Jack, what stands out is how the situation exposes the real mechanics of international power. Framing this as “law enforcement” masks a deeper truth: it’s essentially extra-legal regime intervention. That normalizes a troubling precedent — that a state can project force globally under the pretense of justice, sidestepping both domestic and international law.
It’s not just about Maduro or Venezuela. It’s about the erosion of norms that restrain the use of force, the way economic and corporate interests are intertwined with foreign policy, and how public narratives are deliberately simplified to obscure these dynamics. The article touches on this, but the bigger concern is the structural message: any nation with enough leverage can act outside established rules, and the world’s legal architecture is ill-equipped to respond.
This is why these actions aren’t isolated incidents—they are symptoms of a systemic shift in global governance, where might increasingly defines right, and transparency or accountability is optional.
Good commentary, love the sources, three questions:
a) “…China…and Russia…publicly criticized the operation as a violation of sovereignty…”
Do China and/or Russia truly believe they’re in any position to criticize a violation of sovereignty? [Tibet, Bhutan, Mongolia, Ukraine, etc, etc]
b) “When a move is framed as “unique,” “temporary,” or “necessary,” ask what precedent it sets if repeated by the next actor…or the one after that.”
Is there any chance an outside force will come and get 47?
c) did the individual members of the U.S. military involved in this action act honorably and in keeping with their oaths? What would the argument be to put forth their participation was lawful and honorable?
These are fair questions, Mary E. Let me take them in order.
a) You’re right, that neither China...nor Russia...has clean hands when it comes to sovereignty.
Their criticism isn’t rooted in principle....so much as INTEREST.
States invoke sovereignty selectively...usually when a precedent threatens their freedom of action...or...weakens norms they may want to invoke later.
Hypocrisy doesn’t negate the concern...though...it actually underscores how fragile those norms ALREADY are.
b) Realistically, there is virtually no chance an outside force “comes to get” a sitting U.S. president...in the way Maduro was taken.
Power asymmetry matters. The point of the precedent isn’t symmetry...it’s that once rules are bent by the strongest actors...weaker ones are left with even fewer protections...and global restraint erodes further. The danger is systemic...not reciprocal. (I can clarify that a bit more if you like)
c) For individual service members...this is the hardest and most IMPORTANT question.
The strongest argument for their actions being lawful and honorable...is that they operated under lawful orders (maybe)...issued through the chain of command...relying on executive authority...and existing legal frameworks they are not positioned to adjudicate independently in the moment.
(Now, there is a LOT more that could be discussed here...I know. But, for a more general answer to your specific question...I'll let what I've written hang in the air for now.)
Honor...in that context...is tied to duty, discipline...and adherence to orders...not authorship of policy.
The deeper legal and constitutional questions properly sit above them, with civilian leadership. (Again, this could be a ten article series...all by itself, and I have very strong personal feelings on this subject. Feelings that do NOT necessarily align with what I am writing, looking more at the STRUCTURAL aspects.)
I appreciate the seriousness of how you’re thinking through this. These distinctions matter...and asking them carefully is exactly how clarity...rather than reflex...is maintained.
If we were in a bar, having a beer..I'd have a lot more to say. I don't, here...because it would distract from the structural examination...which...at the end of the day, for our purposes...more important.
You're welcome, Mary...that’s a damn reasonable question...and the honest answer...is that ANY state should pay attention when precedents like this are set.
Not because a SPECIFIC action is imminent...but...because the logic BEHIND the action...has now been tested...and shown to work.
Precedents don’t target one country...they reshape the environment. Once a justification is normalized...it becomes available for future use....by this administration or ANOTHER...wherever interests...opportunity...and leverage align.
That’s why the focus shouldn’t be on predicting the next target...but on whether limits...oversight...and norms are reinforced now...before the logic spreads further.
Thanks for making me dig, Mary. I like when people make me go deeper...because in answering... I clarify some ideas for myself...as well.
No matter how the actions are renamed, there is no honor in doing the illegal acts in the particular situation, it would seem, and particularly when we know what the ultimate goal was and remains.
Alarm bells sounded as soon as I learned that Trump overthrew another sovereign nation. I have no love for Maduro, but we have our own boil on our backside to deal with. He has a gold encrusted oval coffin he works out of, sometimes. Mostly he vacations and plays golf. But, I digress. I knew it was a ruse the entire time of narco terrorism nonsense. I was livid our illustrious Congress sat on their thumbs and voted raises for themselves. That action should have been stopped immediately. I know the law enforcement action was a lie as well. Anytime you send US military into action, it is a war. So just another day in trumplandia. It was never about the drugs, or else he would not have freed the ex Honduras dude. It was not about relief for the fine citizens of Venezuela, or else he would not have revoked their status to stay in the US and then arrested, deported them to ElSalvador prison torture in the dead of night. It was not about regime change. It was partially about oil. It is mostly about reordering the structure of how the world order is arranged; Vlad gets Europe, XI gets Asia, and the US gets the west. You know the Con Donroe Doctrine. It says Dementia Don gets to possess whatever country he desires. What’s next? Little Marco let it slip. We may be revisiting the Bay of Pigs. Sheesh!
What caused the acceleration? He was tanking on the home front + Epstein + losing court cases + pressure to bear from us. Looks like there will be no Nobel Peace Prize for him.
Jo...I hear the alarm you’re describing...and I understand why this crossed a line for you.
You’re right that disliking Maduro and questioning how this was done are NOT contradictory positions. Those distinctions matter.
You’re also right that when military force is used...the legal and constitutional questions CANNOT be waved away by labels like “law enforcement.”
That’s exactly why congressional silence and normalization are SO DAMN dangerous... not because of any single justification...but...because of what gets accepted...by DEFAULT.
I want to be careful about assigning motives...or forecasting specific next moves...but ...your core concern is a serious one: when power is exercised without clear limits...accountability...or restraint, the consequences don’t stay confined to ONE country or one MOMENT.
Holding onto that clarity...without letting it curdle into INEVITABILITY...is part of what holding fast...actually means. I appreciate you laying this out...and...I don’t dismiss the urgency behind it!
Great article Jack! It requires Congress to reclaim what’s left of their authority, so I’ve flooded Kansas Senators local and DC voicemails demanding they do so immediately. Death by a thousand cuts, thousands of grains of sand in the authoritarian Trump regime! #HOLDFAST
Outstanding, Elizabeth. Thank you. I really respect you taking CONCRETE action.
Congressional authority only exists if it’s exercised...and pressure like THAT... does add up over time.
You’re right...it’s rarely one dramatic move that changes things...but SUSTAINED insistence on accountability. I’m grateful YOU...are doing your part...and for holding fast.
Thanks Jack! It sure doesn’t seem like enough to me! If I lived in Virginia, Maryland, Rhode Island I would be in DC having a huge sign and probably getting arrested I’m so pissed. This is my only way to soothe my conscience and prevent me from doing something illegal. I’m living up to the reputation of cranky old bitch! It’s actually fun, but I’d rather be having a better type of fun….. #HOLDFAST
Motives and implications are *all over the place* according to every analysis I've read so far. Very few agree on what he's actually trying to accomplish but most agree that he's unlikely to accomplish much of anything long term. It's really about shock and awe *and EPSTEIN* IMHO.
Here are a few interesting observations:
1. The oil is pretty much a nonstarter. Trump is flat out lying about that. None of the major oil companies have agreed to invest. None of them even know the extent of investment that would be required in order to see a return. Add foreseeable long term political instability and it's just not going to happen. He's not going to live long enough for anything to come of it even if it were viable, at any rate. Nice try, Dump Truck Don.
The other thing is that any condemnation is unlikely to be sustained. The newly sworn president is in on the grift, most likely. She is posturing (but possibly also fomenting rebellion which might or might not be useful but not to US interests so that's something to watch).
Mexico and the rest of Latin America are going to shush and how because they don't want the eye of Sauron turning on them and with Trump's caustic unpredictability, any of them could be next and they know it.
Greenland is, of course, also outraged by Katie Millers tweet but again, they don't need any attention that might be garnered by pushing back too much. Keir Starmer, for example, isn't saying shit right now because unfortunately, the strongman act is just enough to convince both allies and enemies (which are who, again?) that you don't want to FAFO where Trump is concerned, as Kegsbreath would say.
Finally, Russia is only condemning the action until they thoughtfully pipe down because Putin is in actuality rubbing his hands together gleefully since Trump has handed him another item directly off his wishlist. It totally legitimizes foreign invasion and imperialism and Putin desperately still needs that in order to continue justifying increasing aggression against Ukraine. The condemnation is entirely performative. It similarly gives Xi a direct justification to take over Taiwan, as he has clearly begun to test out.
Okay, Angie...strap in...this reply will be a bit longer than usual...but only as long as needed to appropriately address your points.
You’re zeroing in on the through-line most analysts are STILL tiptoeing around.
This isn’t a strategy. It’s a distraction event...layered on top of a LONG con...and...yes, Epstein is sitting right under it...like a dead body hidden beneath a rug...everyone keeps tripping over.
A few blunt points to sharpen what you already laid out:
1. The oil story is pure BULLSHIT theater.
You’re right. No majors are in. No capital is committed. No serious due diligence has even begun. Anyone who understands upstream investment...knows Venezuela isn’t a “drill baby drill” scenario; it’s a decades-long rehabilitation project with MASSIVE political risk.. broken infrastructure...opaque reserves...sanctions exposure...and zero rule-of-law guarantees.
Capital HATES uncertainty. Trump loves pretending uncertainty is leverage. Those two things NEVER meet. My brother-in-law is a money guy. He talks about this often.
Interestingly enough, he and his family were here at our house today (it had been abut a year)...and we discussed this very thing.
This is about saying “oil” to signal strength...not extracting a barrel.
2. Condemnation will evaporate because fear works.
You nailed this too. Most actors aren’t confused...they’re quietly self-preserving. Trump’s unpredictability is just coherent ENOUGH... to trigger FAFO paralysis.
That’s the strongman sweet spot: irrational ENOUGH to scare...rational ENOUGH to avoid immediate retaliation.
Latin America’s silence isn’t approval...it’s survival calculus.
Everyone’s lowering their profile...and hoping the spotlight moves.
That’s not diplomacy. That’s intimidation... REPLACING norms.
3. The “new president” posturing is almost certainly part of the grift.
Public resistance + private alignment is authoritarian theater 101.
It keeps domestic pressure diffuse...while preserving elite access. If rebellion bubbles up... it becomes a tool...not a threat....as long as it weakens institutions...faster than it weakens control.
Again: motion over outcome.
4. Russia and China are the actual audience.
This is the most dangerous part...AND... you’re right to flag it.
Putin doesn’t need Trump’s help militarily; he needs NARRATIVE permission.
Every time a U.S.-aligned actor blurs the line on sovereignty...Putin’s internal justification file gets THICKER.
Same for Xi. Taiwan doesn’t need to be invaded tomorrow for this to matter...it needs to be normalized...as inevitable.
The condemnations are kabuki. The PRECEDENT...is the prize.
5. And...yes ...Epstein is the accelerant.
This kind of shock-and-awe foreign spectacle...always coincides with moments when attention must be yanked elsewhere.
Trump’s pattern is consistent: when legal...reputational...or loyalty stress spikes...he manufactures scale. BIG enough to crowd out oxygen. LOUD enough to reorder headlines. CONFUSING enough to fracture analysis.
Every con he runs serves two purposes:
1. Project dominance
2. Scramble accountability
This one does both...BADLY...but badly doesn’t matter short-term.
So when people ask, “What’s he really trying to accomplish?” the answer is:
Not policy. Not stability. Not even success.
He’s trying to:
*Reassert personal centrality
*Legitimize raw power
*Flood the zone
*And...BUY TIME.
Long term? You’re right...almost NOTHING here holds.
Short term? It destabilizes norms just ENOUGH to be useful.
And that’s why, no lol...we actually ARE in danger.
Jack, I appreciate your description. It seems to me, as it has seemed for a number of years now, partly because he was heard saying that everything is his, that the dictators cheer each other on as they take control in various places through various ways. That is an early step in their schemes. Having fewer leaders as competition helps them all, or each.
The bigger plan has seemed that only they will be owners or controllers of the Earth. However, the personalities do not seem the type to be satisfied by sharing with anyone. It would not be surprising for any one of them to attempt to take over the others, whether they number more than two, merely two, or only one. In this supposition, which might seem extremely wild, I cannot help but wonder what would come next following becoming owner or dictator of the Earth.
I am not convinced that any one of them would be satisfied to own or control only part of our world. It seems that their greed would become so apparent that there would be no trust among or between the number of them. And when there would be only one leader or dictator, if our congress fails to act fast, correctly, and thoroughly, wouldn’t it be “lonely at the top?” Would the lack of competition create a letdown once a major goal was achieved? What then? The planets, I suppose, but it seems that nothing would satisfy one of them or any of them for long.
It also seems above all, that getting along fairly and genuinely well with leaders around the world, and all acting harmoniously to do good and make better lives for everyone, while giving people choices they appreciate, would be ever so much more rewarding and worthwhile as well as admirable.
Invading a sovereign country is WAY bigger than the Epstein Files. The Global order has gone from Civilization to Barbarism. Overnight. If this insanity is allowed to stand, any country can now invade another and take what it wants if it can. The madman must be impeached, then convicted and removed from office. By the end of January, latest. Our Republican Senators have the power to do this.
I believe it’s much too early to draw conclusions about what “success” this regime change might mean in moving the Overton Window on international relations. We’ve not seen the collateral consequences to Venezuela and the region overall from “running” a broken, if not failed, state while stealing the country’s resources comes to bear. It certainly is an audacious con, but of the series of cons he’s executed, which of them have resulted in anything but turmoil?
Frank, you’re exactly right....and you’re pointing at the REAL mistake analysts keep making.
Calling this “success” is classic "outcome-before-consequences" thinking.
Authoritarian cons ALWAYS look brilliant in the short run...because they’re judged on motion...not results. Power seized. Institutions sidelined. Resources extracted. Optics controlled. Applause from people who confuse AUDACITY...with competence.
But the Overton Window...doesn’t move on theft...it moves on stability...PLUS legitimacy. And this regime...has neither.
Running a broken or failed state...while looting it is not a strategy...it’s a burn rate.
Venezuela isn’t just a domestic disaster...it’s a regional pressure cooker. Refugee flows... criminal spillover...capital flight...cartel entanglement...sanctions feedback loops.
None of that shows up in the “strongman success” headlines...until it does.
“It demonstrated how easily the language of “law enforcement,” “necessity,” and “temporary control” can be stitched together to justify unilateral power…without meaningful constraint…and…without a clear off-ramp.
Once you see that, the appropriate response is not outrage.
It’s focus.
The people who protect democratic norms don’t do it by yelling louder. They do it by refusing to let new rules become invisible.
That’s the mindset shift required now.”. Thank you @jackhopkins
Looks like an inside job to me...Entebbe 2.0 ? I don't believe so...perfect execution? not without inside knowledge and participation (in a land far, far away a long time ago us Grunts didn't particularly like Chinooks because of Strela heat seeking missiles) and now you are trying to convince me that many Chinooks loitered in a hot AO that long without receiving fire in the age of manpads...something stinks like collusion...and the timing? New Years weekend right on the heels of the Jack Smith revelations and increasing pressure from the trumpstein files? a desperate attempt at diversion and the part that pisses me off the most is that if this Treasonous piece of feces gets away with this he will have co-opted our Military...and he will turn them against the Citizens of our nation...buckle up boys and girls, this is about to get fugly...
Yes! The threat that was even more acute and had the potential to blow up in his face with a much greater shorter term explosion than Epstein, at least for that moment, was Smith's deposition. Trump desperately needed cover for both of those things, something big. So he found (manufactured) a bigger story.
Jack, my senators are having a “News conference” at 9:30 from Doral, FL, in other words, Trump’s golf club. I can already hear their framing, which will be exactly what you just described. Neither of them will condemn this. There will be no push back from those two. I have been making calls with demands for accountability,I know it’s shouting into a void. Watching the news, with the climate Trump created in the Caribbean, Americans who are cruising and traveling to that region should have real concerns. Mexico and Columbia and Cuba all on high alert. Trump threatening them. My MAGA neighbors are leaving on a cruise to Mexico, Belize and Honduras. They are gleefully packing thinking we have a “strong President”. I worry those countries will not be so welcoming to the dumb Americans who think all is ok. It is not okay. This President and his cabinet have no concern for our citizens safety. Welcome to the Trump reality.
Hi Jack - yes, thanks for laying this out. My only comment is that it seems to give trump too much credit. I could be wrong, but I don’t see him “engineering” this or responsible for the “strategy”. I have always sensed his position as president is suiting some very powerful people and that he’s “allowing” things to happen rather than being any sort of mastermind. Would be interesting to know who exactly is.
Jack, thank you for the perfect way you have enumerated the steps and presented this whole situation. The reality as you present it is exactly how I see it, and it is impossible to understand how anyone could blindly accept the “wrapper” as you call it, labeling it as anything other than what it is.
These behaviors of anyone in an executive position in our country. or in any country, are unacceptable and are not who we are.
While your majorly important emphasis on remaining calm and vigilant or alert is of the essence, it is not only appropriate but is the ultimately demanded approach in all of this situation, the underlying reaction - the one beneath the calmness of the surface, and it is one of both emotion and a heavy thud, a feeling beyond embarrassment, a heavy sickness at the fact that anyone could behave as has been done, to control and rob another country, its government, and its perceived wealth, and in the process, bring such shame on our country or set a precedent while hoping to take future steps in owning more and more of the world, while being unethical, unchallenged, unquestioned. That is not greatness. It is not wisdom or bravery. It is not acceptable, and it is not the American way. It must not become the American way. Of course, we “see” or can predict future steps in the plan, but they must not happen. Our calm actions and attitudes must convince the people who can legally prevent it, to do so, unanimously.
Getting back to the calmness you so rightly point out overall, I continue to feel it with a heavily weighted thud inside me, and I hope that now my representative and all representatives and senators will see the situation for what it is, what it must not be, and what it must not become. They have the power to act collectively now if only one hundred percent of them will find the integrity and wisdom to do so.
I believe that leaving a phone message for each of our own congressional leaders and others is the best approach. In case anyone needs to know, the spreadsheet of all congressional numbers and contact information was created by Megan or Meghan Rothery. It should be available on line. If I find it soon, I will try to paste it in a response here. As she wisrlyvpointed out, by calling after office hours, we can leave a message without being blocked by living in an area with a different zip code. During hours, if we are outside the area of constituents, we are not allowed to leave a message. Further, I believe that calls and written. mailed, and emailed messages matter, but probably phone messages will be the hardest for anyone to ignore.
(After thought: We have known all along that the person wants to own the world and control it and its wealth. The desire was clear, but the method was not. The actions leading up to it were somewhat indicative, but the actual method of “control” was not.
We also knew before the immunity situation was allowed, that certain people were in on it. Let us hope that the persistant integrity of faithful servants within our government, and reclaimed/resurfacing of lost integrity of those elected servants who have fallen, will become strong and united to do what is right for the sake of doing what is right, for the sake of all of the people everywhere humanity and respect, for the sake of upholding America, and for the sake of restoring our image in the world and our friendships and alliances in turn. Nobody can trust a country with the actions which recently took and are taking place by the person and the accomplices.
Thank you for all you do, Jack. I will read comments, but I like to answer before I read them so I am thinking for myself. Then I can learn eagerly, as time allows, by reading other commenters’ thoughts. I’m sure we each are grateful for you, your wisdom, and this opportunity.
Thank you for the structural analysis Jack. As always, very helpful as in... how to handle this. My stomach has settled and I’ve been analyzing, observing and interjecting when it felt appropriate to do so. This will be my guide for now. I’ve seen all the reactions .. condemnation… from the international community and otherwise so far and I’m watching to see who does what. Time will tell. I wish I thought Congress would act in some meaningful way… I don’t. If you disagree I’d love to hear it. Will ANYONE take any action? Legal or otherwise?
I’m VERY concerned about the actions of our military and I know you are too. I read the comments… always.. so I understand why you’re not saying more here and now. I hope at some point you’ll share your thoughts.
I expected an attack. He’d been shouting it for months… AND becoming increasingly unhinged but kidnapping Maduro and his wife wasn’t on my 2926 Bingo Card but here we are *sigh*
I look forward to your next article whatever that might be.
As your Canadian neighbour, my feeling is, unless Congress steps in, and soon, these actions will not be “ unique “or “ temporary “ for very long, before they become “ necessary “.
They’re already talking Greenland, Cuba, Columbia and God help them if they even TRY, CANADA‼️ I don’t think their actions are “ unique “ This is a test balloon
America's dependence on oil has always created the pillage of oil-rich countries, both in the Eastern and Western hemispheres. Instead of digging deeper and deeper into the bottom of the barrel, how about the "energy" oligarchs start adopting the successful strategies of other countries that have diminished and/or eliminated use of fossil fuels.
Here is the link for the spreadsheet Megan Rothery created for convenience in contacting people in Congress. She has made it available in a number of substacks, including, bout not necessarily limited to, those of Prof. Robert Reich and Dr. Heather Cox Richardson.
Jack, what stands out is how the situation exposes the real mechanics of international power. Framing this as “law enforcement” masks a deeper truth: it’s essentially extra-legal regime intervention. That normalizes a troubling precedent — that a state can project force globally under the pretense of justice, sidestepping both domestic and international law.
It’s not just about Maduro or Venezuela. It’s about the erosion of norms that restrain the use of force, the way economic and corporate interests are intertwined with foreign policy, and how public narratives are deliberately simplified to obscure these dynamics. The article touches on this, but the bigger concern is the structural message: any nation with enough leverage can act outside established rules, and the world’s legal architecture is ill-equipped to respond.
This is why these actions aren’t isolated incidents—they are symptoms of a systemic shift in global governance, where might increasingly defines right, and transparency or accountability is optional.
This, Jane... is exactly right, and you articulated it with real clarity.
Once force is framed as “law enforcement,” the legal and normative guardrails...erode almost invisibly.
That’s the danger: not the single act...but the precedent it sets...and how easily it’s normalized.
You’re also right to widen the lens beyond Venezuela. When narratives are simplified...and accountability becomes optional...power FILLS the gap.
That structural shift is the part people tend to miss...and it’s why naming it EARLY matters.
I really appreciate you laying this out so clearly, Jane. This is the level of thinking these moments demand.
-Jack
I totally forgot #Holdfast
#HoldFast Jane
Well written, Jane.
#HoldFast
Hi Jack,
Good commentary, love the sources, three questions:
a) “…China…and Russia…publicly criticized the operation as a violation of sovereignty…”
Do China and/or Russia truly believe they’re in any position to criticize a violation of sovereignty? [Tibet, Bhutan, Mongolia, Ukraine, etc, etc]
b) “When a move is framed as “unique,” “temporary,” or “necessary,” ask what precedent it sets if repeated by the next actor…or the one after that.”
Is there any chance an outside force will come and get 47?
c) did the individual members of the U.S. military involved in this action act honorably and in keeping with their oaths? What would the argument be to put forth their participation was lawful and honorable?
Thank you, Jack.
These are fair questions, Mary E. Let me take them in order.
a) You’re right, that neither China...nor Russia...has clean hands when it comes to sovereignty.
Their criticism isn’t rooted in principle....so much as INTEREST.
States invoke sovereignty selectively...usually when a precedent threatens their freedom of action...or...weakens norms they may want to invoke later.
Hypocrisy doesn’t negate the concern...though...it actually underscores how fragile those norms ALREADY are.
b) Realistically, there is virtually no chance an outside force “comes to get” a sitting U.S. president...in the way Maduro was taken.
Power asymmetry matters. The point of the precedent isn’t symmetry...it’s that once rules are bent by the strongest actors...weaker ones are left with even fewer protections...and global restraint erodes further. The danger is systemic...not reciprocal. (I can clarify that a bit more if you like)
c) For individual service members...this is the hardest and most IMPORTANT question.
The strongest argument for their actions being lawful and honorable...is that they operated under lawful orders (maybe)...issued through the chain of command...relying on executive authority...and existing legal frameworks they are not positioned to adjudicate independently in the moment.
(Now, there is a LOT more that could be discussed here...I know. But, for a more general answer to your specific question...I'll let what I've written hang in the air for now.)
Honor...in that context...is tied to duty, discipline...and adherence to orders...not authorship of policy.
The deeper legal and constitutional questions properly sit above them, with civilian leadership. (Again, this could be a ten article series...all by itself, and I have very strong personal feelings on this subject. Feelings that do NOT necessarily align with what I am writing, looking more at the STRUCTURAL aspects.)
I appreciate the seriousness of how you’re thinking through this. These distinctions matter...and asking them carefully is exactly how clarity...rather than reflex...is maintained.
If we were in a bar, having a beer..I'd have a lot more to say. I don't, here...because it would distract from the structural examination...which...at the end of the day, for our purposes...more important.
-Jack
Thank you, Jack,
Back to
b) “When a move is framed as “unique,” “temporary,” or “necessary,” ask what precedent it sets if repeated by the next actor…or the one after that.”
Should Cuba be wary?
You're welcome, Mary...that’s a damn reasonable question...and the honest answer...is that ANY state should pay attention when precedents like this are set.
Not because a SPECIFIC action is imminent...but...because the logic BEHIND the action...has now been tested...and shown to work.
Precedents don’t target one country...they reshape the environment. Once a justification is normalized...it becomes available for future use....by this administration or ANOTHER...wherever interests...opportunity...and leverage align.
That’s why the focus shouldn’t be on predicting the next target...but on whether limits...oversight...and norms are reinforced now...before the logic spreads further.
Thanks for making me dig, Mary. I like when people make me go deeper...because in answering... I clarify some ideas for myself...as well.
-Jack
Thank you.
Mary E. and Jack, I am appreciating every word, every concept. Thank you each!
#Holdfast!
Thank you, JPforM.
You’re welcome, Mary E.
Mary you just wrote everything I was thinking. I did not get to do it before you but thanks for doing it. #HOLDFAST
Thank you, T G.
No matter how the actions are renamed, there is no honor in doing the illegal acts in the particular situation, it would seem, and particularly when we know what the ultimate goal was and remains.
Alarm bells sounded as soon as I learned that Trump overthrew another sovereign nation. I have no love for Maduro, but we have our own boil on our backside to deal with. He has a gold encrusted oval coffin he works out of, sometimes. Mostly he vacations and plays golf. But, I digress. I knew it was a ruse the entire time of narco terrorism nonsense. I was livid our illustrious Congress sat on their thumbs and voted raises for themselves. That action should have been stopped immediately. I know the law enforcement action was a lie as well. Anytime you send US military into action, it is a war. So just another day in trumplandia. It was never about the drugs, or else he would not have freed the ex Honduras dude. It was not about relief for the fine citizens of Venezuela, or else he would not have revoked their status to stay in the US and then arrested, deported them to ElSalvador prison torture in the dead of night. It was not about regime change. It was partially about oil. It is mostly about reordering the structure of how the world order is arranged; Vlad gets Europe, XI gets Asia, and the US gets the west. You know the Con Donroe Doctrine. It says Dementia Don gets to possess whatever country he desires. What’s next? Little Marco let it slip. We may be revisiting the Bay of Pigs. Sheesh!
What caused the acceleration? He was tanking on the home front + Epstein + losing court cases + pressure to bear from us. Looks like there will be no Nobel Peace Prize for him.
#HoldFast
#2547
Jo...I hear the alarm you’re describing...and I understand why this crossed a line for you.
You’re right that disliking Maduro and questioning how this was done are NOT contradictory positions. Those distinctions matter.
You’re also right that when military force is used...the legal and constitutional questions CANNOT be waved away by labels like “law enforcement.”
That’s exactly why congressional silence and normalization are SO DAMN dangerous... not because of any single justification...but...because of what gets accepted...by DEFAULT.
I want to be careful about assigning motives...or forecasting specific next moves...but ...your core concern is a serious one: when power is exercised without clear limits...accountability...or restraint, the consequences don’t stay confined to ONE country or one MOMENT.
Holding onto that clarity...without letting it curdle into INEVITABILITY...is part of what holding fast...actually means. I appreciate you laying this out...and...I don’t dismiss the urgency behind it!
#HoldFast
-Jack
Well said and what I was thinking as i read this. He wants all the marbles...
Great article Jack! It requires Congress to reclaim what’s left of their authority, so I’ve flooded Kansas Senators local and DC voicemails demanding they do so immediately. Death by a thousand cuts, thousands of grains of sand in the authoritarian Trump regime! #HOLDFAST
Outstanding, Elizabeth. Thank you. I really respect you taking CONCRETE action.
Congressional authority only exists if it’s exercised...and pressure like THAT... does add up over time.
You’re right...it’s rarely one dramatic move that changes things...but SUSTAINED insistence on accountability. I’m grateful YOU...are doing your part...and for holding fast.
Well done!
-Jack
Thanks Jack! It sure doesn’t seem like enough to me! If I lived in Virginia, Maryland, Rhode Island I would be in DC having a huge sign and probably getting arrested I’m so pissed. This is my only way to soothe my conscience and prevent me from doing something illegal. I’m living up to the reputation of cranky old bitch! It’s actually fun, but I’d rather be having a better type of fun….. #HOLDFAST
It seems to me that they have awoken a huge beast, old women who remember, Old Bitches Unite.
And WE AIN’T PLAYIN’ unless we make up the game!!
#HoldFast
We should start the Pissed Off Old Bitches Club! I’m in, who’s with me?? 👍🥰
Motives and implications are *all over the place* according to every analysis I've read so far. Very few agree on what he's actually trying to accomplish but most agree that he's unlikely to accomplish much of anything long term. It's really about shock and awe *and EPSTEIN* IMHO.
Here are a few interesting observations:
1. The oil is pretty much a nonstarter. Trump is flat out lying about that. None of the major oil companies have agreed to invest. None of them even know the extent of investment that would be required in order to see a return. Add foreseeable long term political instability and it's just not going to happen. He's not going to live long enough for anything to come of it even if it were viable, at any rate. Nice try, Dump Truck Don.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crkr4y717k7o
The other thing is that any condemnation is unlikely to be sustained. The newly sworn president is in on the grift, most likely. She is posturing (but possibly also fomenting rebellion which might or might not be useful but not to US interests so that's something to watch).
Mexico and the rest of Latin America are going to shush and how because they don't want the eye of Sauron turning on them and with Trump's caustic unpredictability, any of them could be next and they know it.
Greenland is, of course, also outraged by Katie Millers tweet but again, they don't need any attention that might be garnered by pushing back too much. Keir Starmer, for example, isn't saying shit right now because unfortunately, the strongman act is just enough to convince both allies and enemies (which are who, again?) that you don't want to FAFO where Trump is concerned, as Kegsbreath would say.
Finally, Russia is only condemning the action until they thoughtfully pipe down because Putin is in actuality rubbing his hands together gleefully since Trump has handed him another item directly off his wishlist. It totally legitimizes foreign invasion and imperialism and Putin desperately still needs that in order to continue justifying increasing aggression against Ukraine. The condemnation is entirely performative. It similarly gives Xi a direct justification to take over Taiwan, as he has clearly begun to test out.
We're in danger. Lol.
Okay, Angie...strap in...this reply will be a bit longer than usual...but only as long as needed to appropriately address your points.
You’re zeroing in on the through-line most analysts are STILL tiptoeing around.
This isn’t a strategy. It’s a distraction event...layered on top of a LONG con...and...yes, Epstein is sitting right under it...like a dead body hidden beneath a rug...everyone keeps tripping over.
A few blunt points to sharpen what you already laid out:
1. The oil story is pure BULLSHIT theater.
You’re right. No majors are in. No capital is committed. No serious due diligence has even begun. Anyone who understands upstream investment...knows Venezuela isn’t a “drill baby drill” scenario; it’s a decades-long rehabilitation project with MASSIVE political risk.. broken infrastructure...opaque reserves...sanctions exposure...and zero rule-of-law guarantees.
Capital HATES uncertainty. Trump loves pretending uncertainty is leverage. Those two things NEVER meet. My brother-in-law is a money guy. He talks about this often.
Interestingly enough, he and his family were here at our house today (it had been abut a year)...and we discussed this very thing.
This is about saying “oil” to signal strength...not extracting a barrel.
2. Condemnation will evaporate because fear works.
You nailed this too. Most actors aren’t confused...they’re quietly self-preserving. Trump’s unpredictability is just coherent ENOUGH... to trigger FAFO paralysis.
That’s the strongman sweet spot: irrational ENOUGH to scare...rational ENOUGH to avoid immediate retaliation.
Latin America’s silence isn’t approval...it’s survival calculus.
Greenland’s outrage is real...but restrained.
Starmer’s quiet isn’t endorsement...it’s risk management.
Everyone’s lowering their profile...and hoping the spotlight moves.
That’s not diplomacy. That’s intimidation... REPLACING norms.
3. The “new president” posturing is almost certainly part of the grift.
Public resistance + private alignment is authoritarian theater 101.
It keeps domestic pressure diffuse...while preserving elite access. If rebellion bubbles up... it becomes a tool...not a threat....as long as it weakens institutions...faster than it weakens control.
Again: motion over outcome.
4. Russia and China are the actual audience.
This is the most dangerous part...AND... you’re right to flag it.
Putin doesn’t need Trump’s help militarily; he needs NARRATIVE permission.
Every time a U.S.-aligned actor blurs the line on sovereignty...Putin’s internal justification file gets THICKER.
Same for Xi. Taiwan doesn’t need to be invaded tomorrow for this to matter...it needs to be normalized...as inevitable.
The condemnations are kabuki. The PRECEDENT...is the prize.
5. And...yes ...Epstein is the accelerant.
This kind of shock-and-awe foreign spectacle...always coincides with moments when attention must be yanked elsewhere.
Trump’s pattern is consistent: when legal...reputational...or loyalty stress spikes...he manufactures scale. BIG enough to crowd out oxygen. LOUD enough to reorder headlines. CONFUSING enough to fracture analysis.
Every con he runs serves two purposes:
1. Project dominance
2. Scramble accountability
This one does both...BADLY...but badly doesn’t matter short-term.
So when people ask, “What’s he really trying to accomplish?” the answer is:
Not policy. Not stability. Not even success.
He’s trying to:
*Reassert personal centrality
*Legitimize raw power
*Flood the zone
*And...BUY TIME.
Long term? You’re right...almost NOTHING here holds.
Short term? It destabilizes norms just ENOUGH to be useful.
And that’s why, no lol...we actually ARE in danger.
-Jack
Jack, I appreciate your description. It seems to me, as it has seemed for a number of years now, partly because he was heard saying that everything is his, that the dictators cheer each other on as they take control in various places through various ways. That is an early step in their schemes. Having fewer leaders as competition helps them all, or each.
The bigger plan has seemed that only they will be owners or controllers of the Earth. However, the personalities do not seem the type to be satisfied by sharing with anyone. It would not be surprising for any one of them to attempt to take over the others, whether they number more than two, merely two, or only one. In this supposition, which might seem extremely wild, I cannot help but wonder what would come next following becoming owner or dictator of the Earth.
I am not convinced that any one of them would be satisfied to own or control only part of our world. It seems that their greed would become so apparent that there would be no trust among or between the number of them. And when there would be only one leader or dictator, if our congress fails to act fast, correctly, and thoroughly, wouldn’t it be “lonely at the top?” Would the lack of competition create a letdown once a major goal was achieved? What then? The planets, I suppose, but it seems that nothing would satisfy one of them or any of them for long.
It also seems above all, that getting along fairly and genuinely well with leaders around the world, and all acting harmoniously to do good and make better lives for everyone, while giving people choices they appreciate, would be ever so much more rewarding and worthwhile as well as admirable.
Invading a sovereign country is WAY bigger than the Epstein Files. The Global order has gone from Civilization to Barbarism. Overnight. If this insanity is allowed to stand, any country can now invade another and take what it wants if it can. The madman must be impeached, then convicted and removed from office. By the end of January, latest. Our Republican Senators have the power to do this.
You put great thought into that Angie! Well said 👏🏻👏🏻
I believe it’s much too early to draw conclusions about what “success” this regime change might mean in moving the Overton Window on international relations. We’ve not seen the collateral consequences to Venezuela and the region overall from “running” a broken, if not failed, state while stealing the country’s resources comes to bear. It certainly is an audacious con, but of the series of cons he’s executed, which of them have resulted in anything but turmoil?
Frank, you’re exactly right....and you’re pointing at the REAL mistake analysts keep making.
Calling this “success” is classic "outcome-before-consequences" thinking.
Authoritarian cons ALWAYS look brilliant in the short run...because they’re judged on motion...not results. Power seized. Institutions sidelined. Resources extracted. Optics controlled. Applause from people who confuse AUDACITY...with competence.
But the Overton Window...doesn’t move on theft...it moves on stability...PLUS legitimacy. And this regime...has neither.
Running a broken or failed state...while looting it is not a strategy...it’s a burn rate.
Venezuela isn’t just a domestic disaster...it’s a regional pressure cooker. Refugee flows... criminal spillover...capital flight...cartel entanglement...sanctions feedback loops.
None of that shows up in the “strongman success” headlines...until it does.
And...history is brutally consistent here:
Every major con he’s run follows the same arc.
*Shock and awe (looks bold, feels decisive)
*Short-term extraction (resources, loyalty, leverage)
*System stress (institutions hollowed out, incentives rot)
*Cascading instability (economic, regional, political)
*Blame shifting (“foreign enemies,” “saboteurs,” “elites”)
Which of those ended in durable order? NONE.
That’s the part cheerleaders never answer:
Name one con that produced anything but turmoil once the bill came due.
Audacity is NOT vision.
Chaos is NOT leverage.
And stealing a country’s future...NEVER widens the Overton Window...it just narrows the runway...before impact.
You’re not early...you’re ahead.
-Jack
“It demonstrated how easily the language of “law enforcement,” “necessity,” and “temporary control” can be stitched together to justify unilateral power…without meaningful constraint…and…without a clear off-ramp.
Once you see that, the appropriate response is not outrage.
It’s focus.
The people who protect democratic norms don’t do it by yelling louder. They do it by refusing to let new rules become invisible.
That’s the mindset shift required now.”. Thank you @jackhopkins
Looks like an inside job to me...Entebbe 2.0 ? I don't believe so...perfect execution? not without inside knowledge and participation (in a land far, far away a long time ago us Grunts didn't particularly like Chinooks because of Strela heat seeking missiles) and now you are trying to convince me that many Chinooks loitered in a hot AO that long without receiving fire in the age of manpads...something stinks like collusion...and the timing? New Years weekend right on the heels of the Jack Smith revelations and increasing pressure from the trumpstein files? a desperate attempt at diversion and the part that pisses me off the most is that if this Treasonous piece of feces gets away with this he will have co-opted our Military...and he will turn them against the Citizens of our nation...buckle up boys and girls, this is about to get fugly...
Yes! The threat that was even more acute and had the potential to blow up in his face with a much greater shorter term explosion than Epstein, at least for that moment, was Smith's deposition. Trump desperately needed cover for both of those things, something big. So he found (manufactured) a bigger story.
Thank you Jack for this❗️
You are an explainer in Chief like Maddow❗️
Deep breath. Clarity & Focus..
💜✊🏻💜
Jack, my senators are having a “News conference” at 9:30 from Doral, FL, in other words, Trump’s golf club. I can already hear their framing, which will be exactly what you just described. Neither of them will condemn this. There will be no push back from those two. I have been making calls with demands for accountability,I know it’s shouting into a void. Watching the news, with the climate Trump created in the Caribbean, Americans who are cruising and traveling to that region should have real concerns. Mexico and Columbia and Cuba all on high alert. Trump threatening them. My MAGA neighbors are leaving on a cruise to Mexico, Belize and Honduras. They are gleefully packing thinking we have a “strong President”. I worry those countries will not be so welcoming to the dumb Americans who think all is ok. It is not okay. This President and his cabinet have no concern for our citizens safety. Welcome to the Trump reality.
Hi Jack - yes, thanks for laying this out. My only comment is that it seems to give trump too much credit. I could be wrong, but I don’t see him “engineering” this or responsible for the “strategy”. I have always sensed his position as president is suiting some very powerful people and that he’s “allowing” things to happen rather than being any sort of mastermind. Would be interesting to know who exactly is.
Jack, thank you for the perfect way you have enumerated the steps and presented this whole situation. The reality as you present it is exactly how I see it, and it is impossible to understand how anyone could blindly accept the “wrapper” as you call it, labeling it as anything other than what it is.
These behaviors of anyone in an executive position in our country. or in any country, are unacceptable and are not who we are.
While your majorly important emphasis on remaining calm and vigilant or alert is of the essence, it is not only appropriate but is the ultimately demanded approach in all of this situation, the underlying reaction - the one beneath the calmness of the surface, and it is one of both emotion and a heavy thud, a feeling beyond embarrassment, a heavy sickness at the fact that anyone could behave as has been done, to control and rob another country, its government, and its perceived wealth, and in the process, bring such shame on our country or set a precedent while hoping to take future steps in owning more and more of the world, while being unethical, unchallenged, unquestioned. That is not greatness. It is not wisdom or bravery. It is not acceptable, and it is not the American way. It must not become the American way. Of course, we “see” or can predict future steps in the plan, but they must not happen. Our calm actions and attitudes must convince the people who can legally prevent it, to do so, unanimously.
Getting back to the calmness you so rightly point out overall, I continue to feel it with a heavily weighted thud inside me, and I hope that now my representative and all representatives and senators will see the situation for what it is, what it must not be, and what it must not become. They have the power to act collectively now if only one hundred percent of them will find the integrity and wisdom to do so.
I believe that leaving a phone message for each of our own congressional leaders and others is the best approach. In case anyone needs to know, the spreadsheet of all congressional numbers and contact information was created by Megan or Meghan Rothery. It should be available on line. If I find it soon, I will try to paste it in a response here. As she wisrlyvpointed out, by calling after office hours, we can leave a message without being blocked by living in an area with a different zip code. During hours, if we are outside the area of constituents, we are not allowed to leave a message. Further, I believe that calls and written. mailed, and emailed messages matter, but probably phone messages will be the hardest for anyone to ignore.
(After thought: We have known all along that the person wants to own the world and control it and its wealth. The desire was clear, but the method was not. The actions leading up to it were somewhat indicative, but the actual method of “control” was not.
We also knew before the immunity situation was allowed, that certain people were in on it. Let us hope that the persistant integrity of faithful servants within our government, and reclaimed/resurfacing of lost integrity of those elected servants who have fallen, will become strong and united to do what is right for the sake of doing what is right, for the sake of all of the people everywhere humanity and respect, for the sake of upholding America, and for the sake of restoring our image in the world and our friendships and alliances in turn. Nobody can trust a country with the actions which recently took and are taking place by the person and the accomplices.
Thank you for all you do, Jack. I will read comments, but I like to answer before I read them so I am thinking for myself. Then I can learn eagerly, as time allows, by reading other commenters’ thoughts. I’m sure we each are grateful for you, your wisdom, and this opportunity.
#Holdfast always!
Thank you for the structural analysis Jack. As always, very helpful as in... how to handle this. My stomach has settled and I’ve been analyzing, observing and interjecting when it felt appropriate to do so. This will be my guide for now. I’ve seen all the reactions .. condemnation… from the international community and otherwise so far and I’m watching to see who does what. Time will tell. I wish I thought Congress would act in some meaningful way… I don’t. If you disagree I’d love to hear it. Will ANYONE take any action? Legal or otherwise?
I’m VERY concerned about the actions of our military and I know you are too. I read the comments… always.. so I understand why you’re not saying more here and now. I hope at some point you’ll share your thoughts.
I expected an attack. He’d been shouting it for months… AND becoming increasingly unhinged but kidnapping Maduro and his wife wasn’t on my 2926 Bingo Card but here we are *sigh*
I look forward to your next article whatever that might be.
Thanks Jack!
#HOLDFAST
~Susan
As your Canadian neighbour, my feeling is, unless Congress steps in, and soon, these actions will not be “ unique “or “ temporary “ for very long, before they become “ necessary “.
They’re already talking Greenland, Cuba, Columbia and God help them if they even TRY, CANADA‼️ I don’t think their actions are “ unique “ This is a test balloon
America's dependence on oil has always created the pillage of oil-rich countries, both in the Eastern and Western hemispheres. Instead of digging deeper and deeper into the bottom of the barrel, how about the "energy" oligarchs start adopting the successful strategies of other countries that have diminished and/or eliminated use of fossil fuels.
TO CONTACT SENATORS AND REPRESENTATIVES:
Here is the link for the spreadsheet Megan Rothery created for convenience in contacting people in Congress. She has made it available in a number of substacks, including, bout not necessarily limited to, those of Prof. Robert Reich and Dr. Heather Cox Richardson.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/13lYafj0P-6owAJcH-5_xcpcRvMUZI7rkBPW-Ma9e7hw/htmlview
#HOLDFAST!