You’re right Jack — and this piece says what most people are either too scared or too uninformed to say out loud. Iran is not some rogue regime you can knock over like a chess piece and walk away from. It is a country with thousands of years of history, a government deliberately built to survive pressure, and a population that has watched foreign powers come for them over and over again. And every single time, Iran is still there when the dust settles. That’s not a defense of the mullahs — that’s just paying attention to how the world actually works. You’re right that the people who ordered this war from a golf resort clearly haven’t been.
What keeps me up at night — and you’re right to raise it Jack — is what happens next with their nuclear program. You can blow up a building. You can’t blow up what the engineers already know. And when a country genuinely believes it is fighting for its survival, it starts making decisions it wouldn’t otherwise make. We may have just given Iran every reason to cross a line they’ve been careful not to cross for years. Dubai, Doha, Manama, Haifa, Cyprus, Pakistan — none of this stayed contained because it was never going to stay contained. Nobody sitting at that Mar-a-Lago dinner the night the bombs dropped was thinking about what Iran would do next. They were thinking about the fundraiser. And now the rest of us are paying for it.
Jane...you nailed the core frame: Iran as a system built for continuity...not some ridiculous ass domino you flick with your finger... and then ...BOOM...you've “mission accomplished” your way out of the consequences. That’s not sympathy...it’s literacy.
Your point about the nuclear dimension...is THE part that FAR too many people dodge... because it’s too damn uncomfortable: you can destroy facilities; you CANNOT delete knowledge.
When a state starts feeling existential...the incentive structure shifts fast, and ambiguity becomes a weapon.
As we've seen many times before...escalation rarely stays “over there." Markets, shipping lanes, bases, and partners are ALL part of the same web now...which is why your list of places stands out.
HKJANE, thank you for mentioning the Mar-a-Lago “gala” that 🍊boy drug himself away from to make his “war” announcement. When I saw videos of him “dancing” with that white baseball hat on, it was so creepy. Thoughts of the French Revolution, the Irish Potato famine and the US Gilded Age ran through my mind! I’ve been calling this second go-around of 🍊 boy’s administration “Gilded Age Redux.” I think the 21st techno & media robber barons make the 19th century ones look like amateurs. I just don’t believe 🍊boy has ever been smart enough to run with the nerds but he is a useful narcissistic dupe.
Nuclear weaponry and bad actors are always in the corners of my mind. Too many nuclear drills from my childhood nightmares still linger. I read that today’s young people, born in late ‘90s - mid 2000, are thought to have been “traumatized” by 9/11. I’m not sure traumatized is the word that comes to mind so much as “normalization.” My concern, as a retired child development professor, is the constant exposure to violent computer games and other media platforms. It seems to have desensitized young people in ways that the threat of nuclear war heightened fear and concern of the Boomer generation but did not normalize these fears as our reality. Our “war” play was pretty mild, with only the graphics we could conjure up in our minds……we didn’t have the graphic and all too realistic games and videos telling our brain to accept what we saw as our reality.
Thanks again for your post / I appreciate the replys that you regularly post.
Sue - no argument from me……ICE and school shootings are terrifying for sure. I’ve helped “train” preschoolers in our college child study lab how to act during active shooter drills!
In a report from the American Academy of Pediatrics notes that the majority of our children, over the past 25 years (many now young adults), have seen 8,000 murders and 100,000 other acts of violence, including rape and assault, before middle school.
The report’s author, Dr. Christakis offers this advice: “The media and gaming industry needs to produce children’s games and entertainment that do not contain violence. To keep a game’s appeal and adrenaline rush, game producers resort to intensifying violence and this is affecting our kids.” It’s about the 💰
ONE child terrified by school violence, ICE, or media violence is one child TOO MANY!
It breaks my heart to see children immersed in death and man's inhumanity. When my Sudanese sons were airlifted here in 2001 just before and in at least one case during 9/11, they had already seen more death than most will ever see, at least that is what I thought naively back then.
Was Dr Christakis talking about game violence with her number 8,000? I don't think we are there quite yet in real life in this country, but of course, children might not differentiate between fantasy and reality. The children in Gaza and Ukraine, and several other countries have experienced huge quantities of violence, either against themselves or those around them.
My heart also breaks for children who are robbed of their right to live life free of violence but sadly, few escape. It comes down to the extent of the damage-but for the grace of God.
Dr. Christakis took into account all media platforms….video games, television, human violence, etc. What grieves me is when I see a toddler sitting next to an adult, both of them engaged with their own cellphone or iPad! The loss of human engagement is tragic-it will be my grandchild’s generation who will pay the price…….
Thank you, Jack. Very informative article. Makes perfect sense the way you laid it all out and I appreciate that.
I hope we can ride out the storm and somehow right the ship here.
While this is certainly a concerning distraction… my focus is still on the Epstein network… the survivors… and most of all… the midterms. We have to find a way to defeat their plans to hold onto power… we just have to. There is no other option that I can see.
I wonder that this ill-conceived war might not end up backfiring on them. Thoughts?
Sue P., your comment reminds me of my cousins who were in first grade or so during World War II. I was born soon after the war, so did not go to school in those years. They told of me that they were terrified as children because the news reels which were shown at theaters were also shown in the schools in the city every morning. My cousins who lived in rural areas did not have those news reels.
A particular crucial event in this country was being televised on the Monday morning, and some children, whether at home or at school, were exposed to what was shown. I think some children did not process it. I know of other children who had bad dreams and were deeply affected.
Throughout history, many disasters of various scales, whether threats such as you describe and are ongoing concerns for people at schools and their families, or whether other disasters and situations requiring calmness and drills for possible needs, children and adults have far too much to worry over. Being prepared helps. Analyzing helps. Learning helps., yet it is hard on the children. Some places there is the continual ICE scare as well. There are bullies in some schools to complicate what should be a peaceful, happy learning environment. These awarenesses and the memories of them follow individuals all of their lives.
James...there are many songs from that era...with lines like that where you can reflect deeply for hours...and apply to real-life situations. Dylan's line is no exception.
Ytram...you’re most welcome. And...like almost everything Trump does...there’s an embedded act of defiance here: defiance of Congress...AND...defiance of the American people.
I’ll be honest...I have ZERO interest right now in litigating the “case” for why strikes on Iran were necessary. I don’t give a damn.
What I DO care about...and what’s far more worth analyzing...is the pattern: the most dangerous man in the world behaving as if laws...rules...and constitutional limits don’t apply to him. Donald John Trump.
Your analysis is not just interesting and informative but also different, especially when anyone considers what our president and his war cabinet is thinking about. I get the impression from their statements, posturing, postures, insulation and behavior they have not been thinking this through. They are like painters who have overlooked old nail holes, plaster condition, and outdated construction techniques and materials and just slather paint wherever. It’s the next owner who will do the reconstruction.
That painter analogy is sharp! It captures something important: surface action versus structural consequence.
You can cover imperfections for a while...but....underlying conditions don’t disappear...just because they’ve been coated over. Eventually...someone has to deal with what was IGNORED.
That’s the distinction I try to keep drawing....between optics and architecture.
Statements, posture...and short-term signaling are one layer. The downstream implications...regional balance...escalation incentives...institutional strain...are ANOTHER layer entirely.
Whether someone agrees with the policy...or not...the real question is always: What second- and third-order effects...are being accounted for? That’s where serious strategy lives.
I’m grateful you’re thinking at that level. That’s the whole point of this space...not reacting to the paint...but examining the foundation!
Thanks, Jack. I’m extremely selective who I watch on MSNOW. I’ve given up on all other “cable/streaming” channels. I rely on your newsletter to help me see the critical thinking or the “so what” behind issues facing our world.
Critical thinking is a skill that is practiced too little today. It takes time, requires research, demands 360 observation and it is built upon inference, open-mindedness and the ability to evaluate evidence & biases.
Your critical thinking skills plus your rich liberal arts exposure plus your vast experience leave the media talking heads with their one minute sound bites at first base, wondering how you got all the way around the bases!
Keep up the great work-I know I’ve come to rely on your steady, forthright, & articulate approach to today’s world.
PS - hope you enjoy baseball. I love college baseball and I find myself using so many baseball analogies to describe how I “see” events. 😉
The goal has never been to compete with cable panels trading hot takes. It’s to slow the moment down just enough to ask, “Okay… so what? What actually follows from this?”
That requires exactly what you described: time, context, evidence, bias checks, and a willingness to zoom out before reacting.
Critical thinking isn’t flashy. It doesn’t fit in a 60-second segment. But...it’s the difference between reacting to noise and recognizing pattern.
Your baseball analogy is perfect!
Most commentary never leaves the batter’s box. It reacts to the pitch in front of it. What we’re trying to do here is read the inning, the bullpen...the weather...the schedule...the whole game state. Strategy, not swing.
I’m grateful you rely on this space for that. That...is great! The steadiness matters. Especially now.
And...yes...I appreciate a good baseball analogy. The long game always tells you more than the highlight reel. (I also love baseball...and can't wait for another summer of games.)
By the way, I generally do NOT try to slow things down on social media. It is...much of the time...where I unload more intense and emotionally loaded comments. Something I enjoy a great deal, and need to have in my life...for my own sanity.
Here...I focus. Because this...and the group we have...and the thinking we do, that's real life. Social media is more like a chaotic...loaded with nitwits...game show.
Not here. That's why the paid level is the smartest thing any Substack writer can utilize.
When people have to reach into their wallets...and invest their own money...VERY few nitwits slide through the cracks. That means we ALL get to enjoy and engage in intelligent discussions...without having to deal with idiocy.
There are foreign parties playing 🍊💩 like a fiddle, and he’s so enamored with his perceived notion of being the deal maker to profit from the chaos, he’s forgetting he will have to answer for his actions. He can’t lay the blame on anyone else (the buck stops here.)
Sure as hell, CC. When you’re driven by ego and the “deal-maker” fantasy...you become easy to steer...especially by outsiders who understand your tells...and know exactly which buttons to press.
Rest assured...whatever the justifications and finger-pointing, responsibility doesn’t transfer.
Decisions made from that seat...especially ones that gamble with escalation...and on the person who CHOSE them. He can try to outsource the story later...but...he CANNOT outsource the consequences.
Your analyses make practical sense. Persian culture and history are fascinating and pretty damn brilliant. Thanks for shining the light where the focus should be once again.
Persian history is one of those long arcs...that forces you to zoom out. When you study a civilization that’s absorbed empires and still retained identity...you start thinking in different time horizons.
That shift alone...changes how you interpret today’s headlines.
And...that’s really the point here: move the light from personalities to PATTERNS, from noise...to STRUCTURE.
“Because I’m watching the engine…not the headlights” is exactly why you are the cream of the crop in what passes for journalism these days. You dig the rocks from the dirt, clear the weeds of distraction and plant seeds of knowledge for the discerning reader. It’s prep for the oncoming storm so our roots are deep and our stalks don’t break. Once it passes, your readers will still be standing.
(This must be metaphor day!)
In the early 70’s, dear family friends had an opportunity to work in Iran with WHO. They were mesmerized by the country and devastated when it fell five years after their return. They would agree with everything you so perfectly explained.
Here is my friend’s (who is now 82) reply to your piece. He adds the #1 next war issue that is never addressed. Water wars.
Thank you for sharing this information about Iran and its future. One factor that get discussed in the discussion these days in the US is climate change. We already know that Tehran is under pressure because it is running out of water and as it runs out of water it will run out of food and when it runs out of food, it won't be able to keep its citizens totally under the control of the elites. It would be interesting to hear Jack Hopkins respond to this idea. It is a well known fact that the Tigres/Euphrates rivers are well below historical levels and those two rivers feed Iran with water at a more significant degree that most people realize. Already many immigrants going to Europe are going from Syria, Turkey, Iraq because they simply can't grow enough food to survive. The sad news is that climate change will effect mass extinction in many parts of the world more readily than bombs and stupid people like Trump and his manical buddies like Netanyahu, Putin, Orban, and others.
If you want to read something fascinating, find Jeremy Rifkin's "Planet Aqua". Or for a different take on all of this, see if you can find a book entitled "Progress" by Samuel Miller McDonald. The full name is Progress: How one idea built civilization and now threatens to destroy it. It's a heavy slog, but on point in may ways.
Not sure if this works for you. The typing is in a small screen.
If you touch the "arrow" at the bottom right of your screen (all the way down), and nothing else, it brings up what you are writing. Still have to be careful of the "submit" button.
Also as people add to the thread in their comments the thing you are at can move.
It is still there, but as comments keep coming it can move.
Or you can wait a bit until the comments settle down. Sometimes takes a while.
We’re built as a layered system: separated powers...federalism...courts...and a professional civil service that persists across presidents.
What’s not guaranteed is the culture that keeps that system functioning. When leaders demand personal loyalty...bypass norms...or try to concentrate control over enforcement and staffing...the system can be pressured toward personality-rule even if the Constitution doesn’t change. Unfortunately.
I have lived in six Muslim countries, visited more, including lived in Iran 18 months just before Khomeini returned to the country [ his fiery sermons and speeches were the most popular cassettes on the street]. Persians have a very ingrained sense of recognition and pride in their political-cultural longevity, which in the scheme of things ,has not been Islamic for most of existence, and even now is not mainstream being largely Shia. Judaism, Zoroastrianism, Bahai - those 2 very tiny slivers, and Christianity [Armenian Orthodox, Chaldean.] It was a mixed salad but culturally was more cohesive than one might expect. Having their collective hand on the button should not only scare us, but the Arabian peninsula, the Med and Indian Ocean . Reminding that a Local pi**ing contest involves nukes in Israel, Iran, Pakistan and India .
Lynne, your LIVED experience there matters...a hell of a lot; 18 months in Iran right before Khomeini returned (and the cassette sermons) is REAL ground truth.
You’re also dead-on about Persian civilizational memory: it predates the regime...predates Islam...and it creates a cohesion outsiders routinely miss.
Shia distinctiveness plus that long political-cultural pride...changes how Iran absorbs pressure.
On nukes...Israel is widely understood to have them; Pakistan and India openly do...Iran doesn’t have an acknowledged arsenal...BUT...has advanced capabilities.
That mix is exactly why “local” contests can become regional...miscalculation is the danger when multiple nuclear-armed....or near-threshold actors...sit in overlapping theaters.
Sounds like you've lived a rich...and meaningful life. I've learned more from traveling abroad than I ever learned from a book.
Thanks, Jack. Your analysis makes complete sense, although every once in awhile I had a synapse failure and thought you were talking about this country.
"Its economy is constrained. Oil exports are limited. Infrastructure is aging. Youth dissatisfaction is real. Brain drain exists."
Remember in 2017? trump was enjoying the "most beautiful chocolate cake" with Xi while,they discussed the bombing of Syria. Never let the murdering of thousands stand in the way of dessert.
Sue P...I get the synapse glitch. Those stress markers can damn sure feel uncomfortably transferable...even when the context is different.
Yes...I remember that 2017 moment because of what it signaled. Not that leaders don’t conduct grim business over meals (they always have), but...that tone reveals priorities.
When something as lethal as a strike gets narrated through a dessert detail...it tells you how lightly consequences can be carried in the room where decisions get made.
That contrast...spectacle versus gravity...is EXACTLY what I’m trying to keep readers alert to!
I appreciate how you list your sources. It's one of the big reasons why I support your work - I know you're doing more than just spewing out an opinion. The analysis you provide is exactly the insight I want on these complicated & complex events were living through. Thank you!
🚩Here is the link from Senator Tammy Duckworth to sign Senator Tim Kaine’s War Resolution Calling Republicans back to Congress Immediately. I signed it and hope more people will sign and share it.
You’re right Jack — and this piece says what most people are either too scared or too uninformed to say out loud. Iran is not some rogue regime you can knock over like a chess piece and walk away from. It is a country with thousands of years of history, a government deliberately built to survive pressure, and a population that has watched foreign powers come for them over and over again. And every single time, Iran is still there when the dust settles. That’s not a defense of the mullahs — that’s just paying attention to how the world actually works. You’re right that the people who ordered this war from a golf resort clearly haven’t been.
What keeps me up at night — and you’re right to raise it Jack — is what happens next with their nuclear program. You can blow up a building. You can’t blow up what the engineers already know. And when a country genuinely believes it is fighting for its survival, it starts making decisions it wouldn’t otherwise make. We may have just given Iran every reason to cross a line they’ve been careful not to cross for years. Dubai, Doha, Manama, Haifa, Cyprus, Pakistan — none of this stayed contained because it was never going to stay contained. Nobody sitting at that Mar-a-Lago dinner the night the bombs dropped was thinking about what Iran would do next. They were thinking about the fundraiser. And now the rest of us are paying for it.
#HOLDFAST
Jane...you nailed the core frame: Iran as a system built for continuity...not some ridiculous ass domino you flick with your finger... and then ...BOOM...you've “mission accomplished” your way out of the consequences. That’s not sympathy...it’s literacy.
Your point about the nuclear dimension...is THE part that FAR too many people dodge... because it’s too damn uncomfortable: you can destroy facilities; you CANNOT delete knowledge.
When a state starts feeling existential...the incentive structure shifts fast, and ambiguity becomes a weapon.
As we've seen many times before...escalation rarely stays “over there." Markets, shipping lanes, bases, and partners are ALL part of the same web now...which is why your list of places stands out.
Hold fast. You’re seeing the board!
-Jack
HKJANE, thank you for mentioning the Mar-a-Lago “gala” that 🍊boy drug himself away from to make his “war” announcement. When I saw videos of him “dancing” with that white baseball hat on, it was so creepy. Thoughts of the French Revolution, the Irish Potato famine and the US Gilded Age ran through my mind! I’ve been calling this second go-around of 🍊 boy’s administration “Gilded Age Redux.” I think the 21st techno & media robber barons make the 19th century ones look like amateurs. I just don’t believe 🍊boy has ever been smart enough to run with the nerds but he is a useful narcissistic dupe.
Nuclear weaponry and bad actors are always in the corners of my mind. Too many nuclear drills from my childhood nightmares still linger. I read that today’s young people, born in late ‘90s - mid 2000, are thought to have been “traumatized” by 9/11. I’m not sure traumatized is the word that comes to mind so much as “normalization.” My concern, as a retired child development professor, is the constant exposure to violent computer games and other media platforms. It seems to have desensitized young people in ways that the threat of nuclear war heightened fear and concern of the Boomer generation but did not normalize these fears as our reality. Our “war” play was pretty mild, with only the graphics we could conjure up in our minds……we didn’t have the graphic and all too realistic games and videos telling our brain to accept what we saw as our reality.
Thanks again for your post / I appreciate the replys that you regularly post.
Diana
I think our young are more terrorized by school mass shootings and ICE raids these days.
Sue - no argument from me……ICE and school shootings are terrifying for sure. I’ve helped “train” preschoolers in our college child study lab how to act during active shooter drills!
In a report from the American Academy of Pediatrics notes that the majority of our children, over the past 25 years (many now young adults), have seen 8,000 murders and 100,000 other acts of violence, including rape and assault, before middle school.
The report’s author, Dr. Christakis offers this advice: “The media and gaming industry needs to produce children’s games and entertainment that do not contain violence. To keep a game’s appeal and adrenaline rush, game producers resort to intensifying violence and this is affecting our kids.” It’s about the 💰
ONE child terrified by school violence, ICE, or media violence is one child TOO MANY!
Diana
It breaks my heart to see children immersed in death and man's inhumanity. When my Sudanese sons were airlifted here in 2001 just before and in at least one case during 9/11, they had already seen more death than most will ever see, at least that is what I thought naively back then.
Was Dr Christakis talking about game violence with her number 8,000? I don't think we are there quite yet in real life in this country, but of course, children might not differentiate between fantasy and reality. The children in Gaza and Ukraine, and several other countries have experienced huge quantities of violence, either against themselves or those around them.
Sue
Sue
My heart also breaks for children who are robbed of their right to live life free of violence but sadly, few escape. It comes down to the extent of the damage-but for the grace of God.
Dr. Christakis took into account all media platforms….video games, television, human violence, etc. What grieves me is when I see a toddler sitting next to an adult, both of them engaged with their own cellphone or iPad! The loss of human engagement is tragic-it will be my grandchild’s generation who will pay the price…….
That is for sure, generations to come.
Thank you, Jack. Very informative article. Makes perfect sense the way you laid it all out and I appreciate that.
I hope we can ride out the storm and somehow right the ship here.
While this is certainly a concerning distraction… my focus is still on the Epstein network… the survivors… and most of all… the midterms. We have to find a way to defeat their plans to hold onto power… we just have to. There is no other option that I can see.
I wonder that this ill-conceived war might not end up backfiring on them. Thoughts?
As always, glad I’m here.
#HOLDFAST
~Susan
Sue P., your comment reminds me of my cousins who were in first grade or so during World War II. I was born soon after the war, so did not go to school in those years. They told of me that they were terrified as children because the news reels which were shown at theaters were also shown in the schools in the city every morning. My cousins who lived in rural areas did not have those news reels.
A particular crucial event in this country was being televised on the Monday morning, and some children, whether at home or at school, were exposed to what was shown. I think some children did not process it. I know of other children who had bad dreams and were deeply affected.
Throughout history, many disasters of various scales, whether threats such as you describe and are ongoing concerns for people at schools and their families, or whether other disasters and situations requiring calmness and drills for possible needs, children and adults have far too much to worry over. Being prepared helps. Analyzing helps. Learning helps., yet it is hard on the children. Some places there is the continual ICE scare as well. There are bullies in some schools to complicate what should be a peaceful, happy learning environment. These awarenesses and the memories of them follow individuals all of their lives.
"and in the end, they won the war, after losing every battle"...B Dylan...
James...there are many songs from that era...with lines like that where you can reflect deeply for hours...and apply to real-life situations. Dylan's line is no exception.
-Jack
Thank you for the thoughtful analysis in a horrible situation being steered by imbeciles.
Ytram...you’re most welcome. And...like almost everything Trump does...there’s an embedded act of defiance here: defiance of Congress...AND...defiance of the American people.
I’ll be honest...I have ZERO interest right now in litigating the “case” for why strikes on Iran were necessary. I don’t give a damn.
What I DO care about...and what’s far more worth analyzing...is the pattern: the most dangerous man in the world behaving as if laws...rules...and constitutional limits don’t apply to him. Donald John Trump.
I'm glad you're here, Ytram.
-Jack
Your analysis is not just interesting and informative but also different, especially when anyone considers what our president and his war cabinet is thinking about. I get the impression from their statements, posturing, postures, insulation and behavior they have not been thinking this through. They are like painters who have overlooked old nail holes, plaster condition, and outdated construction techniques and materials and just slather paint wherever. It’s the next owner who will do the reconstruction.
Douglas...I really appreciate this.
That painter analogy is sharp! It captures something important: surface action versus structural consequence.
You can cover imperfections for a while...but....underlying conditions don’t disappear...just because they’ve been coated over. Eventually...someone has to deal with what was IGNORED.
That’s the distinction I try to keep drawing....between optics and architecture.
Statements, posture...and short-term signaling are one layer. The downstream implications...regional balance...escalation incentives...institutional strain...are ANOTHER layer entirely.
Whether someone agrees with the policy...or not...the real question is always: What second- and third-order effects...are being accounted for? That’s where serious strategy lives.
I’m grateful you’re thinking at that level. That’s the whole point of this space...not reacting to the paint...but examining the foundation!
-Jack
Thanks, Jack. I’m extremely selective who I watch on MSNOW. I’ve given up on all other “cable/streaming” channels. I rely on your newsletter to help me see the critical thinking or the “so what” behind issues facing our world.
Critical thinking is a skill that is practiced too little today. It takes time, requires research, demands 360 observation and it is built upon inference, open-mindedness and the ability to evaluate evidence & biases.
Your critical thinking skills plus your rich liberal arts exposure plus your vast experience leave the media talking heads with their one minute sound bites at first base, wondering how you got all the way around the bases!
Keep up the great work-I know I’ve come to rely on your steady, forthright, & articulate approach to today’s world.
PS - hope you enjoy baseball. I love college baseball and I find myself using so many baseball analogies to describe how I “see” events. 😉
Diana...this means a lot...truly.
The goal has never been to compete with cable panels trading hot takes. It’s to slow the moment down just enough to ask, “Okay… so what? What actually follows from this?”
That requires exactly what you described: time, context, evidence, bias checks, and a willingness to zoom out before reacting.
Critical thinking isn’t flashy. It doesn’t fit in a 60-second segment. But...it’s the difference between reacting to noise and recognizing pattern.
Your baseball analogy is perfect!
Most commentary never leaves the batter’s box. It reacts to the pitch in front of it. What we’re trying to do here is read the inning, the bullpen...the weather...the schedule...the whole game state. Strategy, not swing.
I’m grateful you rely on this space for that. That...is great! The steadiness matters. Especially now.
And...yes...I appreciate a good baseball analogy. The long game always tells you more than the highlight reel. (I also love baseball...and can't wait for another summer of games.)
By the way, I generally do NOT try to slow things down on social media. It is...much of the time...where I unload more intense and emotionally loaded comments. Something I enjoy a great deal, and need to have in my life...for my own sanity.
Here...I focus. Because this...and the group we have...and the thinking we do, that's real life. Social media is more like a chaotic...loaded with nitwits...game show.
Not here. That's why the paid level is the smartest thing any Substack writer can utilize.
When people have to reach into their wallets...and invest their own money...VERY few nitwits slide through the cracks. That means we ALL get to enjoy and engage in intelligent discussions...without having to deal with idiocy.
-Jack
It’s amazing what the game of baseball can teach you about the “game” of life!
There are foreign parties playing 🍊💩 like a fiddle, and he’s so enamored with his perceived notion of being the deal maker to profit from the chaos, he’s forgetting he will have to answer for his actions. He can’t lay the blame on anyone else (the buck stops here.)
Sure as hell, CC. When you’re driven by ego and the “deal-maker” fantasy...you become easy to steer...especially by outsiders who understand your tells...and know exactly which buttons to press.
Rest assured...whatever the justifications and finger-pointing, responsibility doesn’t transfer.
Decisions made from that seat...especially ones that gamble with escalation...and on the person who CHOSE them. He can try to outsource the story later...but...he CANNOT outsource the consequences.
-Jack
Great article,makes the most sense from any other explanation. Thank you. #HOLDFAST
Mary Lockhart...you're welcome. I appreciate the kind words. Thank YOU.
#HOLDFAST
-Jack
Your analyses make practical sense. Persian culture and history are fascinating and pretty damn brilliant. Thanks for shining the light where the focus should be once again.
#HoldFast, bud
Rae...I appreciate that..truly.
Persian history is one of those long arcs...that forces you to zoom out. When you study a civilization that’s absorbed empires and still retained identity...you start thinking in different time horizons.
That shift alone...changes how you interpret today’s headlines.
And...that’s really the point here: move the light from personalities to PATTERNS, from noise...to STRUCTURE.
Hold fast right back at you, Rae!
-Jack
“Because I’m watching the engine…not the headlights” is exactly why you are the cream of the crop in what passes for journalism these days. You dig the rocks from the dirt, clear the weeds of distraction and plant seeds of knowledge for the discerning reader. It’s prep for the oncoming storm so our roots are deep and our stalks don’t break. Once it passes, your readers will still be standing.
(This must be metaphor day!)
In the early 70’s, dear family friends had an opportunity to work in Iran with WHO. They were mesmerized by the country and devastated when it fell five years after their return. They would agree with everything you so perfectly explained.
:) Thanks for being here, Kimberly!
-Jack
Here is my friend’s (who is now 82) reply to your piece. He adds the #1 next war issue that is never addressed. Water wars.
Thank you for sharing this information about Iran and its future. One factor that get discussed in the discussion these days in the US is climate change. We already know that Tehran is under pressure because it is running out of water and as it runs out of water it will run out of food and when it runs out of food, it won't be able to keep its citizens totally under the control of the elites. It would be interesting to hear Jack Hopkins respond to this idea. It is a well known fact that the Tigres/Euphrates rivers are well below historical levels and those two rivers feed Iran with water at a more significant degree that most people realize. Already many immigrants going to Europe are going from Syria, Turkey, Iraq because they simply can't grow enough food to survive. The sad news is that climate change will effect mass extinction in many parts of the world more readily than bombs and stupid people like Trump and his manical buddies like Netanyahu, Putin, Orban, and others.
If you want to read something fascinating, find Jeremy Rifkin's "Planet Aqua". Or for a different take on all of this, see if you can find a book entitled "Progress" by Samuel Miller McDonald. The full name is Progress: How one idea built civilization and now threatens to destroy it. It's a heavy slog, but on point in may ways.
#holdfast
#sendbarron
That damn post arrow gets in the way anytime I need to edit the first word!🤣
Not sure if this works for you. The typing is in a small screen.
If you touch the "arrow" at the bottom right of your screen (all the way down), and nothing else, it brings up what you are writing. Still have to be careful of the "submit" button.
Also as people add to the thread in their comments the thing you are at can move.
It is still there, but as comments keep coming it can move.
Or you can wait a bit until the comments settle down. Sometimes takes a while.
Hopes this helps.
Good details to know, thanks, Jack. I’m wondering if this ever or still applies to the USA:
“Iran isn’t built that way.
Its ruling class is not a single personality cult. It is layered, redundant, and institutional.”
Mary E...that's some keen questioning!
Yes... it applies to the U.S. by design.
We’re built as a layered system: separated powers...federalism...courts...and a professional civil service that persists across presidents.
What’s not guaranteed is the culture that keeps that system functioning. When leaders demand personal loyalty...bypass norms...or try to concentrate control over enforcement and staffing...the system can be pressured toward personality-rule even if the Constitution doesn’t change. Unfortunately.
-Jack
I love being informed and educated. Thanks Jack.
Me too, Jimmy! You're welcome. We all get to learn in this community...from each other.
I'm glad you're here.
-Jack
I have lived in six Muslim countries, visited more, including lived in Iran 18 months just before Khomeini returned to the country [ his fiery sermons and speeches were the most popular cassettes on the street]. Persians have a very ingrained sense of recognition and pride in their political-cultural longevity, which in the scheme of things ,has not been Islamic for most of existence, and even now is not mainstream being largely Shia. Judaism, Zoroastrianism, Bahai - those 2 very tiny slivers, and Christianity [Armenian Orthodox, Chaldean.] It was a mixed salad but culturally was more cohesive than one might expect. Having their collective hand on the button should not only scare us, but the Arabian peninsula, the Med and Indian Ocean . Reminding that a Local pi**ing contest involves nukes in Israel, Iran, Pakistan and India .
Lynne, your LIVED experience there matters...a hell of a lot; 18 months in Iran right before Khomeini returned (and the cassette sermons) is REAL ground truth.
You’re also dead-on about Persian civilizational memory: it predates the regime...predates Islam...and it creates a cohesion outsiders routinely miss.
Shia distinctiveness plus that long political-cultural pride...changes how Iran absorbs pressure.
On nukes...Israel is widely understood to have them; Pakistan and India openly do...Iran doesn’t have an acknowledged arsenal...BUT...has advanced capabilities.
That mix is exactly why “local” contests can become regional...miscalculation is the danger when multiple nuclear-armed....or near-threshold actors...sit in overlapping theaters.
Sounds like you've lived a rich...and meaningful life. I've learned more from traveling abroad than I ever learned from a book.
-Jack
Thanks, Jack. Your analysis makes complete sense, although every once in awhile I had a synapse failure and thought you were talking about this country.
"Its economy is constrained. Oil exports are limited. Infrastructure is aging. Youth dissatisfaction is real. Brain drain exists."
Remember in 2017? trump was enjoying the "most beautiful chocolate cake" with Xi while,they discussed the bombing of Syria. Never let the murdering of thousands stand in the way of dessert.
Sue
Sue P...I get the synapse glitch. Those stress markers can damn sure feel uncomfortably transferable...even when the context is different.
Yes...I remember that 2017 moment because of what it signaled. Not that leaders don’t conduct grim business over meals (they always have), but...that tone reveals priorities.
When something as lethal as a strike gets narrated through a dessert detail...it tells you how lightly consequences can be carried in the room where decisions get made.
That contrast...spectacle versus gravity...is EXACTLY what I’m trying to keep readers alert to!
-Jack
I appreciate how you list your sources. It's one of the big reasons why I support your work - I know you're doing more than just spewing out an opinion. The analysis you provide is exactly the insight I want on these complicated & complex events were living through. Thank you!
If cutting off the head of a snake could change a regime, I do believe impeachment would have worked.
Jack:
🚩Here is the link from Senator Tammy Duckworth to sign Senator Tim Kaine’s War Resolution Calling Republicans back to Congress Immediately. I signed it and hope more people will sign and share it.
https://act.tammyduckworth.com/signup/tde-em-march26-iran/?source=em260301-1-15&akid=3517%2E813159%2ED1OFJb