Historians note the composition of delegations. Iran sent seventy-one people to Islamabad — the Central Bank governor, senior military advisers, legal teams, technical committees organized by subject area. The United States sent Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner. Jack is correct that the asymmetry in preparation is the entire story before a single word is spoken. The Iranian delegation arrived having read every agreement the United States has made and broken with them since 1979. That institutional memory does not sit in binders. It sits in the room, in the people who were there, or who were trained by people who were. File the date the Americans arrived without equivalent depth. It will be cited when scholars explain what the parties understood themselves to be doing.
Jack is correct that the watch signals are precise: Does Ghalibaf stay for a second session or send Araghchi? Does Israel hold in Lebanon through the weekend? Do the written texts describe the same framework on both sides of the table? These are not rhetorical questions. They are the empirical tests that will determine whether April 11 was the beginning of something or the last pause before resumption. Note which questions the press conferences do not answer. Note which ones the oil price answers instead.
While reading along with Jack’s newsletter, I could feel my eyebrows actually arch upwards when I read the composition of the two negotiation teams. Reminded me of my anecdotal “research” I collected during my teaching days. I started noting patterns of preparedness from class discussions based on where students habitually sat. Those ready to engage were typically early to class and would sit in rows 1-3. Those that weren’t prepared, slid through the door at the last moment and sat as far away as possible. The Iranian delegation seem like front row students! I heard one commentator on MSNOW talk about the US “team,” calling them real estate agents! Seemed an apt description-so we will see!
Thanks for your comments to Jack’s newsletters - I look forward to your perspectives.
BTW - my classroom seating “research” prompted me to randomly rearrange my classroom, moving the lectern, arranging the seats into small or large discussion circles or squared configurations, with me sitting versus standing. The level of preparedness didn’t measurably change 😉
I doubt rearranging the seating configuration being conducted in Pakistan would change the preparedness of the two teams, either. 😬
We just subscribed. We appreciate all the careful research and detailed documentation. Thank you.
We are wondering if Vance needs to demand that trump fire hegseth (lower case intentional). We read that Vance went to law school at Yale with the Secretary of the Army, Daniel P Driscoll.
On Vance and Hegseth...Vance doesn't move against anyone publicly. That's not how this operates. He builds cases through CHANNELS.
Whether Hegseth becomes a liability Vance exploits....depends entirely on his 2028 calculation. Publicly moving against him...costs him with TRUMP'S base. Quietly building the case...costs him nothing.
The Driscoll connection is genuinely interesting. Truly.
Yale Law creates institutional bonds...that persist for decades.
Vance and Driscoll...in the same cohort...means shared trust built BEFORE either knew what they'd become. Driscoll at Secretary of the Army....while Hegseth runs Defense...is most certainly a fault line worth watching.
If pressure builds against Hegseth from inside the Pentagon...Driscoll is positioned to be part of that architecture.
"Face to face" in diplomacy means direct communication...not necessarily the same room.
The phrase gets used loosely in international negotiations. Same building. Direct exchange. Not confirmed same table.
Conflicting reports on the exact mechanics have been swirling since yesterday. But...my bet? You're right. Most of it did not take place where either party could watch the other one sweat.
That is my understanding as well. And the difference in preparedness is clear as day. the Iranians came loaded for bear and we sent the 3rd string in to do negotiations with no real backup. It does not take much to see where this is going. Plus Israel has no interest in negotiations any more than after they attacked Gaza and they are still attacking them. Much of their mentions have come from us.
Thank you, Jack. Just getting to all this late today. Fixing to read the paid subscriber article. I wish I was optimistic but I don’t think Netanyahu has any intention of stopping the strikes on Lebanon. I hope I’m wrong.
Netanyahu has said explicitly...and repeatedly...that operations against Hezbollah continue regardless of what Washington negotiates.
The no-deal announcement from Vance....gave him a wider window to act.
The honest read...is that Lebanon is the variable most likely to COLLAPSE whatever emerges from this process. Not the nuclear question. Not Hormuz. Because Lebanon is the ONE variable....Washington cannot deliver...and....Netanyahu will NOT surrender.
Hope you're wrong too!
But...hope and the current trajectory...are pointed in different directions right now.
Joan...yes...that Guardian piece names something operating in plain sight.
Hegseth has been explicit about his religious framework in ways no previous SecDef has been.
Christian nationalist identity...combined with operational authority...over the world's most powerful military...applied to a conflict with Iran...that occupies SPECIFIC place in Christian eschatology...moves you out of pure foreign policy calculation. Talk about a "shit-show."
Foreign policy built on national interest...can be negotiated. Foreign policy animated by theological conviction...yeah...that has a different relationship with compromise...and...a different definition of VICTORY.
The Guardian piece suggests the compartmentalization between belief...and decision-making is NOT clean.
Originally I wanted to share this article live bc of those who don’t see this in plain sight including the extreme use in our military or no real experts to guide our troops or negotiations in foreign affairs/policy. It’s most concerning our troops being sacrificed and nothing is being done about it, including the war crimes committed. I appreciate what you said Jack. Duty calls
No one can guess how this “negotiation” will turn out. I first would like to comment on the absurdity of having JD Vance as the lead negotiator. His 12 hours of internation negotiation experience contrasts significantly with Iran’s 47 years of experience. Looking back on the home front, Trump will never allow another person to “finalize” a settlement without his direct approval. The American three stooges are greatly outclassed by the Iranian team. So negotiations are a joke.
So what then? We will see muscle flexing by Trump. Today Trump said he would impose a total blockade for the Strait of Hormuz. Why? Because it is a diversion from Trump’s Epstein problem. The straits were already essentially closed, so the only real impact will be attacks on US vessels performing the blockade.
My prediction is that the US will try and stop a Chinese flagged oil tanker. China will respond by sending warships to escort their commercial tankers through the straits. They are likely already preparing to get underway. If the US tries to stop the escort, it will take just one poor decision by the US to send us into WW III. Standby for the shit to hit the fan!
Historians note the composition of delegations. Iran sent seventy-one people to Islamabad — the Central Bank governor, senior military advisers, legal teams, technical committees organized by subject area. The United States sent Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner. Jack is correct that the asymmetry in preparation is the entire story before a single word is spoken. The Iranian delegation arrived having read every agreement the United States has made and broken with them since 1979. That institutional memory does not sit in binders. It sits in the room, in the people who were there, or who were trained by people who were. File the date the Americans arrived without equivalent depth. It will be cited when scholars explain what the parties understood themselves to be doing.
Jack is correct that the watch signals are precise: Does Ghalibaf stay for a second session or send Araghchi? Does Israel hold in Lebanon through the weekend? Do the written texts describe the same framework on both sides of the table? These are not rhetorical questions. They are the empirical tests that will determine whether April 11 was the beginning of something or the last pause before resumption. Note which questions the press conferences do not answer. Note which ones the oil price answers instead.
#HOLDFAST
While reading along with Jack’s newsletter, I could feel my eyebrows actually arch upwards when I read the composition of the two negotiation teams. Reminded me of my anecdotal “research” I collected during my teaching days. I started noting patterns of preparedness from class discussions based on where students habitually sat. Those ready to engage were typically early to class and would sit in rows 1-3. Those that weren’t prepared, slid through the door at the last moment and sat as far away as possible. The Iranian delegation seem like front row students! I heard one commentator on MSNOW talk about the US “team,” calling them real estate agents! Seemed an apt description-so we will see!
Thanks for your comments to Jack’s newsletters - I look forward to your perspectives.
BTW - my classroom seating “research” prompted me to randomly rearrange my classroom, moving the lectern, arranging the seats into small or large discussion circles or squared configurations, with me sitting versus standing. The level of preparedness didn’t measurably change 😉
I doubt rearranging the seating configuration being conducted in Pakistan would change the preparedness of the two teams, either. 😬
We just subscribed. We appreciate all the careful research and detailed documentation. Thank you.
We are wondering if Vance needs to demand that trump fire hegseth (lower case intentional). We read that Vance went to law school at Yale with the Secretary of the Army, Daniel P Driscoll.
Linda...Welcome!
I'm genuinely glad you're here.
On Vance and Hegseth...Vance doesn't move against anyone publicly. That's not how this operates. He builds cases through CHANNELS.
Whether Hegseth becomes a liability Vance exploits....depends entirely on his 2028 calculation. Publicly moving against him...costs him with TRUMP'S base. Quietly building the case...costs him nothing.
The Driscoll connection is genuinely interesting. Truly.
Yale Law creates institutional bonds...that persist for decades.
Vance and Driscoll...in the same cohort...means shared trust built BEFORE either knew what they'd become. Driscoll at Secretary of the Army....while Hegseth runs Defense...is most certainly a fault line worth watching.
If pressure builds against Hegseth from inside the Pentagon...Driscoll is positioned to be part of that architecture.
Good catch!
-Jack
Thank you.
You're welcome, Linda.
-Jack
My understanding was they were not face to face but were in the same building with Pakistan going in between.
Liz...you're right to question it.
"Face to face" in diplomacy means direct communication...not necessarily the same room.
The phrase gets used loosely in international negotiations. Same building. Direct exchange. Not confirmed same table.
Conflicting reports on the exact mechanics have been swirling since yesterday. But...my bet? You're right. Most of it did not take place where either party could watch the other one sweat.
-Jack
That is my understanding as well. And the difference in preparedness is clear as day. the Iranians came loaded for bear and we sent the 3rd string in to do negotiations with no real backup. It does not take much to see where this is going. Plus Israel has no interest in negotiations any more than after they attacked Gaza and they are still attacking them. Much of their mentions have come from us.
Thank you, Jack. Just getting to all this late today. Fixing to read the paid subscriber article. I wish I was optimistic but I don’t think Netanyahu has any intention of stopping the strikes on Lebanon. I hope I’m wrong.
#Holdfast
~Susan
Susan…you're not wrong.
Netanyahu has said explicitly...and repeatedly...that operations against Hezbollah continue regardless of what Washington negotiates.
The no-deal announcement from Vance....gave him a wider window to act.
The honest read...is that Lebanon is the variable most likely to COLLAPSE whatever emerges from this process. Not the nuclear question. Not Hormuz. Because Lebanon is the ONE variable....Washington cannot deliver...and....Netanyahu will NOT surrender.
Hope you're wrong too!
But...hope and the current trajectory...are pointed in different directions right now.
#Holdfast
-Jack
Jack, I wasn’t expecting to be wrong here. Thanks for the confirmation though. We need the truth even when we don’t like it. ~Susan
Under Aaron Parnas substack this am Iran is mentioned and hmm, my plate is full, I believe you understand but this article by The Guardian
Pete Hegseth’s holy war: the militant Christian theology animating the US attack on Iran.
Joan...yes...that Guardian piece names something operating in plain sight.
Hegseth has been explicit about his religious framework in ways no previous SecDef has been.
Christian nationalist identity...combined with operational authority...over the world's most powerful military...applied to a conflict with Iran...that occupies SPECIFIC place in Christian eschatology...moves you out of pure foreign policy calculation. Talk about a "shit-show."
Foreign policy built on national interest...can be negotiated. Foreign policy animated by theological conviction...yeah...that has a different relationship with compromise...and...a different definition of VICTORY.
The Guardian piece suggests the compartmentalization between belief...and decision-making is NOT clean.
That matters ENORMOUSLY for Islamabad.
-Jack
Originally I wanted to share this article live bc of those who don’t see this in plain sight including the extreme use in our military or no real experts to guide our troops or negotiations in foreign affairs/policy. It’s most concerning our troops being sacrificed and nothing is being done about it, including the war crimes committed. I appreciate what you said Jack. Duty calls
Thank you Jack
You're welcome, Joan.
-Jack
Is it too late to share that article live? Originally Something told me not to.
No one can guess how this “negotiation” will turn out. I first would like to comment on the absurdity of having JD Vance as the lead negotiator. His 12 hours of internation negotiation experience contrasts significantly with Iran’s 47 years of experience. Looking back on the home front, Trump will never allow another person to “finalize” a settlement without his direct approval. The American three stooges are greatly outclassed by the Iranian team. So negotiations are a joke.
So what then? We will see muscle flexing by Trump. Today Trump said he would impose a total blockade for the Strait of Hormuz. Why? Because it is a diversion from Trump’s Epstein problem. The straits were already essentially closed, so the only real impact will be attacks on US vessels performing the blockade.
My prediction is that the US will try and stop a Chinese flagged oil tanker. China will respond by sending warships to escort their commercial tankers through the straits. They are likely already preparing to get underway. If the US tries to stop the escort, it will take just one poor decision by the US to send us into WW III. Standby for the shit to hit the fan!