Congress: They Know He’s Dangerous. They Enable Him Anyway.

You've never seen a multi-layered, political–psychological–sociological deep dive on the subject like this one. I guarantee it.

Congress: They Know He’s Dangerous. They Enable Him Anyway.

You’ve never seen a political–psychological–sociological deep dive like this one. I guarantee it.

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #583: Sunday, October 5th, 2025.

The Uncomfortable Starting Point

You already know the surface story: speeches, soundbites, and a parade of “no comment.”

But let’s talk about what you feel in your gut.

It’s not passivity. It’s not simple cowardice. It’s systemic enablement…a machine that rewards obedience to one man and punishes dissent so brutally that “good people” rationalize the unforgivable.

If you want to understand why Congress (mostly Republicans) stands there…hands in pockets…while lines are crossed they swore never to tolerate…you need to see the machine.

This isn’t an excuse piece. It’s an X-ray.

We’re going to dissect the political incentives…the social wiring…the psychological traps…and the cartel rules that keep decent-seeming officeholders quiet while democracy takes the beating of a lifetime.

By the end, I want two things for you:

1. Iron clarity

2. A strategy.

First Principle: Incentives Beat Opinions

You can’t analyze Congress by what its members say. You analyze them by what they need.

• They need to survive primaries dominated by the angriest…most activated slice of the base.

• They need media oxygen from outlets that punish apostasy and reward stunts.

• They need donor pipelines that snap shut the minute they break ranks.

• They need personal safety…yes…even that. A not-small share fear that the wrong vote could put a target on their back.

When survival incentives reward silence, “principles” get repackaged as “prudence.”

When the quickest route to being retired…bankrupted…or doxxed is to say “no,” most politicians will default to “maybe later.” That’s not noble…but it is predictable.

Rule #1: In modern Washington…the incentive to enable is stronger than the courage to resist….unless the costs of enabling finally exceed the costs of dissent.

Fear…Real, Physical, Personal

We’re going to say it out loud:

Many Republicans were (and are) afraid of their own base. Not every voter. Not even most voters. But the small percentage that merges politics with menace.

When Mitt Romney lifted the curtain on the Senate during impeachment…he described colleagues who privately agreed Trump had crossed lines…and then balked… openly worried about violence from constituents.

“There are deranged people among us,” Romney said. “It only takes one really disturbed person.” That’s not theory; that’s a sitting senator reporting the mood in the room.

And the threat environment is measurable…not imaginary. The U.S. Capitol Police reported 7,501 threat assessment cases in 2023…up from 902 in 2016…and 9,474 cases in 2024. That’s not normal; it’s a pressure cooker around every single vote.

Pile on the daily flood of online death threats…the doxxing…the “we know where you live” messages…and the calculus inside a member’s head shifts from “Is this right?” to “Will my family be safe after I do the right thing?”

Rule #2: Fear dilutes courage. A democracy that tolerates menace is a democracy that trains its leaders to obey the menacing.

The Media Ecosystem That Punishes Independence

If you live in a media universe where any deviation is replayed, mocked, and turned into a fundraising weapon against you…you learn the lesson fast:

Toe the line or get torched.

This is not just vibes; it’s measured.

The peer-reviewed research on cable news persuasion (Martin & Yurukoglu) finds that exposure to Fox News measurably increases Republican vote share.

That is, the media pipeline moves behavior…on the electorate and the elected. The channel position of Fox (an accident of cable lineups) changes what people watch…and their politics shift accordingly. That’s persuasion…not mere reflection.

So imagine you’re a GOP member in a safe district. Your real election is the primary, not the general.

Your voters are living in an information stream where even mild criticism of Trump is treated as apostasy. You can guess what happens next: you stop criticizing. You stop questioning. Then you stop thinking out loud.

Rule #3: If your voters live in a punishment-based media ecology…your career lives in it…too.

Negative Partisanship…The Glue That Seals The Deal

Why do otherwise non-radical Republicans go along? Because they fear Democrats more than they dislike Trump.

This is the engine called negative partisanship…loyalty driven less by love of your party than by hatred or fear of the other.

Political science has documented its rise and how it nationalizes the stakes of every race: if the other side is existentially dangerous…you swallow things you once said you’d never accept.

“Sure, he’s reckless,” the rationalization goes, “but he gives us judges, and the left wants to destroy America.”

In that mental math…anything that keeps your team in power becomes “responsible,” and anything that risks the other side winning becomes “irresponsible.”

Rule #4: When politics becomes an existential cage match…enabling the bully feels like guarding the door.

Cartel Rules…The House As a Protection Racket

Now the structural piece most pundits skip: procedural cartelism.

In the modern House…the majority party controls the agenda. It decides what gets a vote and what never sees daylight.

This isn’t fringe theory; it’s the Cox–McCubbins model: majority leaders use negative agenda control to prevent votes that would split their party or embarrass their leader.

Translation:

If you’re a rank-and-file Republican who wants to restrain Trump or distance the party from a post-truth stunt…leadership can make sure your restraint never reaches the floor. No amendment. No vote. No “I tried.” Silence by design.

Add the informal “Hastert Rule” (don’t bring it up unless a majority of the majority supports it) and you’ve got a lockbox:

A cartel that protects the brand and the leader at the expense of honest deliberation. (And if you cross the cartel…you lose committee slots…fundraising help…and the machinery every member needs to do the job.)

Rule #5: Agenda control converts private doubts into public unanimity. The cartel makes dissent invisible.

The Sociological Trap: Preference Falsification… Spiral of Silence

Now for the human wiring. Most members aren’t villains. They’re conformists trapped in a high-stakes game.

Preference falsification (Timur Kuran):

People hide their true views when the costs of honesty are high; a group can look united while privately fractured.

Spiral of silence (Noelle-Neumann):

The perceived majority view silences the minority; silence then creates the perception of a bigger majority.

Inside the GOP conference…both forces are at work: privately skeptical members see the loudest voices as the “majority,” hide their doubts…and thereby strengthen the loudest voices.

Multiply by 200. Bake for two years. You get “unanimity” for things that unanimity never actually existed for.

Throw in classic Asch-style conformity (humans doubt their senses when the group disagrees) and Milgram-style obedience (humans obey authority even when uncomfortable)…and the trap is complete: decent people nod along while the line is moved…then moved again.

Rule #6: When the cost of honesty exceeds the cost of compliance…compliance becomes “virtue.”

Follow the Money: Primary Markets, Small-Dollar Firehoses, and Post-Congress Careers

If you cross Trump…you don’t just risk a mean segment on TV. You risk a funded primary…a rival supercharged by small-dollar donors and media oxygen.

In a safe district, that’s a career-ender. So “prudence” earns a new definition: don’t poke the base.

Now add the post-Congress career.

K Street remembers team players. Cable bookers remember easy guests. Boards prefer low-drama résumés. Defy the movement at its peak and you’re not just risking a seat…you’re risking your next twenty years.

Rule #7: Money doesn’t just buy ads; it buys silence. The market for obedience is always liquid.

The Moral Anesthesia: How They Talk Themselves Into It

Here are the four stories members tell themselves to sleep at night:

1. “Judges.” “We’re saving the courts; the ends justify the means.”

2. “Lesser evil.” “The left is worse; my job is to stop them first.”

3. “Adult in the room.” “If I leave, a worse person replaces me. I can restrain this from inside.”

4. “Voters decide.” “It’s not my place to overrule the base; democracy means giving them what they want.”

These scripts anesthetize conscience.

They don’t change the underlying fact: enabling begets escalation. Bullies don’t get better when you reward them; they get bolder.

Rule #8: The story you tell yourself can drown out the truth you already know.

Why Some Still Break Ranks (and what that teaches us)

Not everyone complies forever.

Some retire and speak. Some get primaried out. Some decide the oath means more than the seat and vote their conscience.

What’s the pattern?

Security:

Members with strong personal safety nets (wealth, prior careers, legacies) have more room to break.

Constituency:

Members from states/districts with more competitive media diets and broader coalitions can survive dissent.

Crisis:

A threshold event (an attack…a lie so large it shatters denial) snaps them awake.

Notice something? Courage rises when support systems exist. That’s our cue.

The Deep Psychology: Identity Addiction…Sacred Values…and Humiliation Fuel

Trumpism plugs into identity circuits that politics used to leave alone.

It treats politics as a sacred tribe…disagreement as heresy…and humiliation as a stimulant. Why does that matter for Congress?

Because when a leader promises to avenge your humiliations…cultural…economic…personal…loyalty becomes sacred. Sacred loyalty resists facts. It brutalizes dissenters. It blesses tactics it would once have shunned.

Members enabling this aren’t just courting votes.

They’re tapping sacred energy…and once a party binds itself to that current… detaching becomes existentially painful.

Rule #9: When politics becomes a surrogate religion…heresy policing replaces ordinary accountability.

The Reality Check: This Isn’t Normal and It Isn’t Sustainable

It’s Ugly.

A Congress that accepts menace…cartelizes the agenda…lives inside a punishment media system…and baptizes negative partisanship as morality is a Congress that will fail its constitutional test at the exact moment courage is required.

You can see the cracks:

Threats climbing…security briefings now routine…staff turnover burning out the institutional memory…the normal grind of legislating replaced by performative spectacles for the camera. (Threat metrics aren’t a partisan press release; they’re from the Capitol Police. This is the water they’re swimming in.)

Rule #10: A legislature that fears its own voters more than it fears the collapse of law isn’t “representative.” It’s hostage.

The Hopkins Bottom Line: Why Congress “Looks Complacent”

Because the costs of resisting are front-loaded (career…money…menace), and the costs of enabling are back-loaded(democratic decay spread over years). Politicians respond to now. The rest of us live with later.

So yes, a lot of Republicans were never as radical as what they’re allowing. But that’s the point: the machine doesn’t need them to be radical…only obedient.

The machine supplies the pressure. The cartel supplies the rules. The ecosystem supplies the reward. The fear supplies the silence.

That’s the diagnosis. Now we talk cure.

The Field Manual: 18 Pressure Points That Break The Spell

You want to make enabling more expensive than dissent? Here’s how…practical…targeted…immediate.

A. Restructure the electoral incentives

1. Open primaries + ranked-choice voting (RCV). Take power away from the angriest 10% and reward cross-pressure consensus candidates. (States control this. Reform is winnable.)

2. Jungle primaries with top-four advancement. Force general-election accountability earlier in the pipeline.

3. Primary the enablers with serious challengers…but only where the district allows it. Otherwise, see #4.

B. Build safe harbors for dissent

4. Create bipartisan donor escrows that trigger only for members who break ranks at high-stakes votes (impeachment, subpoenas, certification). Make it clear: “Defect on principle, your campaign won’t die.”
5. Security grants for high-risk members who cross the leader. Remove the doxxed-family calculus.
6. Legal defense networks for whistleblowers and staffers who cooperate with investigations.

C. Attack the cartel

7. Rules fights: push for guaranteed floor votes on constitutional threshold matters (e.g., certifying elections, accepting subpoenaed evidence).
8. Committee transparency: force roll-call publication on agenda-setting votes so “negative agenda control” has a cost.

D. Media oxygen rebalancing

9. Rapid-response amplification for any Republican who breaks ranks. Viral praise. Book them on shows. Make courage the algorithmic winner.
10. Advertiser pressure on the worst propaganda slots. Hit the money pipeline that funds the punishment machinery.

E. Voter-level antidotes

11. Local civic cross-bridges: mix partisan audiences in town halls focused on tangible issues (opioids, hospital closures). Break media silos with lived reality.
12. Shame the violence…honor the courage: reward conservatives who explicitly reject menace. Make it socially prestigious to be pro-rule-of-law.

F. Professional consequences

13. Post-Congress career scorecards: publicize which members upheld basic constitutional duties. Corporate boards can’t plead ignorance.
14. Law firms & K Street pledges: require future hires to have clean “constitutional votes” records.

G. Movement hygiene

15. Narrative inoculation: teach citizens how preference falsification and spiral-of-silence work. The moment people understand the trap…vocal minorities lose some of their spell.
16. Sacred-value reset: insist that the vote itself is sacred…not any man. Ritualize it. Celebrate it. Re-sanctify process over personality.

H. Electoral hardball

17. Targeted turnout in “wobble” districts where negative partisanship is weakest and local press still matters.
18. Ballot-level accountability: put rule-of-law referenda on local ballots to force public commitments across party lines.

Strategy in one line: Lower the cost of courage…raise the cost of complicity.

The Psychology Toolkit For Citizens (and staffers) stuck inside the machine

Because let’s be honest: some of you reading this work in that building. Here’s a short psychological toolkit you can deploy tomorrow.

Name the trap (out loud).

“This looks like preference falsification.” Language turns fog into form…and form into action.

Micro-coalitions:

Find three coworkers who share your view. Tiny groups beat isolation.

Pre-commitment:

Write down red lines with dates. Share with your micro-coalition. When the moment hits, you don’t negotiate with fear.

Public signals:

Symbolic acts matter…co-sponsor…letter-sign…quietly leak the truth to credible reporters.

Exit plan:

Pack a parachute before you jump (next job…donor escrow…legal counsel). Courage without a plan is martyrdom. Courage with a plan is leadership.

What If They Don’t Change?

Then we change the environment around them.

Reform the rules. Fund the dissenters. Call out the menace. Starve the propaganda. Make it more profitable…more prestigious…and safer to be a constitutional conservative than a courtier.

Will some still choose the court? Of course. But here’s the truth: power respects pain.

If enabling starts to hurt…electorally…financially…reputationally…behaviors will change long before hearts do.

A Word to Republicans Who Are Exhausted and Quietly Furious

You’re not alone. A lot of you never signed up for this.

You wanted low taxes…conservative judges…and a government that behaves itself. You didn’t want a leader who treats the law as a doormat.

Here’s the invitation: say it.

Not on Twitter; to your local party chair…your council…your church small group…your fellow business owners. You’d be shocked how many are thinking the same thing and hiding it because they think no one else will stand up.

That’s how preference falsification collapses:

One person speaks,…three nod…ten follow…and a “unanimous” facade cracks in a week.

Something to think about

Congress isn’t complacent because nothing’s wrong. Congress looks complacent because something is very wrong…a convergence of menace…media incentives…cartel rules…negative partisanship…donor math…and human psychology that punishes conscience and rewards complicity.

If you want a different Congress…you don’t beg for better souls. You change the math.

Make courage cheaper. Make complicity expensive. And never forget: they’re only “untouchable” until the day they aren’t.

That’s the day a handful of citizens decided “no more,” and meant it.

BONUS: Two Hidden Gears That Keep Congress Captive

You just read the X-ray. Now I’m handing you the MRI:

Two deep mechanisms almost no TV segment ever explains…but every operative in the building understands. Master these…and the “mystery” of congressional complicity stops being mysterious.

How Leadership Kills a Floor Vote in 6 Quiet Steps

Everyone fixates on the big vote that never happens. Here’s how it never happens.

Step 0: The Whip Board (the wall nobody shows you).

Every conference keeps a live spreadsheet…names down the left…pressure points across the top: Primary risk…Donor dependence…Committee vulnerability…Media exposure…Personal safety…Leadership asks.

Each member wears color codes (solid/lean/squishy). This is where “principle” goes to be quantified.

Step 1: Gate the Rule.

In the House…nothing hits the floor without a special rule from the Rules Committee. Leadership assigns a “structured rule” (cherry-picks which amendments are in order) or a closed rule (no amendments).

If they smell a bipartisan coalition forming against the leadership line…they simply… don’t report the rule. No rule = no vote. End of story.

Step 2: Smother in the Speaker’s Office.

Before the rule…there’s a “walk-through” in the Speaker’s office: staff scans which amendments could pass with cross-party votes and embarrass the leader.

Those amendments quietly never get made in order. The public sees a “full debate.” Insiders see a pre-choked menu.

Step 3: Committee as Kill Room.

If leadership wants plausible deniability…they route the threat to committee and let it “ripen.”

Translation: die in markup…drown in “re-referral,” or get “held at the desk” pending “further stakeholder input.” (Stakeholder = donor or group that writes scorecards.)

Step 4: The Hastert Veto.

Even if a bill could pass on the floor with the other party’s votes…the informal “majority of the majority” rule blocks it.

That’s the cartel device: better to deny your own chamber a functioning majority than let a bipartisan vote undercut the boss.

Step 5: The Calendar Mirage.

Leadership schedules a “message week” (narrow…base-pleasing bills) and declares “floor time is tight.” The target bill is “next work period.” There’s always another next. Calendar as chloroform.

Step 6: Retaliation as Teaching Tool.

A member who pushes past this gauntlet sees the consequences within 48 hours: a subcommittee gavel disappears…a district project goes dark…the NRCC skips a transfer…a friendly PAC “sits out” the quarter…bookers dry up…a primary poll appears in the local paper. The lesson is public…not to punish one…but to educate fifty.

Tells you can track from home (receipts, not vibes):

Rules Committee prints:

Did the rule allow “Queen of the Hill” (competing amendments) or a choke? (If not, leadership is air-tightening the options.)

Amendments list:

Which bipartisan amendments were “self-executed” (adopted automatically) and which were declared “not in order”? That’s the cartel fingerprint.

Committee videos/minutes:

Watch for “hold over” and “without objection, laid on the table.” That’s code for we’re burying it.

Dear Colleague emails:

When you see a sudden flood of “messaging guidance” on an unrelated culture-war topic…they’re switching the news cycle while a real vote is quietly strangled.

How citizens spring the trap:

• Demand your member post every amendment they submitted and whether Rules allowed it.

• Force local press to cover the rule…not just “the bill.” (Headline: “Leadership Blocks Floor Vote on Bipartisan Amendment…Procedural Rule Used to Silence Dissent.”)

• Build a five-person “Rules Watch” team in your district to translate these steps into plain English within 12 hours. Speed kills spin.

How a Funded Primary Materializes in 72 Hours

Members don’t just fear angry tweets.

They fear a turnkey primary operation…pre-packaged rage…wired money…and a media dogpile…landing on their heads by Friday.

Here’s the kit.

Hour 0–6: The Clip.

Member goes off-script (votes against the boss, supports an investigation, refuses to parrot a lie). A 40-second video is clipped…captioned…and pushed to the outrage ecosystem: “Betrayal.” It is built for share velocity…not accuracy.

Hour 6–18: The Pledge.

Three advocacy accounts post a litmus test pledge that conveniently maps onto the leader’s grievance of the week. Member didn’t sign? “Weak.” Signed but late? “Coward.” The point isn’t policy; it’s submission.

Hour 18–36: The Money Hose.

A “patriot PAC” lights up small-dollar fundraising. Ads target the member’s base ZIPs: “He sold you out.”

Meanwhile, a donor whisper network signals to local whales: “Stand down; we’re testing replacements.” The member’s Q2/Q3 goals evaporate.

Hour 36–54: The Body Double.

A challenger appears with instant trappings: logo…video…treasurer…consultant…a “grassroots coalition” that didn’t exist yesterday.

Why so fast? Because vendors keep template campaigns on ice. Press will write “shocking momentum” stories based on synthetic metrics (new followers, ActBlue/WinRed spikes) created by a spend under 25K.

Hour 54–72: The Cage Lowers.

Allies go quiet. Committee chairs stop returning calls. A primary poll…no methodology disclosed…puts the incumbent “in trouble.”

Cable bookers cease invitations. Local talk radio reruns the 40-second clip every hour. The member’s team goes defensive…and the fear loop closes: cave now or face months of bleeding.

Tells you can track from home:

FEC filings:

Watch for a challenger committee filed within 72 hours of an apostasy moment. If the treasurer/consultant matches outfits used in prior purges…you’ve ID’d the enforcement vendor.

Ad libraries (Meta/Google):

Look for synchronized buys targeting only the member’s counties…same copy…dozens of creatives. That’s a turnkey shop at work.

Bulk text footprints:

New short codes hitting district numbers in bursts? That’s an outside vendor flipping the switch.

Local GOP calendar:

A “special meeting” pops up immediately after the apostasy. They’re lining up county-party censure to justify the coming primary.

How citizens jam the machine:

Pre-commit donor escrows:

A standing fund that releases only when a member takes a conscience vote. It says: If you jump…the net appears.

Fact-first rapid response:

A district team that posts side-by-side receipts within six hours: clip vs. full context… bill text…who profits.

Vendor daylighting:

Build a list of the repeat consultants/treasurers who staff these synthetic primaries. Name them. When vendors become the story…the hit job loses its invisibility cloak.

Local clergy/civic statement:

A templated “We reject political menace” letter with pre-committed signers. When the cage lowers…release it. It gives cover to normal Republicans who hate the purge culture but fear being first.

The “WOW!” Nugget: The Five-Yes Rule (Why a handful of insiders can save a conscience vote)

Everyone asks, “Why won’t anyone be first?” Here’s the insider math.

In a high-risk vote…a member is waiting to see five public “yes” signals before they jump:

1. One donor (local or national) who pledges to replace lost PAC money.

2. One media platform that promises a clean…uninterrupted segment to explain the vote.

3. One institutional ally (committee chair…governor…or respected elder) who signals no retaliation.

4. One civic shield (clergy…veterans…business council) ready to bless the vote in district terms.

5. One security plan (briefed by Capitol Police or local sheriff) that covers the family for the next 72 hours.

Hit all five before the vote and you’ll be shocked how many “privately torn” members suddenly find courage. Miss two of them and watch the spreadsheet win.

Action for readers:

Pick one of the five and own it in your district. Become the donor…the platform…the ally…the shield…or the security connector. Courage scales when the support scaffolding is real.

Field Test: How to Catch the Next Cover-Up in 48 Hours

1. Subscribe to the Rules Committee feed + your member’s committee calendars. When leadership drops a contentious item…watch the rule text before you watch Twitter.

2. Set alerts for new committees/treasurers filed in your district at the FEC. A sudden filing after a conscience flare-up = the purge machine is spinning up.

3. Demand a one-page explainer from your member’s office on any amendment that was “not in order.” Force them to admit the cartel move in writing.

4. Track ad buys in your local DMA (Meta/Google libraries). Screenshot…archive…compare. When the same vendor/creative set appears across multiple purges… publish the Enforcement Vendor List.

That’s how you turn “they all enable him” into “here’s the lever…here’s the fulcrum… here’s the push.”

Bottom line:

Complicity isn’t magic. It’s mechanics…rules…spreadsheets…vendors…and fear. Break the mechanics and you break the spell.

If you like the way I explain things…clearly…without the media fog… if you appreciate analysis that connects the political…the psychological…and the human… and if you want more than headlines….you want context…receipts…and real-world action steps…then join the paid side of this newsletter.

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Back soon,

-Jack

Sources (selected)

• Romney on colleagues’ fear of violence (McKay Coppins, The Atlantic, 2023).

• Threats to Members statistics (U.S. Capitol Police press releases, 2023 & 2025; Axios 2024 recap).

• Cable news persuasion evidence (Martin & Yurukoglu, American Economic Review, 2017; NBER working paper).

• Negative partisanship & nationalization (Abramowitz & Webster research; Abramowitz’s The Great Alignment; PBS explainer).

• Cartel/agenda control theory (Cox & McCubbins; negative agenda control summaries).