domestic and regional resistance…to paint Washington as a predator in Venezuelan waters. (If you’re Nicolás Maduro, this is Christmas copy.)

Run those inputs through any strategist’s calculator and you’ll get the same three plausible branches:

Scenario A…“Coastal Creep.”

Boat strikes slide from deep-blue water…toward territorial seas and EEZs. A lethal engagement inside Venezuela’s maritime envelope…becomes a casus belli in Caracas’ narrative…even if D.C. insists…it was justified.

One bad shoot in the wrong coordinates…triggers mobilization…calls for OAS action… and a UNSC circus…where Russia and China drag the U.S. through glass. (No one “wins” that meeting; they harvest the sound bites for a decade.)

Scenario B…“Proxy Gulf.”

Caracas avoids a direct naval fight…but floods the zone with coast guard look-alikes… militias…and deniable actors.

Add Russian kit and Chinese comms. The practical effect? Risk inflation for U.S. ships…a fog of uniforms…and hair-trigger encounters…where the other side doesn’t even need to shoot…just swarm. (Ask Fifth Fleet what that feels like.) Reuters

Scenario C…“Stalemate by Lawfare.”

Latin governments file cases…protests…and boycotts… insurers spike premiums…and the U.S. suddenly…finds that the cost of maintaining “routine” lethal interdictions…diplomatic…financial…reputational…gets higher than the marginal kill.

The UN experts’ language…“extrajudicial executions”…becomes the first paragraph…in every talking point…from now to the G-20. Politically…that’s a drip torture the White House will hate. Reuters

Do I see a formal U.S. invasion? No.

That’s not this administration’s style. But I do see a spiral…more kills…more proximity…more friction…until one day…the map shows a kill box…hugging a coastline and a headline…nobody planned to write.

Wars don’t begin with declarations. They begin with habits.

The Domestic Fuse: Public Backlash, Congressional Scrutiny, and the Media Frame

A cold reality check: Americans aren’t on board with the killing program.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll reports just 29%…support for using the U.S. military to kill drug suspects…and that was before the twentieth strike landed in the news cycle. That matters.

When public support is underwater…Congress gets oxygen. Expect hearings…letters…and legislative riders…designed to force transparency on authorities…ROE…after-action reviews…and targeting intelligence. Reuters

The media frame is shifting, too.

Early coverage parroted the “narco-terrorist” line…later coverage reads like a body-count ledger.

And every time a fishing boat claim hits the wire from Caracas…true or not…the optics tilt against Washington. Boarding a tuna boat for eight hours…with 18 armed personnel…is the kind of image that sticks…because it feels like a parable. (Ask any Latin household which story they’ll retell at dinner.)

What the Rest of 2025 Looks Like If This Continues

Let’s keep it clinical and honest.

Normalization:

Every additional strike makes lethal interdiction feel routine. Habit becomes policy… policy becomes doctrine. At twenty…you’re writing a manual. At thirty..you’re teaching a class.

Legal drag:

Expect amicus briefs, U.N. statements…and NGO reports that solidify a narrative of illegal force. Even if you disagree with the lawyering…the repetition matters. Legitimacy erodes cumulatively. Reuters+1

Regional distancing:

Friendly states will quietly limit cooperation…especially boarding agreements and intelligence sharing…to avoid being complicit. That doesn’t make the front page…it just makes your job harder.

Adversary leverage:

Moscow and Beijing don’t have to win in the Caribbean. They just have to make it expensive…for us to stay. Carrier groups are symbols…and also billions in steel…parked under the politics of a bad headline. Reuters

Home-front politics:

An administration that promised control now owns a body count at sea that most voters don’t want. Either it closes the aperture…fewer strikes…cleaner law…or it starts bleeding support…exactly where it can’t afford to.

The 5 Tell-Tales You Must Watch (So You’re Not Blindsided)

1. Geography drift…Any strike inside 12 nm from the Venezuelan coast, or “hot pursuit” that looks like a territorial incursion. (One bad coordinate can change history.)

2. Platform mix…An uptick in aviation-delivered strikes (versus ship-launched) means tempo and reach are expanding.

3. Diplomatic filings…Look for OAS motions, UNHRC statements, or ICJ-style positioning by regional governments. That’s the lawfare runway being laid. Reuters

4. Insurance and ports…If port authorities or insurers start quietly restricting vessels associated with certain missions, the operational price goes up fast.

5. Polling trend…If the 29% support number sags lower, you’re approaching a political veto on further escalation. Reuters

What I Believe…and What I Refuse to Pretend

I believe we can fight cartels and smugglers…without turning the Caribbean into a free-fire classroom…for future lawyers to dismantle. I believe law is a weapon you earn the right to wield…by obeying it when it’s inconvenient.

And I refuse to pretend that twenty lethal strikes…is still a pilot program. It’s a policy. One that’s drawing heat from U.N. experts…raising alarms among maritime lawyers…unsettling Latin governments…and failing the American public’s own sniff test.

If you can’t win the argument in court…don’t try to win it with a missile.

The Bottom Line (And Why I’m Writing This Now)

You read me because I say the quiet part out loud, in time to act.

The Caribbean strikes… are not “just counternarcotics.” They are a strategic choice…to make lethal force…the grammar of maritime policy.

Once that grammar hardens…it rewrites everything…how judges read cases…how allies sign MOUs…how adversaries set traps…how voters judge presidents.

Are we “at war” with Venezuela? No.

Are we on a vector where one more strike…one more boarding…one more misread signal turns a policy into a crisis? Yes. You bet your ass. That’s the vector I’m warning you about.

Twenty is not just a number. It’s a habit.
And habits…in geopolitics…are how empires talk without words.

I’m anything but a political expert; I’m a human behavior expert. And as long as politics involves human beings…once you’ve decided to apply human behavior…to that…many seemingly confusing issues…become crystal clear.

What I Want You to Do Next

• Share this with anyone who still thinks “drug boats” are a sideshow. This is the show.

• Support oversight. However you vote…demand public accounting for authorities…ROE…and the factual basis for lethal force at sea.

• Watch the map…not the quotes. Geography tells the truth.

• Stay human. Because in the end…every “strike” is a life you can’t cross-examine …after the fact.

Back soon,

-Jack

P.S. Tomorrow’s Paid Deep Dive: “The Power Transfer Has Already Begun”

Tomorrow’s paid edition opens the vault:

• The Five Senators Already Signaling a Pivot
  Who they are…what they’ve said behind closed doors…and how their subtle trial balloons are being coordinated by a shared comms shop you’ve never heard of…yet.

• The Three Billionaires Funding the “Next Chapter” Plan
  Including the one who bankrolled both Trump’s rise...and DeSantis’s super PAC…and is now quietly pulling dollars into a post-Trump rescue fund.

• The Media Ecosystem Quietly Preparing to Turn on Trump
  The editorial cues…off-record memos…and synchronized tone shift across Fox… Sinclair…and the influencer sphere designed to normalize his political exit.

Plus:

The back-channel transition team drafting a Trump-free GOP message…fresh polling showing base fatigue you can weaponize…and the one insider quote that’s lighting up donor dinners on K Street.

Because this isn’t just a headline… it’s the start of the power transfer.