MAGA's Civil War Has a Winner. It Doesn't Have to Be Them.

What the Republican split means for November, and the one mistake that could waste it

MAGA's Civil War Has a Winner. It Doesn't Have to Be Them.

What the Republican split means for November, and the one mistake that could waste it.

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #1,039: Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

I’m going to tell you something that should make every Democrat sit up straight.

The Republicans are panicking, and not quietly.

I recently watched one of the Right’s biggest media voices spend a whole segment melting down. Not over Democrats…over his own side. He was furious that people he once called friends are now, in his words, trying to make Republicans lose.

I watched the whole thing, and I’ll be honest: I enjoyed it.

But enjoying it isn’t a strategy. So let’s talk about what’s actually happening, why it matters, and the one mistake Democrats must not make.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Donald Trump’s approval rating is stuck in the high 30s.

Donald Trump’s approval rating averages around 36 percent.

Republicans trail by around eight points on the generic congressional ballot.

Here’s what the Right’s own commentators are admitting. Democrats haven’t moved. We never liked him. The collapse is coming from independents and from Republicans who are walking away.

By their own math, if they were down five instead of eight, they’d probably hold the Senate. Michigan, Iowa, Texas, Maine and Alaska would all tilt their way.

Read that again. They’re three points from holding the Senate, and those three points are leaving on their own.

We didn’t take those votes. Their own movement drove them off.

Welcome to the “Horseshoe Right”

That’s the name their establishment has given the rebels: Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Thomas Massie and Joel Webber.

The accusation from the Republican establishment is blunt. They say these figures want the GOP to lose in November so they can blame Trump’s foreign policy, walk into the wreckage and take over what’s left of the party.

Is that true? I don’t know. I’m not a mind reader.

But I know what it looks like from the outside:

1. Tucker Carlson went on NPR and said Trump should have been removed by his own cabinet.

2. He’s praising Obama’s Iran deal.

3. He backed Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat running for Senate in Michigan, and called the Republican nominee unfit to serve.

4. In Maine, he defended Graham Platner, the Democrat who dropped out of the Senate race amid scandal, and claimed Platner was pushed out by party insiders. He insists he isn’t endorsing anyone there…but he isn’t exactly helping Susan Collins either.

5. Marjorie Taylor Greene, once one of Trump's loudest champions, now says the party has abandoned "America First." Thomas Massie, who lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenger, is using his final months in Congress to fight the administration on Iran.

When the people who built your brand start tearing it down in public, you don’t have a messaging problem. You have a foundation problem.

History Has Seen This Movie Before

This isn’t the first time the Republican Party has turned on itself, and the last big split didn’t end well for them.

In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt broke with President William Howard Taft and ran on his own Progressive ticket. The Republican vote split in two, and Woodrow Wilson walked into the White House.

The lesson isn’t complicated. When a party spends an election fighting over its own soul, the other side gets to govern.

I’m not saying 2026 is 1912. Every race is different, and nobody should get cocky. But when a party’s own commentators are on air accusing former allies of sabotage…you’re not looking at a normal disagreement. You’re looking at a fracture, and fractures don’t heal on a campaign schedule.

Here’s the Part Democrats Need to Hear

This is where I want every Democrat reading this to slow down.

The enemy of our enemy is not our friend.

It’s tempting to cheer when Tucker Carlson says nice things about a Democratic candidate. It’s tempting to clip his NPR interview and pass it around like a trophy.

Don’t.

Look at where this “horseshoe” is actually heading. Joel Webbon is one of the voices in this crowd. He’s been telling conservatives it’s time to embrace socialism to compete with the Left. Then he said this:

“Do socialism, maybe call it a national socialism actually.”

That isn’t a slip…and it isn’t a joke. He’s telling you exactly which history he finds appealing.

These people aren’t moving toward us. They’re moving somewhere darker. They borrow our language…on corporate power…and foreign wars…and wrap it in something none of us should ever want near our party.

Take the votes they shake loose…but never take their endorsement as a compliment.

What We Should Actually Do

Napoleon supposedly said never to interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake.

That’s the play. Here’s what it looks like in practice:

Stay focused on our voters.

Their civil war is their problem. Our job is turnout…and that means talking about costs…jobs…health care and the war that’s driving up gas prices.

Talk to the independents they’re losing.

These voters aren’t leaving because a podcaster told them to. They’re leaving…because things cost too much and the country feels less stable. Give them a reason to vote for something.

Don’t let the fringe define the fight.

If Democrats start treating Tucker Carlson as a validator, Republicans will use it to scare their base back home. Don’t hand them that gift.

Keep receipts on everyone.

When a figure like Webbon says the quiet part out loud…remember it. The horseshoe crowd may be fighting the GOP establishment today…but…they’re not fighting for anything we believe in.

Don’t Assume This Lasts

Now for the warning I’d give any Democrat feeling good right now.

Republican divisions can close faster than you think. A ceasefire in Iran…a drop in gas prices…or one big news event…could send wandering voters back home in October.

Their own strategists know it. The same commentator who was fuming about the “horseshoe right” was also warning his side not to count on a quick deal with Iran to rescue them. Translation: they’re worried their problems run deeper than one policy.

That’s good news for us…but it’s not a guarantee. Momentum in politics is borrowed… never owned.

So…plan for the version of this race…where Republicans get their act together. If we can win that race…we’ll win the easier one too.

Q&A: The Horseshoe Right, Explained

1. Is the “horseshoe right” real, or is it just a label the Republican establishment invented to explain away their bad polling?

A little of both.

The label comes from Republicans who are scared and looking for someone to blame. It’s always easier to point at a traitor than to admit your agenda is unpopular.

But the split underneath the label is real. Carlson, Greene and Massie aren’t quietly grumbling. They’re publicly breaking with party leadership, and in Carlson’s case, speaking warmly about Democratic candidates. You don’t need to accept the establishment’s theory about why they’re doing it to see that they’re doing it.

The fracture is real. The conspiracy theory about it is optional.

2. You said not to treat Tucker Carlson’s interview like a trophy. But you also wrote a piece about what Tucker Carlson said Trump told him in private. Isn’t that a contradiction?

No, and this is the most important distinction in the whole piece.

“Don’t treat the interview like a trophy” is not the same as “don’t listen to them.”

When I say don’t treat it like a trophy, I mean don’t turn these people into heroes. Don’t treat Tucker Carlson’s approval as a badge of honor. Don’t build your arguments around his credibility…because his record on the truth is mixed at best…and his worldview is not ours.

But…when a man who spent years inside Trump’s inner circle…says something about what Trump told him privately, that’s information. Ignoring it would be foolish.

Here’s how I handle it:

1. I report what was said and who said it. I don’t dress it up as proven fact.

2. I weigh the source. Carlson has his own motives right now, and readers deserve to know that.

3. I look for corroboration. Does it fit Trump’s public statements? Does anyone else back it up?

4. I let you judge it. You’re adults. You can handle a claim with a caveat attached.

A prosecutor doesn’t have to like a witness to take the testimony seriously. A journalist doesn’t have to admire a source to write down what he said. Evaluating someone’s words is a sign of taking them seriously. It is not endorsement.

What I warned against is applause. What I did is scrutiny. Those are opposites.

3. Why include the Joel Webbon “national socialism” quote? Isn’t that one fringe guy?

Maybe. But fringe guys have a way of becoming mainstream guys…when nobody calls them out.

I included it…because it shows where some of this energy is heading. The horseshoe crowd sometimes sounds like us when it talks about corporate power or foreign wars. That overlap can fool people into thinking we’re on the same team.

Webbon’s line is a reminder that we’re not. When someone floats “national socialism” as a branding idea…you take him at his word.

4. What if Republicans patch things up before November?

Then we’d better be ready for a real fight, which is exactly what I argued.

A ceasefire, falling gas prices, or one big news event could bring wandering Republican voters home. Politics moves fast.

That’s why I told Democrats to plan for the harder race. If our case depends on Republicans staying divided…it’s a weak case. If it depends on what we’ll actually do about costs, health care and a war people didn’t ask for, it holds up no matter what the other side does.

5. What should readers actually do with all this?

Three things.

First, stay informed without getting played.

Read what the Right’s dissenters are saying, and evaluate it like you would any source: with a skeptical eye and an open mind.

Second, talk to the persuadable people in your life.

The independents drifting away from the GOP aren’t reading Substack essays about horseshoe theory. They’re worried about their bills. Meet them there.

Third, show up.

Divided opponents don’t win elections for you. Turnout does.

The Bottom Line

The Republican Party is going into November divided, defensive and down in the polls.

Its own commentators are publicly admitting the Senate is slipping away.

That’s an opening…and a big one.

But…openings get wasted when you get distracted…overconfident…or cozy with the wrong people.

Think about what’s at stake. Control of the Senate decides which judges get confirmed…which bills reach the President’s desk…and whether anyone in Washington has the power to ask hard questions about a war most Americans didn’t vote for.

That’s not abstract. That’s your paycheck…your gas tank and your kids’ future.

So…let them fight. Let them blame each other. Let them spend the fall arguing over who burned down the house.

We’ll be busy knocking on doors.

#HoldFast

Back soon.

-Jack
Jack Hopkins

P.S. Their commentators are already predicting who they’ll blame if they lose. Save those predictions. On November 4th, they’ll make a great column.

Sources

Polling and the midterm landscape

• Opinion polling on the second Trump presidency (Wikipedia aggregate)

• Silver Bulletin: How popular is Donald Trump?

• CNN: Why the 2026 election could be the worst midterm for the GOP this century

• NBC News: Democrats enjoy biggest lead yet in the race for Congress

Tucker Carlson’s NPR interview and the 25th Amendment

• NPR Newsmakers: Tucker Carlson has reconsidered Trump. And quite a bit else

• Axios: Tucker Carlson says Trump should have been ousted over Iran threat

• Newser: Tucker Carlson says Trump should be removed from office (includes what Carlson says Trump told him privately)

Carlson and Democratic Senate candidates

• Yahoo News: Tucker Carlson backs Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race

• CNN: El-Sayed responds to unlikely supporter Tucker Carlson

• Mediaite: Tucker Carlson defends Graham Platner over tattoo scandal

• Yahoo News: Tucker Carlson claims Platner’s downfall wasn’t about “sex or tattoos”

Greene, Massie and the GOP split over Iran

• Newsweek: Thomas Massie on the Iran war

• Mediaite: Marjorie Taylor Greene on the Republican “civil war”

Joel Webbon and “national socialism”

• Rod Dreher: Their Kampf: How Zoomer Men Radicalized

The 1912 election

• Wikipedia: 1912 United States presidential election

• Saturday Evening Post: 1912, A Chaotic Presidential Election

Original segment

• The Ben Shapiro Show, The Daily Wire.