Historians note the composition of delegations. Iran sent seventy-one people to Islamabad — the Central Bank governor, senior military advisers, legal teams, technical committees organized by subject area. The United States sent Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner. Jack is correct that the asymmetry in preparation is the entire story before a single word is spoken. The Iranian delegation arrived having read every agreement the United States has made and broken with them since 1979. That institutional memory does not sit in binders. It sits in the room, in the people who were there, or who were trained by people who were. File the date the Americans arrived without equivalent depth. It will be cited when scholars explain what the parties understood themselves to be doing.
Jack is correct that the watch signals are precise: Does Ghalibaf stay for a second session or send Araghchi? Does Israel hold in Lebanon through the weekend? Do the written texts describe the same framework on both sides of the table? These are not rhetorical questions. They are the empirical tests that will determine whether April 11 was the beginning of something or the last pause before resumption. Note which questions the press conferences do not answer. Note which ones the oil price answers instead.
While reading along with Jack’s newsletter, I could feel my eyebrows actually arch upwards when I read the composition of the two negotiation teams. Reminded me of my anecdotal “research” I collected during my teaching days. I started noting patterns of preparedness from class discussions based on where students habitually sat. Those ready to engage were typically early to class and would sit in rows 1-3. Those that weren’t prepared, slid through the door at the last moment and sat as far away as possible. The Iranian delegation seem like front row students! I heard one commentator on MSNOW talk about the US “team,” calling them real estate agents! Seemed an apt description-so we will see!
Thanks for your comments to Jack’s newsletters - I look forward to your perspectives.
BTW - my classroom seating “research” prompted me to randomly rearrange my classroom, moving the lectern, arranging the seats into small or large discussion circles or squared configurations, with me sitting versus standing. The level of preparedness didn’t measurably change 😉
I doubt rearranging the seating configuration being conducted in Pakistan would change the preparedness of the two teams, either. 😬
We just subscribed. We appreciate all the careful research and detailed documentation. Thank you.
We are wondering if Vance needs to demand that trump fire hegseth (lower case intentional). We read that Vance went to law school at Yale with the Secretary of the Army, Daniel P Driscoll.
That is my understanding as well. And the difference in preparedness is clear as day. the Iranians came loaded for bear and we sent the 3rd string in to do negotiations with no real backup. It does not take much to see where this is going. Plus Israel has no interest in negotiations any more than after they attacked Gaza and they are still attacking them. Much of their mentions have come from us.
Historians note the composition of delegations. Iran sent seventy-one people to Islamabad — the Central Bank governor, senior military advisers, legal teams, technical committees organized by subject area. The United States sent Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner. Jack is correct that the asymmetry in preparation is the entire story before a single word is spoken. The Iranian delegation arrived having read every agreement the United States has made and broken with them since 1979. That institutional memory does not sit in binders. It sits in the room, in the people who were there, or who were trained by people who were. File the date the Americans arrived without equivalent depth. It will be cited when scholars explain what the parties understood themselves to be doing.
Jack is correct that the watch signals are precise: Does Ghalibaf stay for a second session or send Araghchi? Does Israel hold in Lebanon through the weekend? Do the written texts describe the same framework on both sides of the table? These are not rhetorical questions. They are the empirical tests that will determine whether April 11 was the beginning of something or the last pause before resumption. Note which questions the press conferences do not answer. Note which ones the oil price answers instead.
#HOLDFAST
While reading along with Jack’s newsletter, I could feel my eyebrows actually arch upwards when I read the composition of the two negotiation teams. Reminded me of my anecdotal “research” I collected during my teaching days. I started noting patterns of preparedness from class discussions based on where students habitually sat. Those ready to engage were typically early to class and would sit in rows 1-3. Those that weren’t prepared, slid through the door at the last moment and sat as far away as possible. The Iranian delegation seem like front row students! I heard one commentator on MSNOW talk about the US “team,” calling them real estate agents! Seemed an apt description-so we will see!
Thanks for your comments to Jack’s newsletters - I look forward to your perspectives.
BTW - my classroom seating “research” prompted me to randomly rearrange my classroom, moving the lectern, arranging the seats into small or large discussion circles or squared configurations, with me sitting versus standing. The level of preparedness didn’t measurably change 😉
I doubt rearranging the seating configuration being conducted in Pakistan would change the preparedness of the two teams, either. 😬
We just subscribed. We appreciate all the careful research and detailed documentation. Thank you.
We are wondering if Vance needs to demand that trump fire hegseth (lower case intentional). We read that Vance went to law school at Yale with the Secretary of the Army, Daniel P Driscoll.
My understanding was they were not face to face but were in the same building with Pakistan going in between.
That is my understanding as well. And the difference in preparedness is clear as day. the Iranians came loaded for bear and we sent the 3rd string in to do negotiations with no real backup. It does not take much to see where this is going. Plus Israel has no interest in negotiations any more than after they attacked Gaza and they are still attacking them. Much of their mentions have come from us.
Under Aaron Parnas substack this am Iran is mentioned and hmm, my plate is full, I believe you understand but this article by The Guardian
Pete Hegseth’s holy war: the militant Christian theology animating the US attack on Iran.
Thank you Jack