What I hear is the sound of an iceberg "calving." I heard it on a tour of an iceberg field in Alaska. It starts out as a hissing, then a creaking noise, then a cracking noise like kindling snapping in a fire, and finally this thunderous crash as a huge piece of the iceberg breaks off. I feel like kindling is about to start snapping.
I also feel like we need to be on the look out for Trump to do something incredibly reckless. He feels those walls closing in and you can hear the panic rising every time he speaks.
Stephanie H...that iceberg metaphor is perfect...and I'm stealing it!
You've just described EXACTLY where we are. Past the hissing. Past the creaking. Right at the kindling stage...where each snap....sounds small...until....suddenly they don't anymore.
You're absolutely right about the recklessness. Cornered men with unlimited power...and no internal governor...are THE most dangerous variable in ANY equation. The panic is audible. It's in the contradictions. The escalations. The stories...that don't match his own Pentagon's.
When a man that fragile...feels the walls moving...he doesn't negotiate. He swings.
Stay alert. Stay steady. The kindling is snapping!
THANK YOU JACK!! The hope is palpable…I could feel it on Saturday when we were on the streets in our SF Bay Area community…there was so much energy, people talking about their plans for celebrating that moment when it does break…lots of hope out there!!! Also, have to say Pope Leo is saying EXACTLY what needs to be said, and saying it loudly, not pulling any punches…speaking the truth!
Thank you for all your wisdom, your perspective and inspiring words…they help to keep me going, even on dark days!!!
What you felt on Saturday...wasn't manufactured energy....it was eight million people simultaneously REMEMBERING... that they aren't alone.
That feeling...doesn't evaporate when the crowd disperses. It travels home...with every single person who was there. Including YOU.
And...the Pope...I'll be honest, I didn't have that in my six-month forecast. But...when the leader of a billion Catholics looks Pete Hegseth in the eye...on Palm Sunday...and says God does not justify this war...that's not a religious statement. That's a HISTORICAL one.
Thank you for being in the streets, Christie. Thank you for keeping going on the dark days. That's not a small thing. That's the WHOLE thing!
The analysis held because it was built on the right foundation: not ideology, but incentive. Loyalty in these systems is a calculation. When the calculation changes, the loyalty changes. Jack is correct about this. What accelerated faster than projected was the credibility gap — the distance between what the executive claims and what institutions confirm. Citizens who cannot determine which account of reality is true do not split the difference. They withdraw from the system that produced both. Eight million people who organized nothing and showed up anyway are not radicals. They are the population authoritarians require to remain passive. Note that they did not.
The rival rise does not require a named successor yet. It only requires enough people inside the system to begin privately rehearsing the sentence: I was always skeptical. When that sentence becomes common enough, the dam does not break. It dissolves. Jack is correct that we are somewhere in the middle of that dissolution. The framework was sound. The world moved faster into it than projected.
Jane......bingo...the framework holds precisely because it's NOT based on Trump specifically. It's based on how power actually works. How loyalty calculates. How self-preservation...eventually overrides ideology EVERY single time.
Trump accelerated the timeline. The Iran war accelerated it FURTHER. Eight million people Saturday accelerated it AGAIN.
The variables changed. The equation...didn't.
That's the difference between analysis and reaction. Reaction chases events. Analysis ...understands the underlying current...and...watches events confirm it.
You clearly understand the difference. That's why you're here!
The pope said it best because he just shot down kegs breath's comments about dying for the church. No one with a brain believes on the second coming under the auspices of a killing war of innocent plain citizens especially children. The video that Iran sent from Kharg island was spot on. It showed that russia is feeding iran intel and china is also happening. Someone needs to stick that in his face but they are to chicken to do it. We must hang in their
The Pope didn't just REBUKE Hegseth....he pulled the theological rug out from under the ENTIRE religious justification for this war.
You cannot dress up the bombing of children in the language of Christian mission...and expect the leader of a billion Catholics to stay quiet. He didn't. GOOD.
The Kharg Island footage...is something every American should see. Russia...feeding targeting intelligence. China...watching and learning. And...the people who know this... who have seen the intelligence...sitting in comfortable chairs in Washington saying nothing loud enough to matter.
I think you are correct. We need to keep the pressure on. But I hope it does not cost those young lives we are sending to the Persian Gulf. they do not deserve this.
Nancy..agreed...neither do their families. Neither do the Iranian civilians absorbing the other end of this.
That's the part that gets lost in the financial architecture analysis...underneath every stock ticker...and contract announcement...and congressional trade...is a human being who had nothing to do with any of it...standing in the blast radius of someone else's profit motive.
The pressure we keep has to be worthy of the cost they're paying!
That's the obligation. I don't take it lightly. Neither do you...and that's exactly why you belong here.
Absolutely spot on analysis then and now. Yes, it's different because then it was hypothetical. Now it is actually happening. Record number of retirement from congress. The war of choice has hastened it. And besides the munitions manufacturers and corps, the trump family are reaping big.
Jack - you are a national treasure for those of us seeking clarity amidst this chaos. Thanks for putting yourself out there and for bringing us along with you!!
I want to be honest with you...some weeks the weight of what we're covering is heavy. The Iran war. The financial architecture underneath it. The institutional erosion that keeps accelerating.
On those weeks, notes like yours are what keep me at the keyboard. Truly.
Thank you for being here. Thank you for seeking CLARITY instead of comfort. That distinction matters more right now...than almost anything else.
Your analysis six months ago and your analysis now are road maps that keep our minds focused, even though it feels like everything around us is falling apart. In your scenario 2, you mention the generals quietly disobeying orders. That's where we are on a precipice right now. Our highly trained troops have been sent to Iran for a land invasion. That is an order that should be disobeyed. I don't pretend to know what is in the hearts and minds of our generals and their decision making. How many flag draped coffins are there going to be before the majority of Americans say: NO MORE? We know that Trump is cornered and we know that he will do anything to protect himself. I also stood with my fellow Americans in protest of authoritarian rule taking over our country. There was a feeling of camaraderie and strength that We Got This. Thank you, Jack. You help is get ready for what is coming our way.
Lynn...thank you for being in the streets Saturday!
That matters more than you know.
You've put your finger on the most dangerous variables in this entire equation (as I mentioned earlier in someone else's post)...the cornered man with NOTHING left to lose ...and the launch codes.
History is not kind about what happens in that scenario. It's not.
The generals are the LAST institutional check that means anything right now. Whether they hold that line...is the question that keeps serious people up at night.
On the coffins...that number has always been the trip wire. Public tolerance for casualties has a threshold. We don't know where it is...until we cross it. But...we're closer than the official casualty counts suggest.
What you felt Saturday...that camaraderie...that "we got this"...that's not sentiment. That's the thing that actually changes historical OUTCOMES. Not the protests themselves. What people carry HOME from them.
We bow down to you, Oh Prophet. Please bring us more glad tidings of the coming end - no matter how frightening it will be as it disintegrates. We’re ready
Terry...Ha. Prophet feels generous...I'm just a man with a newsletter and a stubborn refusal to look away.
But...I'll take it.
The glad tidings are coming. The map has more road on it than most people realize...and ...some of what's ahead is genuinely surprising...even to those of us who saw the early signs.
Stay buckled. And...thank you for being ready, Terry!
Just finished reading “One Nation Under Blackmail” by Whitney Webb. Confirms what you wrote yesterday about who Is actually pulling the strings. Israel, Defense Contractors, and Intelligence masquerading as Christians. Follow the money. Thanks for all you do Jack.
John...Whitney Webb does the kind of work that makes everything else make sense in retrospect.
"One Nation Under Blackmail" is one of those books that PERMANENTLY changes how you read a headline. Once you see the network she maps...the intelligence connections... the financial architecture...the leverage system that runs underneath official power...you cannot unsee it. You just can't.
It confirms what I wrote yesterday...the same way a key confirms a lock. The pieces were always there. Webb just shows you how they fit...and she does it well.
"Follow the money" isn't a slogan. It's the methodology...that EVERYTHING else depends on.
Holdfast back at you, John And...thank you for doing the reading. An informed community is the ONLY thing that actually threatens the people we're writing about.
I think, for me, the thing that has held true was my prediction that the military would, in fact, follow him down the road to ruin. My husband, the ever-optimistic veteran, thought otherwise. A few resignations, but more removals, and not a lot of statements from those being pushed out. That does surprise me that more of them have not spoken out. Time will tell, and boots on the ground may change the dynamic. Thanks for the review. #HoldingFast
Thank you for helping me gain more clarity each time I read your posts, Jack. It's easy for me to feel kind of untethered right now; your posts are very grounding.
What I hear is the sound of an iceberg "calving." I heard it on a tour of an iceberg field in Alaska. It starts out as a hissing, then a creaking noise, then a cracking noise like kindling snapping in a fire, and finally this thunderous crash as a huge piece of the iceberg breaks off. I feel like kindling is about to start snapping.
I also feel like we need to be on the look out for Trump to do something incredibly reckless. He feels those walls closing in and you can hear the panic rising every time he speaks.
Stephanie H...that iceberg metaphor is perfect...and I'm stealing it!
You've just described EXACTLY where we are. Past the hissing. Past the creaking. Right at the kindling stage...where each snap....sounds small...until....suddenly they don't anymore.
You're absolutely right about the recklessness. Cornered men with unlimited power...and no internal governor...are THE most dangerous variable in ANY equation. The panic is audible. It's in the contradictions. The escalations. The stories...that don't match his own Pentagon's.
When a man that fragile...feels the walls moving...he doesn't negotiate. He swings.
Stay alert. Stay steady. The kindling is snapping!
-Jack
I like your basset hound! Hubby and I had one as our first dog some 40 years ago.
Great way to describe that with analogy.
Agree, Terri...I read Stephanie's iceberg line...and thought...hmmm...brilliant!
-Jack
Have you read any of Zev’s NARATIVE with investigation into Epstein? Look like he is going really deep into the money who was really in charge.
It’s an awesome sound, isn’t it??? I’m glad I got to experience it, also in Alaska!
THANK YOU JACK!! The hope is palpable…I could feel it on Saturday when we were on the streets in our SF Bay Area community…there was so much energy, people talking about their plans for celebrating that moment when it does break…lots of hope out there!!! Also, have to say Pope Leo is saying EXACTLY what needs to be said, and saying it loudly, not pulling any punches…speaking the truth!
Thank you for all your wisdom, your perspective and inspiring words…they help to keep me going, even on dark days!!!
Christie...YOU were there. That means everything!
What you felt on Saturday...wasn't manufactured energy....it was eight million people simultaneously REMEMBERING... that they aren't alone.
That feeling...doesn't evaporate when the crowd disperses. It travels home...with every single person who was there. Including YOU.
And...the Pope...I'll be honest, I didn't have that in my six-month forecast. But...when the leader of a billion Catholics looks Pete Hegseth in the eye...on Palm Sunday...and says God does not justify this war...that's not a religious statement. That's a HISTORICAL one.
Thank you for being in the streets, Christie. Thank you for keeping going on the dark days. That's not a small thing. That's the WHOLE thing!
-Jack
The analysis held because it was built on the right foundation: not ideology, but incentive. Loyalty in these systems is a calculation. When the calculation changes, the loyalty changes. Jack is correct about this. What accelerated faster than projected was the credibility gap — the distance between what the executive claims and what institutions confirm. Citizens who cannot determine which account of reality is true do not split the difference. They withdraw from the system that produced both. Eight million people who organized nothing and showed up anyway are not radicals. They are the population authoritarians require to remain passive. Note that they did not.
The rival rise does not require a named successor yet. It only requires enough people inside the system to begin privately rehearsing the sentence: I was always skeptical. When that sentence becomes common enough, the dam does not break. It dissolves. Jack is correct that we are somewhere in the middle of that dissolution. The framework was sound. The world moved faster into it than projected.
#HoldFast
Jane......bingo...the framework holds precisely because it's NOT based on Trump specifically. It's based on how power actually works. How loyalty calculates. How self-preservation...eventually overrides ideology EVERY single time.
Trump accelerated the timeline. The Iran war accelerated it FURTHER. Eight million people Saturday accelerated it AGAIN.
The variables changed. The equation...didn't.
That's the difference between analysis and reaction. Reaction chases events. Analysis ...understands the underlying current...and...watches events confirm it.
You clearly understand the difference. That's why you're here!
#HoldFast
-Jack
The pope said it best because he just shot down kegs breath's comments about dying for the church. No one with a brain believes on the second coming under the auspices of a killing war of innocent plain citizens especially children. The video that Iran sent from Kharg island was spot on. It showed that russia is feeding iran intel and china is also happening. Someone needs to stick that in his face but they are to chicken to do it. We must hang in their
#HOLDFAST
Teri
Teri...you're firing on all cylinders tonight.
The Pope didn't just REBUKE Hegseth....he pulled the theological rug out from under the ENTIRE religious justification for this war.
You cannot dress up the bombing of children in the language of Christian mission...and expect the leader of a billion Catholics to stay quiet. He didn't. GOOD.
The Kharg Island footage...is something every American should see. Russia...feeding targeting intelligence. China...watching and learning. And...the people who know this... who have seen the intelligence...sitting in comfortable chairs in Washington saying nothing loud enough to matter.
That's not cowardice. That's COMPLICITY.
Holdfast Teri.
You see it CLEARLY. Keep saying it out loud.
#HOLDFAST
-Jack
Thanks Jack for your thoughtful analysis, scarry at times - always insightful.
You're welcome, Anna. Truly. And...thank YOU.
-Jack
I think you are correct. We need to keep the pressure on. But I hope it does not cost those young lives we are sending to the Persian Gulf. they do not deserve this.
Nancy..agreed...neither do their families. Neither do the Iranian civilians absorbing the other end of this.
That's the part that gets lost in the financial architecture analysis...underneath every stock ticker...and contract announcement...and congressional trade...is a human being who had nothing to do with any of it...standing in the blast radius of someone else's profit motive.
The pressure we keep has to be worthy of the cost they're paying!
That's the obligation. I don't take it lightly. Neither do you...and that's exactly why you belong here.
-Jack
Absolutely spot on analysis then and now. Yes, it's different because then it was hypothetical. Now it is actually happening. Record number of retirement from congress. The war of choice has hastened it. And besides the munitions manufacturers and corps, the trump family are reaping big.
Jo...every point lands!
The congressional retirement number is one of the most UNDERREPORTED signals out there.
Politicians don't retire into uncertainty. They retire...when they've calculated that the next chapter...is WORSE... than walking away.
Record retirements mean a lot of people inside that building...know something the headlines haven't caught up to yet. You can take that to the bank!
The war of choice...accelerated everything. The timeline I projected assumed a slower burn. Iran lit the fuse FASTER.
The Trump family financial angle? That's tomorrow's piece. The money trail runs exactly where you think it runs. Names. Numbers. Connections.
Stay tuned!
-Jack
Excellent! I am ready for it.
#HoldFast
Jack - you are a national treasure for those of us seeking clarity amidst this chaos. Thanks for putting yourself out there and for bringing us along with you!!
Jay...that genuinely means everything to me.
I want to be honest with you...some weeks the weight of what we're covering is heavy. The Iran war. The financial architecture underneath it. The institutional erosion that keeps accelerating.
On those weeks, notes like yours are what keep me at the keyboard. Truly.
Thank you for being here. Thank you for seeking CLARITY instead of comfort. That distinction matters more right now...than almost anything else.
We keep going. Together!
-Jack
Your analysis six months ago and your analysis now are road maps that keep our minds focused, even though it feels like everything around us is falling apart. In your scenario 2, you mention the generals quietly disobeying orders. That's where we are on a precipice right now. Our highly trained troops have been sent to Iran for a land invasion. That is an order that should be disobeyed. I don't pretend to know what is in the hearts and minds of our generals and their decision making. How many flag draped coffins are there going to be before the majority of Americans say: NO MORE? We know that Trump is cornered and we know that he will do anything to protect himself. I also stood with my fellow Americans in protest of authoritarian rule taking over our country. There was a feeling of camaraderie and strength that We Got This. Thank you, Jack. You help is get ready for what is coming our way.
Lynn...thank you for being in the streets Saturday!
That matters more than you know.
You've put your finger on the most dangerous variables in this entire equation (as I mentioned earlier in someone else's post)...the cornered man with NOTHING left to lose ...and the launch codes.
History is not kind about what happens in that scenario. It's not.
The generals are the LAST institutional check that means anything right now. Whether they hold that line...is the question that keeps serious people up at night.
On the coffins...that number has always been the trip wire. Public tolerance for casualties has a threshold. We don't know where it is...until we cross it. But...we're closer than the official casualty counts suggest.
What you felt Saturday...that camaraderie...that "we got this"...that's not sentiment. That's the thing that actually changes historical OUTCOMES. Not the protests themselves. What people carry HOME from them.
You carried something real home. Hold it!
-Jack
A shout out for all those folks who went to and organized the NO KINGS #3
Absolutely, John Smith!
-Jack
We bow down to you, Oh Prophet. Please bring us more glad tidings of the coming end - no matter how frightening it will be as it disintegrates. We’re ready
Terry...Ha. Prophet feels generous...I'm just a man with a newsletter and a stubborn refusal to look away.
But...I'll take it.
The glad tidings are coming. The map has more road on it than most people realize...and ...some of what's ahead is genuinely surprising...even to those of us who saw the early signs.
Stay buckled. And...thank you for being ready, Terry!
-Jack
Maybe seer instead?
;)
Just finished reading “One Nation Under Blackmail” by Whitney Webb. Confirms what you wrote yesterday about who Is actually pulling the strings. Israel, Defense Contractors, and Intelligence masquerading as Christians. Follow the money. Thanks for all you do Jack.
Holdfast
John...Whitney Webb does the kind of work that makes everything else make sense in retrospect.
"One Nation Under Blackmail" is one of those books that PERMANENTLY changes how you read a headline. Once you see the network she maps...the intelligence connections... the financial architecture...the leverage system that runs underneath official power...you cannot unsee it. You just can't.
It confirms what I wrote yesterday...the same way a key confirms a lock. The pieces were always there. Webb just shows you how they fit...and she does it well.
"Follow the money" isn't a slogan. It's the methodology...that EVERYTHING else depends on.
Holdfast back at you, John And...thank you for doing the reading. An informed community is the ONLY thing that actually threatens the people we're writing about.
Keep going.
-Jack
Realistic optimism is powerful. It's what we need right now. Thank you.
I think, for me, the thing that has held true was my prediction that the military would, in fact, follow him down the road to ruin. My husband, the ever-optimistic veteran, thought otherwise. A few resignations, but more removals, and not a lot of statements from those being pushed out. That does surprise me that more of them have not spoken out. Time will tell, and boots on the ground may change the dynamic. Thanks for the review. #HoldingFast
Thank you for helping me gain more clarity each time I read your posts, Jack. It's easy for me to feel kind of untethered right now; your posts are very grounding.
I’m looking for the crack started by Joe Kent to widen. Are there some indications of this?