A Friend Asked for My No-B.S. Forecast on Democracy: Here’s What I Told Him

Before the noise drowns it out, read the only honest forecast I’m willing to stand behind.

This photo is in honor of my mother, who left this earth a year ago this week. This was in San Diego, CA, when I returned home from the Gulf from a deployment on the USS Nimitz. I feel her presence every day. I was fortunate to have her as my mother.

A Friend Asked for My No-B.S. Forecast on Democracy: Here’s What I Told Him

Before the noise drowns it out…read the only honest forecast I’m willing to stand behind.

The Jack Hopkins Now Newsletter #601: Wednesday, October 15th, 2025.

Over Coffee: The Hard Talk You’ve Been Waiting For

This morning I met a longtime friend for coffee. He’s someone who knows what I’m doing…what I’ve been through…where I lean…and what I see in the shadows. He looks me in the eye as we pour the steaming cups and says:

“Look…I need you to give me a no-f*cking-bullshit take on the next year. Not some bland article for your newsletter or social media. To me. A friend I trust with my life. What do you see coming for democracy in this country?”

His tone was urgent…raw.

No spin, no safe zones. And for the next hour…I laid it out.

I’m writing it now…for you…my reader…because I want you to have that same unvarnished conversation. This is not a marketing piece. This is a confession…a battle plan…and a warning.

So settle in. I’m taking the gloves off.

Wealth of Context…but No Guarantees

We begin with what isn’t:

This is not a prediction done with perfect confidence. The next year is bound with contingencies…forces…surprises.

But I believe in patterns. I believe in the gravity of institutions, of incentives…and of human nature under pressure.

And in that space…I see a few trajectories that feel more probable than not.

When I say “more likely,” I’m staking out territory I believe in…not certainty. But I’ll be bold: if you’re counting on democracy comfortably coasting…you’re asking for a shock.

What I Think Is More Likely

Here’s what I told him, over steamed coffee and the Missouri morning light, broken into five fronts. You’ll see why I’m no “optimism salesman” today.

1. Norm Erosion Accelerates

The rules we once accepted as inviolable…the boundaries of executive overreach… deference to independent agencies…the integrity of inspections and oversight…they will be tested again.

What used to scandalize will become incremental. We’ll see more bending of procedure…more reliance on “emergency” powers…more quiet moves to centralize decision-making.

Once small erosions stack…bigger changes become easier. And those who engineered the erosion will argue it’s just efficiency, urgency, a response to “threats”…masking the consolidation.

2. Legal & Institutional Fronts Become Battle Zones

Courts will be war zones. Legislative bodies will push against internal checks. Governors, secretaries of state, election boards…all will be theaters of confrontation.

You’ll see:

• Challenges to federal laws that regulate state election procedures.

• Efforts to defang or eliminate watchdog offices (inspectors, ethics boards, ISPs, oversight divisions).

• More intergovernmental fights…state versus state…city versus state…federal versus state…over who controls what.

The judiciary’s positioning is pivotal. Conservative courts may bend toward “state autonomy” models, weakening federal oversight. Judicial victories will ripple across multiple elections.