A Jet Shot Down: They Trained Them to Survive This. Thank God Someone Did. Because Their Commander In Chief Sure As Hell Didn’t.

An F-15E Strike Eagle. The same aircraft that went down over Iran on Friday. One crew member was rescued. One remains missing. Somewhere tonight, their SERE training may be all that stands between them and what comes next.

A Jet Shot Down: They Trained Them to Survive This. Thank God Someone Did. Because Their Commander In Chief Sure As Hell Didn’t.

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #844 Special Edition: Saturday, April 5th, 2026

Somewhere in southwestern Iran right now, there is an American whose name we don’t know, whose condition we don’t know…and whose fate we don’t know.

They may be moving through darkness. Rationing water. Reading terrain. Running on training…and adrenaline…and the sheer refusal to quit…that was beaten into them in a remote mountain desert in California.

Or…they may be sitting across from an Iranian interrogator right now. Holding onto four things: name, rank, service number, date of birth…and nothing else. Exactly as they were trained.

Either way, someone prepared them for this moment.

That someone was not the man who posted “KEEP THE OIL, ANYONE?” while the search was still active.

Let’s talk about who it actually was.

The School That Exists For Exactly This Moment

Most Americans couldn’t tell you what SERE stands for.

Survival. Evasion. Resistance. Escape.

The United States Navy runs one of the most demanding versions of this program on the planet…tucked into the brutal high desert of the Cleveland National Forest near Warner Springs, California.

Operated by the Fleet Aviation Specialized Operational Training Group out of NAS North Island. No fanfare. No press releases.

Just some of the hardest training in the American military, delivered to the people most likely to need it…pilots…aircrew…special warfare personnel. The people who fly into harm’s way and sometimes don’t fly back out.

It is not optional.

It is not a weekend seminar.

And…it may be the only reason an American is still alive in Iran tonight.

What They Actually Do To You There

SERE Level C…the highest and most intensive level…is reserved for personnel whose jobs carry a high risk of capture. Whose rank or role makes them a target. Whose exploitation value to an enemy is significant.

Fighter pilots qualify.

Here is what the program builds.

Survival.

How to stay alive with nothing. No gear. No support. No safety net. Water. Shelter. Navigation. Signaling for rescue without signaling to the enemy.

If that crew member is evading right now in the mountains and river valleys of southwestern Iran…and they may be…this is what they’re running on.

Evasion.

How to move through hostile territory without being caught. How to avoid the predictable patterns that get people killed. How to carry the weight of being alone, hunted, and terrified…and keep moving anyway.

SERE replicates this with real field exercises. Real pursuit. Real terrain. Real fear. On purpose.

Resistance.

The hardest part. The most classified part. Simulated captivity. Real interrogation techniques. Isolation. Psychological pressure calibrated to replicate what an actual captor will do.

The goal isn’t to make it comfortable. The goal is to make the real thing familiar. To give a captured service member one thought to hold onto in the worst moment of their life:

I have been here. I survived it. I know what this is. Name. Rank. Service number. Date of birth. Nothing else. Not because they’re defiant. Because they’re disciplined. There is a difference. Discipline lasts longer.

Escape.

How to read a captor. How to identify the moment. How to plan and execute when that moment comes. Built on the hard lessons of Korea. Vietnam. Every American who came home from captivity and sat down with a debriefer and said…here is what they did.

Here is what worked. Here is what didn’t. That knowledge lives inside this program.

The entire thing…every cold night in the desert…every simulated interrogation…every moment of manufactured misery…exists to accomplish one mission.

Return with honor.

The Man Behind The Curtain

I want to tell you about someone you’ve never heard of.

His name is Craig Cavinder.

Former shipmate. One of my oldest friends. Partner in more “crime” than either of us should probably admit to. Before he retired from the United States Navy in 2007, Craig was a Navy Chief Petty Officer who worked inside the SERE School at Warner Springs, California.

The same school. The same program. The same pipeline that may be keeping an American alive in Iran tonight.

Craig doesn’t talk loosely about what happens inside that program. He’s not supposed to. The details are classified for good reason…if an adversary knows exactly what resistance training looks like…they design around it.

What I can tell you is that Craig spent years in that pipeline understanding…at an expert level…what it takes to prepare a human being for the worst day of their life.

For the last fifteen years…he has taken that expertise to Prevailance, Inc….a Service-Disabled Veteran Owned Small Business out of Virginia Beach, Virginia…that has quietly become one of the most trusted professional services providers to the Department of Defense and NATO.

You haven’t heard of Prevailance. You’re not supposed to. That’s how this kind of work gets done.

What they do is unglamorous and essential. They train America’s warriors. They build the curriculum. They run the field exercises.

They provide direct instructional support for the Code of Conduct and SERE programs…in classrooms…in laboratories… and…in the field environments where the training gets real.

When the Navy needed a trusted industry partner to prepare sailors for survival situations, they didn’t call a contractor with a slick website and a lobbying budget. They called Prevailance.

Craig Cavinder is part of that infrastructure. Fifteen years of accumulated expertise…on top of twenty-years of experience doing the same as an enlisted member of the United States Navy…from the mountains above Warner Springs to the halls of a defense company…that operates at the sharp edge of American military readiness.

A man whose life’s work is the answer to a question most people never think to ask:

What happens to our people when everything goes wrong?

He spent his career making sure they’d know what to do.

The Contrast That Should Disgrace Us

Friday. An American goes down over Iran.

Iran broadcasts a bounty offer on state television for anyone who finds them alive.

Iranian police fire on the rescue helicopters.

A second plane goes down. Two more helicopters get hit.

And…the President of the United States…briefed on all of it…posts this on Truth Social:

“KEEP THE OIL, ANYONE?”

Then the White House calls a press lid. Goes dark. Done for the day.

When a reporter gets him on the phone and asks whether the downed jet will affect negotiations with Iran, here is the full answer from the Commander in Chief of the United States Armed Forces:

“No, not at all. No, it’s war. We’re in war.”

That’s it.

No address to the nation. No visible weight. No apparent understanding that somewhere in southwestern Iran…someone he sent into skies he called “100% annihilated” is now alone…hunted…and dependent on training…not on him…to survive.

Here is the sentence I want burned into your memory:

The man who told that pilot the sky was safe…posted about oil while they were missing.

The men and women who actually prepared that pilot for this moment…spent careers in a desert in California…making sure that when the worst happened…our people would know what to do.

One of those men is my friend Craig Cavinder.

Trump…will never know his name.

What We Owe

The Code of Conduct doesn’t care who the president is.

The training doesn’t care who the president is.

The discipline that is keeping…or may be keeping…an American alive in Iran tonight does not draw its strength from Truth Social posts or primetime addresses or four-word oil jokes.

It draws its strength from Warner Springs. From the men and women who built that program…and have sustained it for decades.

From the Craig Cavinders of this military who gave careers to a pipeline most Americans don’t know exists…because it works best when nobody has to talk about it.

They did their jobs.

Now we need to do ours.

Don’t look away. Don’t let this get buried under the next news cycle. Keep saying the name of that missing crew member…whoever they are…until they come home.

Stay clear. Stay steady. Stay dangerous.

#HoldFast.

Back soon.

-Jack

Jack Hopkins

With every ounce of respect I have…for Craig Cavinder, USN (Ret.), and for every instructor who has ever walked a student through the gates of SERE School. You trained them to survive this. The country owes you a debt it will never fully repay.

P.S. Trump will take credit if that crew member comes home. Remember who actually brought them home. It wasn't him. It was the people who spent careers in a desert in California…making sure our warriors knew what to do when their commander failed them. Remember that.

Sources

SERE School — US Navy, Warner Springs, California / Fleet Aviation Specialized Operational Training Group:SERE Training Overview — Wikipedia | US Air Force SERE Specialist Program

SERE Level C — Code of Conduct training, high-risk personnel: Wikipedia — SERE Levels and History | Prevailance SERE Instructor Position — West

Prevailance, Inc. — Company Overview: Prevailance Official Website | Prevailance — LinkedIn

Prevailance — SERE and Code of Conduct Instructional Support: Prevailance Instructional Services | Navy CENSECFOR SERE Award

Prevailance — Company History and Founding: Prevailance Our History

Prevailance — Training and Readiness Services: Prevailance Training and Readiness

Prevailance — Service-Disabled Veteran Owned Small Business serving DoD and NATO: Prevailance Services Overview | Bloomberg Company Profile

F-15E shot down over Iran — crew member rescued, second missing: Axios | CBS News | Washington Post | Military.com

A-10 struck, rescue helicopters hit by Iranian fire: Washington Post | Newsweek Live Updates

Iranian police filmed firing on US rescue helicopters: CNN Live Updates

Iran offers reward for captured American service member: CBS News Live Updates | The Hill

Trump: “They have no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated. We are unstoppable.” Axios

Trump posts “KEEP THE OIL, ANYONE?” — White House calls press lid: Newsweek | CNN Live Updates

Trump: “No, not at all. No, it’s war. We’re in war.” NBC News | Newsweek