Grieve the Political Assassination. Feel the Rage. But Don’t Miss the Target: It’s the Ballot, Not Just the Bullet

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #363

No Votes, No Victory: Why Democrats Must Win Before They Legislate

Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman is dead. So is her husband. Dead, as in they will never take another breath. DEAD.

I shouted loud enough to unintentionally scare the dogs when I saw this on the news. It’s maddening, heart-breaking…and so many other thoughts and feelings all swirling together.

That’s why it’s so critical that we not get confused.

What happened in Minnesota is horrifying. A political assassination on American soil.

If it turns out to be politically motivated…and all signs I’m aware of point that way…it won’t just be a crime—it will be an act of domestic terrorism.

It will be an attempt to silence not just a man…but the very idea of democratic participation.

So yes, we should be angry. We should be grieving. And we should be absolutely clear-eyed about the direction this country is sliding.

But what we shouldn’t do right now is go sprinting off a rhetorical cliff.

And by that, I mean this: Democrats must resist the reflex to make this tragedy primarily about guns.

Not because guns aren’t a problem. They are. Not because better gun laws wouldn’t help. They would. But because you can’t legislate a damn thing without the votes to pass the legislation.

And right now? We don’t have them.

Guns Aren’t the First Problem. Losing Is.

Do you want universal background checks? A national red flag law? A ban on high-capacity magazines? Then you need more than outrage. You need more than hashtags. You need more than MSNBC panelists nodding in agreement.

You need majorities.

You need Senate votes. House votes. A president who will sign the bill. And you need all of that without a Republican-controlled chamber ready to kill anything sane before it even breathes.

That means we have to win. And win big.

The Brutal Math

Here’s the part that no one wants to say out loud:

Republicans don’t lose sleep over gun control polls. They care about power.

And as long as they control enough seats to block or gut reform…the polling doesn’t matter. The press conferences don’t matter. The majority of Americans who want reform don’t matter. Why?

Because only votes in the chamber move the needle.

And to get those? We have to do the work we sometimes ignore when grief takes over: voter registration. Voter turnout. Down-ballot engagement. Unsexy, relentless, boots-on-the-ground organizing.

Don't Trade Strategy for Catharsis

Every time there’s a tragedy, the conversation surges toward gun control. It’s natural. It’s human.

But it’s also often used as a substitute for actual strategic thinking.

The right knows this. They bait the left into exhausting themselves in the outrage cycle…then quietly reinforce their legislative strongholds.

Meanwhile, we do the same dance:

• Hold the vigil

• Make the signs

• Trend the hashtags

• Yell at Mike Johnson…or another MAGA Republican on social media.

Then, later….we lose another race in a state legislature we barely campaigned in.

The Only Thing That Changes Laws

The only thing that changes laws is changing the balance of power.

One more time:

The Only Thing that Changes Laws Is Changing the Balance of Power!

That means flipping seats. It means running candidates in hard districts. It means showing up where Democrats don’t usually win and making the other side fight for it.

Want better gun laws?

• Flip more state legislatures.

• Get a real Senate supermajority.

• Win the White House.

• Hold all of it long enough to codify change.

Until then…shouting about gun laws in the abstract is like arguing over house paint while the foundation is crumbling.

Focused Anger Wins

This isn’t a call to calm down. It’s a call to focus.

Let your anger turn into discipline. Turn your grief into organizing…because that’s what wins.

Anger, when unfocused…is catharsis.

Anger…when channeled…is power.

So yes, be furious that more lives were lost. Be enraged that political violence is becoming normalized.

But remember this:

The only way to stop it is to beat them at the ballot box. Again and again and again.

Not just this November. Every cycle. Every race. Every level.

The Long Road to Legislation

Let’s say we want background checks passed nationwide. Sounds simple, right? It’s not.

Even under Democratic presidents…we’ve lacked the votes. And if Trump…somehow manages to win a third term (Yeah, “crazy talk,” (but we’ve seen him do things experts said could never be done) or any Trump-adjacent chaos candidate wins in 2028…it’s game over for federal action.

If we get crushed in the midterms…you get the picture.

So don’t let your focus be hijacked by the emotional hit of a single issue…no matter how raw and righteous it feels. The issue isn’t just guns.

The issue is power.

And power doesn’t shift because we make morally correct arguments. It shifts because we organize harder…longer…and more effectively than the other side.

How We Actually Win

Here’s what we need to do before we dream about gun legislation:

• Register every eligible voter who leans our way.

• Rebuild state-level party infrastructure in rural and swing counties.

• Stop writing off red districts entirely.

• Fund local organizers who know the terrain.

• Turn out in midterms like it’s a presidential election.

• Support candidates who can win, even if they aren’t perfect.

You want gun laws? You want democracy protected? You want fascism off the ballot?

Get the votes.

You want the votes?

Do the work.

No Kings, No Excuses

We say "No Kings" like it's a tagline. But it's more than that. It's a declaration that no one man—no party…no strongman….no oligarch—gets to rule without consent.

Well, consent requires participation. Freedom requires discipline. And real change requires winning.

Do we want to scream about guns? Good. We better scream on our way to a voter registration table; shout with a clipboard in our hand. Channel every ounce of fury into a field plan.

That’s how you change this. That’s how you earn the right to govern. And that’s how you make sure that no more Americans die while democracy dies with them.

No Kings.

Just votes.

And that means we’ve got work to do.

I’ll be back soon…with even more.

Keep your eyes peeled and your head on a swivel. This isn’t a video game…where you can hit “start over” once you get killed.

Warmly,

Jack